Will stocks end the year strong?
Despite worries from overseas, history points to a solid finish to 2010. We might even discover that the US economy is in the midst of a robust rebound.
What happens if this is the week when we start thinking about the U.S. as a comeback country? What happens if the economic data this week -- the employment and supply-chain management reports -- kick into higher gear?
What happens if we are about to see an extension of the unemployment benefits that are about to expire, an extension that is incredibly important to the lower-end retailers that keep powering higher?
All of these possibilities are playing in my head and should be playing in yours. As Barclays put it so eloquently in a recent note, since 1961 there have been 28 times when the market was up 5% or more between Jan. 1 and October, and of those years the market has been down only twice in November and December. That statistic alone should buoy you even as it antagonizes the morbidly negative.
But now can you imagine what it would mean if we worried less about Ireland or China or South Korea and thought more about what's happening here? Can you imagine the debate centering on whether the U.S. economy is too strong and whether the existing housing stock is enough for a stronger economy now that so many houses can't be sold out of foreclosure and so few houses are being built?
What would it mean for the Retail HOLDRs (RTH) going into Christmas? What would it mean for the already supercharged tech stocks, which are so handily outperforming and did not fail despite a lot of soggy action last week?
And is this move what the utilities have been anticipating in their falloff, one that was so stark that it had to make you think it could be caused only by a stronger economy?
Now, all of this is arrayed against a strong dollar, which might be muted by the interregnum between Ireland and Portugal/Spain. That's a positive, as the markets tend to move up between these crises and then get hit from a higher level. It is also being arrayed against a Chinese call for high-level talks in the North-South Korea conflict, something that could basically end the tension immediately.
If all of these events go according to a bullish plan, and the only thing left out there to hurt us is rampant Chinese inflation, then I think this year will be yet another one in which the market was up 5% or more between January and October and failed to sell off in November and December.
Pretty powerful arguments despite all the chaos and dysfunction in Washington and the worries from overseas.
At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in securities mentioned.
Follow Cramer's trades for his Charitable Trust.
why does this clown still have a forum outside the circus? An insider schlepp to the wealthy doing their bidding in a feeble attempt to steer market reactions ... I know one thing; if KKKramer says one thing, expect the other to happen. Fox has their becks, hannitys, o'reillys and nbc has their crammer-scammer. American media is a wasteland - the watchdog against corruption for democracy has become a lapdog for corrupt forces and plutocracy. Ignore them all!
"...since 1961 there have been 28 times when the market was up 5% or more between Jan. 1 and October, and of those years the market has been down only twice in November and December. That statistic alone should buoy you even as it antagonizes the morbidly negative."
Of course, this could be the third time down out of 29. Jim Cramer's forecasts change on a dime.
this site is like kenya west and calling bush a racist; i'm not a 'F'ing spammer!!
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