Five triggers for today's stock sell-off

Insight from the murky world of global hedge funds.

By Anthony Mirhaydari Feb 25, 2010 11:42AM

MirhaydariThanks to a number of relationships with professional market watchers, I'm able get what traders call "color" on the day's activity. Last night, I received an interesting e-mail from a hedge fund manager who specializes in trading based global economic trends -- or "global macro" in the native lingo.

 

He is well connected but prefers anonymity. He attends exclusive strategy sessions with the big boys at Goldman Sachs (GS).  He consults with Asian sovereign wealth funds.

 

Below is a reproduction of the e-mail, which carried the subject line "Risk-off move overnight -- 5 key triggers." There is a certain beauty to its roughshod style. It's heavy on jargon, with a mix of technical analysis and news summaries, but offers a rare look inside the minds of Wall Street's movers and shakers.

 

1) Moody’s on Greece
*4.40 am London: *MOODY'S SAYS GREECE RISKS DOWNGRADE IF FISCAL PLAN MISSED

 

2) Rumoured accounting scandal in Korea
*From Bloomberg: KB Financial Group Inc. fell the most in a week in Seoul trading after a MoneyToday reported that the financial regulator found accounting irregularities of as much as 100 trillion won ($86.7 billion) in the past few years at its Kookmin Bank unit. Kookmin denied the report in an e-mailed statement today. Kim Soo Mi, a pokeswoman at the regulator, declined to comment.

 

3) Japanese yen buying
*Japanese exporter big sellers of EURJPY and USDJPY
*89.30 is base of daily Ichimoku Cloud – It’s a thick-cloud at the moment so a break below would be technically significant. This signal closely followed by Japanese Retail (supposedly long 20-25 yards of AUDJPY) so a move below here could trigger a sharp unwind.
*AUDJPY trading below 200dma – again technically significant for Japanese Retail – heightens risk of broader unwind.

 

4) More headlines on Greece/Southern Europe
* UK Telegraph: Greek rescue in danger as deputy prime minister attacks ‘Nazi’ Germany (this was on wires yesterday, but doing the rounds more overnight):
{http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/7309861/Greek-rescue-in-danger-as-deputy-prime-minister-attacks-Nazi-Germany.html}
* WSJ: The euro’s next battleground: Spain:
{http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704454304575081481536661858.html}

 

5) RBS set to announce earnings this morning

*Newswire reports of £5bn in losses:
{http://news.stv.tv/scotland/159767-rbs-set-to-reveal-5billion-losses/}

 

You can watch me trade during the day at Wall Street Survivor.

 

Disclosure: The author does not own or control a position in any of the funds or companies mentioned.

 

Anthony Mirhaydari is a researcher for the Strategic Advantage investment newsletter. He can be contacted at anthony.mirhaydari@live.com. Feel free to comment below.

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