Running out of gas

ONEOK Partners still attractive, but near-term concerns weigh it down

By Jim J. Jubak Nov 10, 2009 4:27PM

Jim JubakMaster limited partnership units of ONEOK Partners (OKS) have run through my target price of $54 a share by March 2010 and just kept on going.


I still like this natural gas pipeline play for its yield of 7.5% (as of Monday), so I'm keeping it in my Dividend Income Portfolio. 


But I just can't see more than a couple of bucks more in price appreciation in the next year, and that would limit the total return on these units. So, I'm selling them out of my 12- to 18-month Jubak's Picks portfolio with this post.


On November 3rd, the master limited partnership reported third-quarter earnings of $1 a unit, beating Wall Street estimates by 13 cents. Revenues, however, fell 30% from the third quarter of 2008 to $1.56 billion. That was significantly short of the $1.86 billion expected by Wall Street. 


ONEOK Partners did raise guidance earnings for all of 2009 to a range of $3.40 to $3.60 per unit, above the analyst consensus. The previous guidance from the company was for $3.25 to $3.65 per unit. 


The near-term worry is that depressed natural gas demand as the U.S. only slowly comes out of recession will leave some of the company's pipelines operating at less than full capacity.


OKS has added significant new capacity out of the Barnett shale region of Texas, for example, but reduced drilling and production in that field could mean that it will take a year or more before the new pipelines are running at full load. 


The Arbuckle pipeline, which went into service in July, operated at about half-capacity in the third quarter, for instance. (For more on the US natural gas glut, see my November 3rd post).


With interest rates low, the partnership should, however, have no problem funding its plans to invest $300 million to $500 million annually in new capital projects through 2015.


I'm selling these units with a 40% capital gain and interest income of about 8% since I added them to the portfolio on October 7, 2008.


Jim Jubak plans to sell his personal position in ONEOK Partners three days after this is posted. 

Tags: Jim Jubak
3Comments
Report
Please help us to maintain a healthy and vibrant community by reporting any illegal or inappropriate behavior. If you believe a message violates theCode of Conductplease use this form to notify the moderators. They will investigate your report and take appropriate action. If necessary, they report all illegal activity to the proper authorities.
Categories
100 character limit
Are you sure you want to delete this comment?

DATA PROVIDERS

Copyright © 2013 Microsoft. All rights reserved.

Quotes are real-time for NASDAQ, NYSE and AMEX. See delay times for other exchanges.

Fundamental company data and historical chart data provided by Thomson Reuters (click for restrictions). Real-time quotes provided by BATS Exchange. Real-time index quotes and delayed quotes supplied by Interactive Data Real-Time Services. Fund summary, fund performance and dividend data provided by Morningstar Inc. Analyst recommendations provided by Zacks Investment Research. StockScouter data provided by Verus Analytics. IPO data provided by Hoover's Inc. Index membership data provided by SIX Financial Information.

Japanese stock price data provided by Nomura Research Institute Ltd.; quotes delayed 20 minutes. Canadian fund data provided by CANNEX Financial Exchanges Ltd.

STOCK SCOUTER

StockScouter rates stocks from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best, using a system of advanced mathematics to determine a stock's expected risk and return. Ratings are displayed on a bell curve, meaning there will be fewer ratings of 1 and 10 and far more of 4 through 7.

133
133 rated 1
268
268 rated 2
459
459 rated 3
583
583 rated 4
668
668 rated 5
590
590 rated 6
672
672 rated 7
429
429 rated 8
258
258 rated 9
140
140 rated 10
12345678910

Top Picks

SYMBOLNAMERATING
ABTAbbott Laboratories10
AIGAmerican International Group Inc10
AMTDTD Ameritrade Holding Corp10
ATVIActivision Blizzard Inc10
CACA Inc10
More
Fidelity Brokerage Services, Member NYSE, SIPC. (c) 2011 FMR LLC. All rights reserved

VIDEO ON MSN MONEY

ABOUT

Top Stocks provides analysis about the most noteworthy stocks in the market each day, combining some of the best content from around the MSN Money site and the rest of the Web.

Contributors include professional investors and journalists affiliated with MSN Money.

Follow us on Twitter @topstocksmsn.