Want peace of mind in a currency war?
Credit Suisse has identified companies that should benefit from shifts in the foreign exchange markets.
Global currency wars causing seismic shifts in exports? Central banks printing money until their eyes bleed? A global race to devalue? No problem! Just go long these stocks, say analysts at Credit Suisse (CS).
The bank issued a note Thursday highlighting several stocks that it sees gaining from action in the foreign exchange markets, specifically from a stronger euro and a weaker yen. These two currencies have seen some of the largest moves since mid-December when the currency wars truly broke out and thus the analysts focused on them.
As the chart below shows, Credit Suisse highlighted 15 stocks currently rated "outperform." The bank highlighted three stocks that look undervalued on its proprietary quantitative screen: Priceline.com (PCLN), Lear Corporation (LEA), and Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO).
Also, the bank noted seven stocks that could benefit from stronger emerging markets currencies. When other countries' currencies appreciate relative to the dollar, it boosts sales in those countries, all else being equal.
- Mead Johnson Nutritional (MJN)
- Phillip Morris (PM)
- Colgate-Palmolive (CL)
- Yum Brands (YUM)
- Proctor & Gamble (PG)
- Kraft Foods (KRFT)
- Nike (NKE)
Lastly, the bank noted six stocks rated "underperform" that have significant exposure to Japan. Having large Japanese exposure with a declining yen relative to the dollar means that for every yen of sales, the company gets fewer and fewer dollars. The bank highlighted Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) and Ford (F) as potential big losers if the yen continues to weaken over the next few months.
The bank noted that "each 10% on the euro takes 4% off Euro-area EPS growth (by itself) but other factors lead us only to downgrade EPS growth to 0.6% in 2013 (from 2%). Japanese consensus EPS forecasts are up only 1% in yen terms since the most recent peak in the yen and their historical correlation with the dollar/yen suggests another circa 5% upgrade."
The bank sees the euro weakening to 1.40 against the dollar and the yen declining to 100 against the dollar. Currently, they trade at 1.3622 and 91.90, respectively.
For a larger view of the chart, click here.
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