Going for the gold miners
The climate could swing back to fear as new numbers come out on several fronts.
I'm adding more gold to the Jubak's Picks portfolio Thursday.
After a rally off the Feb. 8 low on hopes that the global economic recovery was gaining steam, I think we're due for a swing back to fear on disappointing growth numbers from the European Union, on stubbornly high (and perhaps rising) unemployment figures from the U.S., as more discouraged workers rejoin the ranks of those actively looking for work, and on worrying growth and inflation data from China. (For more on these macro trends, see this post and this one).
The technical charts of many individual gold stocks and the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) now show that gold mining shares have cleared recent resistance and look like they're headed higher -- for a while, anyway.
I've noted a number of times recently that in a market where trends don't last all that long, investors don't want to fall in love with any stock. An ETF, since it's just a vehicle that tracks an index, is somehow less lovable. Which is why I'm picking it here over any individual gold stock.
This ETF also holds shares of some silver miners, and silver (as well as platinum) right now is outpacing gold, so this pick gives me a way to gain a little extra lift.
I'm setting a very tight target price of $52 and a very short time horizon of August for this pick. (It traded above $48 early Thursday afternoon.) If and when the ETF hits that target, I'll re-evaluate.
At the time of this writing, Jim Jubak didn't own shares of any company or ETF mentioned in this post.
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Serious issues like drought and the deterioration of the developed world spell opportunity for this industry leader.
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