Caught in a momentum squeeze

Maxwell Technologies shares drop on disappointing quarterly earnings, but the numbers are encouraging long-term.

By Jim J. Jubak Dec 2, 2009 5:35PM

Jim JubakI hate it when this happens: A perfectly good growth stock gets adopted by momentum investors. 


It soars in the days before the company issues earnings on the hope that the good news already in the stock price will turn into great news in the quarterly report. When it doesn't, the stock crashes as momentum investors move on.


Unfortunately, this could also scare growth investors into selling when they should be hanging on or even buying more. (For coping with this twitch-inducing market, see my Nov. 20 post).


That's exactly the story of Maxwell Technologies (MXWL) in the last month or so. The stock rocketed from $15.85 on Sep. 21 to $21.53 on Oct. 19 and then, after disappointing quarterly earnings, sank back toward those September numbers. On Wednesday, the stock traded at $16.81.


Were the third-quarter numbers so bad that they damaged the long-term growth story? They were disappointing in the short term, sure, but from a long-term perspective I'd actually call them encouraging.


For the third quarter, the company showed a loss of 18 cents a share. But 11 cents of that resulted from the company marking to market warrants associated with its 2005 convertible debt offering. Excluding those, the loss at seven cents a share was three cents a share worse than the consensus Wall Street forecast.


Disappointing, definitely, but if you own this stock for more than quarter-to-quarter results -- which I recommend for small-company growth stocks -- you should be encouraged by the company's progress.


For example, Maxwell continued to penetrate new markets. The company is near completion for its first $13.5-million order of ultracapacitors for China's diesel-hybrid bus market. Maxwell expects follow-on orders in 2011.


And in the critical auto market, Maxwell announced another win, with Continental AG picking the company's ultracapacitors for use in automobile electrical systems starting in 2010. The company expects deliveries to begin in the fourth quarter of 2009 and to reach 10,000 to 20,000 units in 2010. The ultracapacitor content in Continental's system will range from $50 to $200 a car; the company estimates the average content will be near $100.


Like most young growth companies with products that are still ramping up their volumes, Maxwell's problem has been that it is still losing money on its ultracapacitor business. 


Here, too, Maxwell showed progress this quarter, as gross margins climbed to 38% from 36% in the second quarter as a result of the company's moving some production capacity to China.


As of December 2, 2009, I'm keeping my target price at $25 a share by July 2010.


At the time of this writing, Jim Jubak owned shares of Maxwell Technologies in his personal portfolio. 

 

Tags: Jim Jubak
0Comments

DATA PROVIDERS

Copyright © 2013 Microsoft. All rights reserved.

Quotes are real-time for NASDAQ, NYSE and AMEX. See delay times for other exchanges.

Fundamental company data and historical chart data provided by Thomson Reuters (click for restrictions). Real-time quotes provided by BATS Exchange. Real-time index quotes and delayed quotes supplied by Interactive Data Real-Time Services. Fund summary, fund performance and dividend data provided by Morningstar Inc. Analyst recommendations provided by Zacks Investment Research. StockScouter data provided by Verus Analytics. IPO data provided by Hoover's Inc. Index membership data provided by SIX Financial Information.

Japanese stock price data provided by Nomura Research Institute Ltd.; quotes delayed 20 minutes. Canadian fund data provided by CANNEX Financial Exchanges Ltd.

STOCK SCOUTER

StockScouter rates stocks from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best, using a system of advanced mathematics to determine a stock's expected risk and return. Ratings are displayed on a bell curve, meaning there will be fewer ratings of 1 and 10 and far more of 4 through 7.

126
126 rated 1
257
257 rated 2
459
459 rated 3
599
599 rated 4
671
671 rated 5
682
682 rated 6
603
603 rated 7
455
455 rated 8
269
269 rated 9
113
113 rated 10
12345678910

Top Picks

SYMBOLNAMERATING
ABTAbbott Laboratories10
AIGAmerican International Group Inc10
ATVIActivision Blizzard Inc10
CACA Inc10
CSCOCisco Systems Inc10
More
Fidelity Brokerage Services, Member NYSE, SIPC. (c) 2011 FMR LLC. All rights reserved

VIDEO ON MSN MONEY

ABOUT

Top Stocks provides analysis about the most noteworthy stocks in the market each day, combining some of the best content from around the MSN Money site and the rest of the Web.

Contributors include professional investors and journalists affiliated with MSN Money.

Follow us on Twitter @topstocksmsn.