Look for an opportunity to buy Deere

If there is any weakness in the stock after Wednesday's lowered guidance, seize the chance.

By Jim J. Jubak Feb 14, 2013 10:04AM
Image: Combines in field (Mark Karrass/Corbis/Corbis)Deere's (DE) earnings and guidance announced Wednesday morning remind me -- in direction if not in degree -- of the earnings Cummins (CMI) reported on Feb. 6.
Like Cummins, Deere announced a substantial earnings surprise for its first quarter fiscal 2013 of 25 cents a share -- 15 cents for Deere if you back out lower-than-expected tax rates for the quarter. As at Cummins, sales growth didn't keep up with the earnings surprise. Revenue climbed 11% year-over-year to $6.79 billion, just slightly ahead of the $6.74 billion of Wall Street consensus.

And then, following the earnings announcement, Deere, like Cummins, lowered guidance for the next quarter. Not as drastically as Cummins, which talked of weakness in the first half, but Deere did guide down for the second quarter. The company lowered sales guidance for the next quarter to $9.78 billion, compared to the Wall Street consensus of $9.83 billion. For the full 2013 fiscal year, Deere told analysts to expect 4% revenue growth to annual sales of $35.5 billion. The Wall Street consensus before the call was $35.3 billion. Deere also raised its forecast for 2013 net income to $3.3 billion from the consensus $3.2 billion.

The increase in full-year guidance is pretty much a reflection of the just-announced first-quarter surprise. In other words, Deere isn't looking forward to any big jump in farm, construction, and forestry equipment sales in the rest of 2013. That makes sense given Deere's forecast for a slight drop in U.S. farm cash income to $393.2 billion from $402.5 billion. When farmers have less money, even a little less money, they tend to buy less equipment.

To the degree the company has a problem beyond the normal fluctuations in farm income sales that come with weather and commodities prices, it is in the construction and forestry equipment unit. Although farm equipment sales climbed 16.2% in the quarter year over year, construction and forestry sales fell 6.7%. And in contrast to farm equipment, where margins climbed 1.8 percentage points year over year to 14%, margins in construction and forestry came in at a low 5.5%.

So how do you think about this quarter and about Deere? (The stock is a member of my long-term Jubak Picks 50 portfolio.) I think the continued sales strength in farm equipment and the continued strong margins in that business support Deere's position as one of the best stocks to use to profit from the growth in food commodity prices that is being driven by increasing global demand for more and better food as world incomes rise.

If there is any weakness in the stock caused by worries over second-quarter earnings after Wednesday's lowered guidance, I'd use it as a chance to add to positions in the stock. With Deere, I don't think you have to worry much about industry cycles as you do with a Cummins. This is one to hold as long as the prices for food commodities remain strong and as long as the market isn't questioning the long-term uptrend in those prices.

At the time of this writing, Jim Jubak didn't own shares of any companies mentioned in this post in personal portfolios. The mutual fund he manages, Jubak Global Equity Fund (JUBAX), may or may not own positions in any stock mentioned. The fund did not own shares of Cummins or Deere as of the end of September. For a full list of the stocks in the fund as of the end of the most recent quarter, see the fund's portfolio here. 
Feb 14, 2013 8:50PM
whey is there a picture of Case machines on this??
Feb 14, 2013 7:41PM
i worked at a company where we supplied parts to Deere.  they are an exceptional company!  very strong on ethics, not just what is "legal". 
Feb 15, 2013 12:49AM
John Deere combines are GREEN, not RED.
Feb 27, 2013 5:52PM
Dont know that I have ever seen a RED Deere
Feb 20, 2013 4:17PM
what about kubota? Does it make sense with the japanese yen in decline?
Feb 14, 2013 10:18AM
Well according to most reports,,,setting up for a Down day....Who knows, can't be too bad.??
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