China tightens the screws

Banking regulators send a message, spurring a correction in bank and real estate stocks.

By Jim J. Jubak Dec 22, 2009 3:11PM

Jim JubakChina's stock market correction has spread from financials and real estate to the rest of the market.


For almost two months now, China's banking regulators have stuck to their message: China's big banks may need to raise more capital and put aside more money for reserves. (See my post from Nov. 24.)


In response, China's banks have throttled back a bit on lending -- which has hurt real estate developers and speculators -- and moved more loans off balance sheet by packaging them and selling them to trust companies. (See my post from Dec. 18.)

The regulatory campaign has created a correction in bank and real estate stocks.The iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI), which has a heavy exposure to China's banking and real estate big boys, peaked at $46.35 on Nov. 16 and then fell to $43.11 by Nov. 27. That's a 7% decline.


During that time, though, the rest of the Chinese market moved along just fine. CTRIP.com International (CTRP), an Internet travel company that I use as an indicator for the direction of China's nonfinancial, non-real estate stocks, saw its shares move up from $72.19 on Nov. 13 to $77.21 on Dec. 2.


In December, though, bank and real estate stocks have kept falling -- FXI fell another 4% from Nov. 27 to Tuesday for a total drop of 11% since Nov. 16. But CTRP has now joined in the rout: Shares have fallen 9% from Dec. 2 to this morning.


CTRP is a stock that I've suggested readers watch for as a possible buy on any dip. (For my logic on CTRP and some other China stocks to watch, see this post from Nov. 17.)


It's hard to tell how low this dip will go, but on recent history, the stock has been a buy when it drops to its 50-day moving average. That suggests that $65 or so would be a good entry. The stock is at $68.57 as I write this.


At the time of this writing, Jim Jubak owned shares of CTRP in his personal portfolio, and was looking to add to that position.

 

1Comment
Report
Please help us to maintain a healthy and vibrant community by reporting any illegal or inappropriate behavior. If you believe a message violates theCode of Conductplease use this form to notify the moderators. They will investigate your report and take appropriate action. If necessary, they report all illegal activity to the proper authorities.
Categories
100 character limit
Are you sure you want to delete this comment?

DATA PROVIDERS

Copyright © 2013 Microsoft. All rights reserved.

Quotes are real-time for NASDAQ, NYSE and AMEX. See delay times for other exchanges.

Fundamental company data and historical chart data provided by Thomson Reuters (click for restrictions). Real-time quotes provided by BATS Exchange. Real-time index quotes and delayed quotes supplied by Interactive Data Real-Time Services. Fund summary, fund performance and dividend data provided by Morningstar Inc. Analyst recommendations provided by Zacks Investment Research. StockScouter data provided by Verus Analytics. IPO data provided by Hoover's Inc. Index membership data provided by SIX Financial Information.

Japanese stock price data provided by Nomura Research Institute Ltd.; quotes delayed 20 minutes. Canadian fund data provided by CANNEX Financial Exchanges Ltd.

STOCK SCOUTER

StockScouter rates stocks from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best, using a system of advanced mathematics to determine a stock's expected risk and return. Ratings are displayed on a bell curve, meaning there will be fewer ratings of 1 and 10 and far more of 4 through 7.

127
127 rated 1
269
269 rated 2
463
463 rated 3
588
588 rated 4
657
657 rated 5
616
616 rated 6
645
645 rated 7
430
430 rated 8
261
261 rated 9
138
138 rated 10
12345678910

Top Picks

SYMBOLNAMERATING
COPConocoPhillips10
NWSNews Ord Shs Class B10
YHOOYahoo! Inc10
TJXTJX Companies Inc9
AMXAmerica Movil ADR Rep 20 Ord Shs Series L9
More

LATEST POSTS

Scary story: the 2013 market looks like 1987

All hail the bull market, which ended the week with a big rally. But it also is starting to look a little like 1987, which suffered an epic blow-out.

Fidelity Brokerage Services, Member NYSE, SIPC. (c) 2011 FMR LLC. All rights reserved

VIDEO ON MSN MONEY

ABOUT

Top Stocks provides analysis about the most noteworthy stocks in the market each day, combining some of the best content from around the MSN Money site and the rest of the Web.

Contributors include professional investors and journalists affiliated with MSN Money.

Follow us on Twitter @topstocksmsn.