Market internals weaken

Various technical measures suggest trouble for equity markets

By Anthony Mirhaydari Oct 21, 2009 3:40PM

Anthony MirhaydariWhile stocks continue to flirt with new rally highs, trouble brews beneath the surface.

 

A slew of short-term technical indicators are falling out of overbought territory including various stochastic and momentum measures. Breadth continues to narrow, with the percentage of NYSE stocks over their 10-day moving average dropping from 81% to 64% on Tuesday even as the NYSE Composite Index (NYA.X) closed just 1.1% away from the rally price high set on Monday.

 

Translation: Fewer and fewer stocks are holding up the major indices like a foundation made of sand that is slowing melting away. In fact, the situation looks somewhat similar to what happened between May and June before equities slumped into the July low.

 

Chart of divergences

 

We're also seeing a number of divergences as it becomes apparent the market's rising tide is no longer lifting all boats. This is mostly being driven by rising risk aversion: Just look at the Consumer Discretionary SPDR (XLY) is losing strength relative to the Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP). Investors are taking a more pessimistic view of the consumer as they ditch luxury brands like Coach (COH), restaurants like Darden (DRI), and homebuilders like DR Horton (DHI) from their portfolios while adding defensive names like Procter & Gamble (PG) and Wal-Mart (WMT).

 

Other examples include the way small cap stocks in the Russell 2000 failed to push to new highs as the Dow Industrials punched through the 10,000 level last week. The Dow Transports (TRAN), which includes the railroads and trucking companies on the front lines of the economy, has also lagged.

 

Margin Debt

 

Over the long haul, however, things still look good. One interesting observation along these lines is the amount of margin debt outstanding. As you can see in the chart above, which plots NYSE margin debt from 1943 through August, investors have plenty of purchasing firepower left in their armories.

 

These unspent dollars will serve as a reservoir of capital with which future stock price appreciation will depend. Until equities become overbought on more long-term technical measures, and until we see an exhaustion of buying resources, the bull market will live on -- even if plagued by occasional weakness.

 

Disclosure: The author does not own or control a position in any of the funds or companies mentioned.

 

Anthony Mirhaydari is a researcher for the Strategic Advantage investment newsletter. He can be contacted at anthony.mirhaydari@live.com. Feel free to comment below.

0Comments

DATA PROVIDERS

Copyright © 2013 Microsoft. All rights reserved.

Quotes are real-time for NASDAQ, NYSE and AMEX. See delay times for other exchanges.

Fundamental company data and historical chart data provided by Thomson Reuters (click for restrictions). Real-time quotes provided by BATS Exchange. Real-time index quotes and delayed quotes supplied by Interactive Data Real-Time Services. Fund summary, fund performance and dividend data provided by Morningstar Inc. Analyst recommendations provided by Zacks Investment Research. StockScouter data provided by Verus Analytics. IPO data provided by Hoover's Inc. Index membership data provided by SIX Financial Information.

Japanese stock price data provided by Nomura Research Institute Ltd.; quotes delayed 20 minutes. Canadian fund data provided by CANNEX Financial Exchanges Ltd.

STOCK SCOUTER

StockScouter rates stocks from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best, using a system of advanced mathematics to determine a stock's expected risk and return. Ratings are displayed on a bell curve, meaning there will be fewer ratings of 1 and 10 and far more of 4 through 7.

127
127 rated 1
269
269 rated 2
463
463 rated 3
587
587 rated 4
658
658 rated 5
615
615 rated 6
645
645 rated 7
430
430 rated 8
263
263 rated 9
137
137 rated 10
12345678910

Top Picks

SYMBOLNAMERATING
COPConocoPhillips10
NWSNews Ord Shs Class B10
YHOOYahoo! Inc10
TJXTJX Companies Inc9
AMXAmerica Movil ADR Rep 20 Ord Shs Series L9
More

LATEST POSTS

Scary story: the 2013 market looks like 1987

All hail the bull market, which ended the week with a big rally. But it also is starting to look a little like 1987, which suffered an epic blow-out.

Fidelity Brokerage Services, Member NYSE, SIPC. (c) 2011 FMR LLC. All rights reserved

VIDEO ON MSN MONEY

ABOUT

Top Stocks provides analysis about the most noteworthy stocks in the market each day, combining some of the best content from around the MSN Money site and the rest of the Web.

Contributors include professional investors and journalists affiliated with MSN Money.

Follow us on Twitter @topstocksmsn.