Looks like an upward trend
A objective analysis of last week's market action.
I use the Value Line Index because it contains 1,700 stocks, which makes it a much broader index than the Dow 30 or the S&P 500. The Index was up for the second week in a row by 1.65% and 5.06% for the month. That's only 4.26% off its previous high made on 10/18.
Each month I also include the Conference Board's Index of leading economic indicators, which will be published on Nov. 19.
Value Line Index -- contains 1,700 stocks -- Index up
- BarChart's technical analysis indicators rate the index a 32% buy with 7 buys, 3 holds and 3 sells -- not great but better than last week.
- The index is tracking above its 20-, 50- and 100-day moving averages -- a sign the market is trending upward.
BarChart's Market Momentum -- contains approximately 6,000 stocks -- percentage of stocks trading above or below their daily moving averages -- momentum up.
- 20DMA -- 53.79% trading above
- 50DMA -- 51.21% trading above
- 100DMA -- 71.44% trading above
Ratio of stocks making new highs to stocks making new lows for various periods -- above 1.01 bullish, 1.00 neutral, below .99 bearish. This week we have a long-term bull with two short-term bears.
- 20 day new high/new low ratio -- 422/611 = .69
- 65 day new high/new low ratio -- 225/302 = .84
- 100 day new high/new low ratio -- 230/199 = 1.20
Summary -- The market appears to be back into an upward trend, but the new high/new low ratios show we have a ways to go before we can give a full-blown bull signal. Don't be afraid to either stay invested or get back into the market.
Wall Street Survivor results -- On Top Stocks the contributors who mention stocks place those recommendations in a fantasy portfolio for a little friendly competition. For the week my portfolio was up 2.15% vs. the S&P gain of 0.57% and for the month I'm up 9.22% vs 5.33 for the S&P. I beat the market, but that wasn't good enough to beat our leader Anthony Mirhaydari for both the week and month to date. His return is a fantastic 11.61% for the week and 29.58% month to date.
Disclosure: I do not hold any positions in the stock of my Wall Street Survivor portfolio at the time of publication.
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