Economy too bad to get any worse?
Some observers say we'll avoid a double dip because things are already so miserable.
The key sectors of the economy that normally are recession indicators are extremely depressed. Car sales are pathetic. Housing construction is miserable. Things are so bad, in fact, there's nowhere to go but up.
So, uh, that's good news? "It doesn't rule out a recession," one economic researcher told Bloomberg. "It just makes it less likely than otherwise."He puts the chance of a double dip at 1 in 4.
The news service interviewed a former Fed governor who put the chance of a double-dip at 35%. That's up from the 10% to 20% range a month ago. Even if we avoid sliding back into recession, he said, we'll probably see the economy grow by less than 2% for some time.
In the end, does it really matter? Double dip or slow, disappointing recovery -- either way, we're in for a prolonged period of pain.
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Fed keeps important 'considerable time' language in reference to short-term interest rates, but dissents and dots leave doubts.
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