This market requires a revised playbook

With no new-quarter bump, no hint of a summer rally and the Fed out of ammo, the rules of yore no longer apply.

By Jim Cramer Jul 2, 2010 8:26AM

jim cramerBy Jim Cramer, TheStreet

 

We've thrown an awful lot of conventions out the window these past few months. We no longer think, for example, that there will be any new money in the market at the first of a new quarter, even if it is the second half. That used to be a big bump. We no longer expect or even talk about a summer rally. Unlike at the end of last year, there was no markup whatsoever. Favored stocks meant nothing.

 

Also, we no longer expect buyers to be attracted by yield, even though I can tell you that won't last, given the price of the 10-year T-note and the competition from the likes of DuPont (DD), 3M (MMM) and General Mills (GIS).

 

We don't care that Ford (F) has more money than we thought, or sales either. Autos used to be big.

 

We have given up on the idea that anything from Congress could be good at all. We used to look for occasional good business news.

The Fed always had the potential to be a positive force. But the Fed just keeps firing the same gun.

 

Nothing from the president is any good at all. Nothing. Everything is bad. We used to joke that when Bush talked, the market went down.

 

Obama doesn't even need to talk.

 

Because of all these points, I again say that the estimates for everything should be lower. Economists should expect that nothing good will happen.

 

We will go lower, to where the estimates are a given. Or people will recognize that they just have to wait until the yields are obviously bountiful and safe and growth is solid for the CANDIES.

 

Because conventional wisdom has become completely worthless, and the high-frequency traders and ETFs exacerbate the losses if you try to follow the well-established patterns of yore.

 

At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.

 

Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO

 

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