Pessimism is far too easy
The 2 big trends that brought us here -- autos and housing -- are not going away so readily.
This is the theme of the hour, and when we're faced with smoking hot numbers that might be cooling -- and I acknowledge that fact -- I like to go back to why they might be good in the first place.
Right now there are plenty of projections that the U.S. might be building as many as 1 million homes a year. Weyerhaeuser (WY) said that the other day on Scott Wapner's "Fast Money Halftime Report." This number is considered to be a big deal. But we could probably use another 50% more homes, given the dearth of inventory in California, Florida and Arizona -- and that's especially if immigration reforms are made and the birthrate keeps coming back.
Simply put, 1 million new homes isn't a stretch goal. Despite the National Association of Home Builders' newfound cautious outlook, and because of the Toll (TOL) conference call -- which was actually positive -- I don't think the country will have a problem topping that number. That's good news for this economy that keeps getting factored out.
We're also betting that the U.S. could produce as many as 15 million cars this year. Again, this is regarded as a goodly amount. It's the "over," so to speak. But similar to housing -- for which a few years ago we built a fraction of what used to be built -- we're still trying to catch up with demand. We built only about 9 million cars a few years ago. Now the fleet is aging. There are more people. Gasoline costs more, too. So you need to buy a new car that guzzles less.
In other words, yes, we may see a temporary impact from the end of the payroll tax holiday and higher taxes for the wealthy. But these two trends, autos and housing, aren't running out of long-term steam, even if some think the market is taking a breather.
During days like Wednesday and Thursday, it's very easy to pronounce that every good trend is in jeopardy. I couldn't believe how many execs said that the looming sequestration is going to hurt them. It was almost as if they broke out the fiscal cliff memo. Would they have said this if the market had been flat? I don't know. A lot of self-fulfilling political thinking has been part and parcel to this market ever since President Obama was first elected.
But I come back to saying there's innate pent-up demand, and it's not going to be put on hold because of the changes in taxes or because of sequestration.
It's always right to worry about trends when the stocks are toppy. You get gun-shy. You might have wanted to buy Toll at $28 going to $38, but you never seem to want to buy Toll at $33 after it's already been to $38, right? Plus, given that so many people are chartists, our reaction to any stock that has gone up and then come down is that a head-and-shoulders pattern is upon us. They hit up the chart, it's hideous and they back down.
So, the stock loses its always-skittish defenders in no time. I didn't like some genuine pieces of the Toll quarter, like average price of homes sold. The company has been a numbers-beater ever since things started to get better, so it's logical to question whether that string is over.
But as I wrote the other day, we have seen so much forgiveness in this market. So, why should we think that, in a few days, it won't be forgiven again, especially as Toll approaches -- say -- $30 to $31?
Or do you mean to tell me that the only opportunity in this stock market comes from companies that report perfect quarters and are on an endless northern trajectory, and that everything else is inedible? Would you say the market is a perpetual-motion machine and that now the motion can only be down? If a stock is down, it must stay down?
That certainly hasn't been the case until Wednesday.
I just don't think you can presume that two down days means the end of the rally -- and I'm presuming a bad day today, or even one or two more down sessions. I certainly don't think the big theses that have brought the market here -- autos and housing -- are now dead because Owens Corning (OC) and Toll Brothers missed Wednesday, or because Ford (F) missed not that long ago.
It just seems way too pat to me. I'm from the school that said we ran too much, that the declines are always sharper than the advances and that the market is shaking people out. We're now going to hear sequestration horror stories into the end of the month. Then the market could be ready for another advance, because the trends that brought us here aren't going away that easily, even though some of the points the market just put on sure are.
Jim Cramer is a co-founder of TheStreet and contributes daily market commentary to the financial news network's sites. Follow his trades for Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust and is long WY.
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Perhaps I deal more at the local level. I don't deal with Toll Brothers, but I do deal with Realtors and Home Builders and what I see is a barely survival level and potential bankruptcy. Home sales are not soaring and home prices are still dropping. There is no robust recovery. And that's here in NJ which wasn't one of the worst hit states.
I sold my Weyerhauser a bit ago, and I expect to buy it back much,much cheaper. In fact I'm selling a few things becasue I smell a sale on Precious Metals.
