Greek rally fades on broader eurozone worries

Uncertainty reigns even after Greece's New Democracy Party promises a fresh start.

By Jim J. Jubak Jun 18, 2012 4:34PM
Image: Europe (© Corbis)That didn't last long. The relief rally after Sunday's election results showed that Greece isn't about to leave the euro had pretty much petered out by 11 a.m. ET. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX) climbed above Friday's close by 10:52 a.m., but returned those gains to move back under the Friday close by 11:04 a.m. The S&P 500 closed up less than two points.

Why was the optimism so short lived? Here are five reasons:

1. Because the reaction to the news that Greece won't be headed out of the euro immediately has been tempered by a realization that the election results don't do anything to reverse the slide in the Greek economy. The shrinking size of the Greek economy means less tax revenue collected by the government and more resentment at the pain of the bailout deal from Greeks who don't see any hope that the austerity strategy will clear the wreckage that is the Greek economy anytime soon. A shrinking Greek economy makes it extremely unlikely that Greece will be able to meet the deadlines in its bailout package.

2. Because German Chancellor Angela Merkel's reaction to the Greek election has been, at least as far as the headlines are concerned, that Greece should not get anything in the way of lower interest rates or a extended deadline for meeting its budget targets. In other words, just another German "no" and nothing in the way of actual proposals that might create bit more growth in Greece and the rest of the eurozone.

3. Yield has increased on Spanish 10-year government bonds to 7.2% -- way, way into the danger zone and a record high for the euro era. Spain faces two bond auctions this week for short-term debt on Tuesday and for five-year debt on Thursday. There’s a legitimate fear that the auctions will see yields spike even higher after these auctions -- and even a worry that the auctions might fail to sell the targeted amount of bonds.

4. News that for yet another week, the European Central Bank did not buy any Spanish or Italian debt in the financial markets last week. With Spanish yields above 7% and Italian yields above 6% the European Central Bank remains on the sidelines. The fear here is that this isn’t an attempt to put pressure on EuroZone political leaders to act, but a reflection of policy paralysis at the bank.

5. A realization that Monday's meeting of the leaders of the world's 20 biggest economies -- the G20 -- in Mexico is not intended to produce any concrete proposals to address the euro crisis. That will have to wait for the European summit on June 28 and 29. (That summit will be preceded on June 22 by a meeting of the leaders of Germany, France, Spain, and Italy.) June 28 seems very far away.

At the time of this writing, Jim Jubak didn't own shares of any companies mentioned in this post in personal portfolios. The mutual fund he manages, Jubak Global Equity Fund (JUBAX), may or may not own positions in any stock mentioned. For a full list of the stocks in the fund as of the end of the most recent quarter, see the fund's portfolio here. 
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3Comments
Corn on the cob
Jun 19, 2012 1:34AM
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A fresh start? Go away euro, here I come dollar. Could Greece be the next China? The Global Manufacturing Infrastructure has a New start, possibly in the form of new govt, and new way of thinking. The price of real estate will continue to drop substantially, hopefully? To create the bargaining power of a new revolution and grid of cheap labor brought on by the sub-concious influence of regurgitated ignorance of euro stagnation. A bright future awaits. Plastic, and aluminum commoditiy product assembly and construction, should and will be propelled by this nation eager and willing for a guaranteed tomorrow. Open your checkbooks wisely, and don't hesitate.
mrmgp
Jun 19, 2012 12:11AM
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Ever notice how short lived these Greek rallies tend to be? It's like cheering aboard the Titanic that the stricken ship isn't taking on quite as much water as it was, and forgetting overall that the ship is still sinking.
Active RIA
Jun 18, 2012 5:17PM
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"June 28 seems very far away"   ....  and miles to go before i sleep .....

 

or (more likely)    ........  and just a few more PIIGS to fail before i weep

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