Tonight's speech: A minefield for bulls
Obama's anti-business agenda will be clear after the State of the Union address.
Everyone's trying to game the president's speech, trying to figure out what he will tell the nation tonight. Some people think he will tack centric and talk about the need for compromise. Others think he will talk, at last, about how he should focus on job growth, put that before other issues.
I think these people are out of their minds. I expect the all-out war against Goldman Sachs (GS) will be taken from daytime to prime time. I just want to know if he will mention any bankers by name or have effigies burning behind him. I am sure he has polling data saying this stuff is working, so why in the world should he say something else? You go with a winner. You press your bet.
I think he believes that tapping into that anger is the best thing he can do, and it makes him even more wildly popular than he thinks he is. He'll poke a little fun, make some grins and then launch a broadside right into the heart of Wall Street. Higher taxes on this industry. Every penny must be paid back. And more. New rules that make them all community banks in the end. No more concentration of power in a few banks. He's not going to let mankind be crucified on a cross of Goldman Sachs.
It will play well.
I expect the health care issue to be uncompromising. I think
he will not admit there are problems here, and he'll say that he's continuing
to press for the unattainable. People think he will hit the reset
button on the issue. Is there anything you have seen yet from the president
that indicates he ever admits defeat? He's terrific like this. It is an
admirable quality. It just doesn't work as president with a Congress without a
supermajority. Again, though, I don't think that matters.
This market has known since September -- when the health care stocks started rallying -- that this legislation wasn't happening, and it never meant a thing to him. The Health-Care-President-in-Chief is right back at 'em tonight. Another shot at all health care stocks.
I am anticipating an all-out war against carbon fuels of all kinds tonight, with an emphasis on wind, solar and caulking. Bold caulking, even! I expect to hear of high windfall-like taxes from the man who is channeling Jimmy Carter, and I expect to hear that the money will go to making coal clean, not toward infrastructure, in part because Obama seems to have a real aversion to infrastructure or he would have pushed that highway bill that's been stalled for ages through Congress already. Puts on Exxon (XOM), please! Puts on the Oil Services HOLDRS (OIH) for the drilling tax and the need to halt hydraulic fracking until the poisoned drinking water is found somewhere in the Marcellus and it can be stopped altogether.
And then judging by the horrid action in the bank stocks, well above the current new tax schemes and Volcker rule I think Obama will unleash his union agenda, Card Check, to make it easy to unionize the banks. The tellers have always been without union protection while the corner offices rake in billions, even TARP billions. The way to settle the score is to make it easier to unionize, and the Shop-Steward-in-Chief can make that happen.
There. Now you know all of the things he can do. Now you have a realistic checklist. Let's put it this way: If he only does half of this, maybe the bulls get out of here alive.
But once again, there is nothing to indicate that he either wants that to happen or that he thinks it is good for America.
Anything less and he might think he is letting down the American public. He's a true believer, not a compromiser. To those who favor higher stock prices along with me, it is hard to get 'em when Robin-Hood-in-Chief lives in the White House.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long Goldman Sachs.
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