JC, you are so superficial in this article you could be on of those "The Real Wives of ....... " on the tube.
no mention of the huge hedgie players buying homes on the cheap with zero interest in order to turn around and rent them. as soon as the rates rise this "housing trend" will go up in a puff of smoke on the wind. california hot? of course - the wealthy chinese have looted their country and are now buying US housing in advance of fleeing the country like so many cockroaches when the lights go on.
car bubble anyone? car loan credit is the most lax in decades now that the industry has fallen in love with the repo man and consumers have become certain that they just have to grab up stuff while rates are zero. as in the housing bubble, if you can fog a mirror you can get a car loan or lease at any of the big brands dealerships (they should just be called "dealers"). as gas rises and sequestration sets in the economy will slow, the fringe workers will be cast aside, and the repo cars will have nowhere to go, inventory builds as these low mileage cars increase in supply and the car bubble bursts.
you don't play chess do you?? oh, sorry, guess you are too busy shopping for "slacks" and putting on that makeup for the sheeple ......
at best new home DESIGNS will change to accomodate multi family dwellings with shared living and cooking quarters. but i doubt we'll see any serious change in home building progress,
"everyone" was living with mom-dad-other the past few years and there's little reason to see that change suddenly NOW. people learned the lesson of getting screwed by job layoffs, etc. they will be extremely cautious.
I have really been wondering how J. Cramer would look in a Dress and a Wig...
Maybe Active has a great idea, for a new Market/investing reality show..
We can just call it "The Biotches from Westwick."
Nice BUY call on monday cramer ......I am sure you made your paymasters happy with that one --- they get out and the little guy gets hosed again .....
"I have really been wondering how J. Cramer would look in a Dress and a Wig...
Maybe Active has a great idea, for a new Market/investing reality show.."
I think this is how he spends his weekends so there must be pics somewhere.
but-- you're too stupid and "canadian" to figure out multiple voters , dead voters = Fraud
however, your ASININE comment about Apple someday going down shows the complete lack of intelligence , maturity and understanding of business.
OF COURSE ANY STOCK WILL DROP , CRETIN.
Also , to compare the 2 situations , AGAIN shows what a worthless, immature turd you really are !
Do you even hold a job ?
Seriously, STUPID IS FOREVER !
yup still breathing after a nice , relaxing lunch !
So much for the lefty ability to predict the future or get ANYTHING right for that matter
Yes, the civility of the loony, medicated left. So noble, so caring, so share the wealth, so much "fairness", so little hatred, so "un " racist
LMFAO @ U
Look at you three cretins posts- LOL
Die, choke --LOL
Do you three losers EVER get ANYTHING right in your entire , worthless lives ?
testing -- testing -- testing
yup still here !
Believe only what Obuma and his media henchman tell you !
Arab Spring !
Bin Laden Dead /GM (unions) Alive !
The economy is actually recovering ! (uhh JOE- Does gas pricing factor in, schmuck ?)
I will go through the budget with a scalpel !
You will not pay one dime more in ----
a) Health Care
b) QE5 !
The attack was caused by students protesting a video (armed with rockets !)
We really need to pass QE 1 and 2 and 3 or else the world stops turning !
REALITY CHECK TIME FOR LEFTY CRETINS
16 Million on food stamps
45 million unemployed (STILL AT ALMOST 8% - 4 YEARS of NEAR OR OVER 8% = PATHETIC)
Home Prices STILL down 40%
STILL NO jobs out there
Growth - None !
The Deficit - STILL AT 16 TRILLION AND GROWING !
Budgets passed in 4 years = ZERO !
Budgets proposed in 4 years = ZERO !
Gas is DOUBLE what it was on day one of Obuma reign !
HOWEVER - for the sake of fair play
WE DO HAVE :
Free Condom !!
Amnesty to parasites , I mean illegal's , I mean "Undocumented" people
Gay Marriage !!
Aren't we lucky ?
Can you clarify for us mere mortals ?
When our notes to China are increased by interest rates rising , there will be hell to pay.
when Mortgages rates go to 6 % it will drop the market like a rock.
Consumer goods ?
These lefty cretins think you can borrow , spend and tax without ANY consequences.
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