What's the worst-case scenario for stocks?
Economist Nouriel Roubini thinks 2013 will be a lousy year, even if the fiscal cliff gets taken care of. But things could actually get worse. Here's how.
New York University economist Nouriel Roubini earned the nickname "Dr. Doom" after he predicted much of the 2008 financial collapse. He's hardly been optimistic since the financial crisis. He thinks 2013 will be trying for the global economy. Europe will be struggling with recession. China's economy is still soft, and he thinks U.S. economic growth will be modest at best.
But a perfect storm of four issues could make 2013 truly awful, Roubini said on an interview on Turkish television. Here they are:
The U.S. fiscal cliff issue doesn't get resolved. That means tax rates go up and government spending gets cut. The result, many economists believe, Roubini among them, will be another recession. We should note that President Obama and House and Senate leaders met Friday and swore they'd get the problem fixed. That was enough to turn a bad day for stocks into a winner.
The European recession gets nasty. This would occur if Greece runs out of cash (a real possibility) and leaves the euro currency in a messy way. Read that as this: Greece basically defaults on its debt and plunges global credit markets into chaos.
China's economy tanks. It's possible. Real estate in many Chinese markets has been overbuilt, and construction spending has slowed. The Shanghai Composite Index, the benchmark Chinese stock index, is down 34% since April 2011 and 67% since peaking in November 2007. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index, however, suggests things aren't that bad. The index is up 15% this year.
War erupts in the Middle East. This assumes Israel and Iran somehow go to war, not a huge possibility by itself. But the rising tensions between Israel and Syria and Israel and Egypt over what Israeli forces might do in the Gaza Strip could cause major disruptions in crude oil markets, with crude oil pushing toward $200 a barrel with serious effects on the global economy.
So far, however, oil markets aren't in a panic mode.
Crude oil (-CL) for January delivery in New York settled up $1.05 to $86.92 a barrel Friday and was up 1% on the week. Brent crude, the better indicator to watch in this case, was up 97 cents to $108.98 a barrel and is down slightly for the week.
Wholesale gasoline futures for December delivery ended the day up 1.39 cents to $2.7101 a gallon.
AAA's national average retail price of gasoline was $3.43 a gallon Friday, down slightly from Thursday and down 9.4% this quarter.
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We talk about Roubini on other blogs. The ones that don't have mindless Southerners clogging the top positions with foolishness and dribble. Anyone get the feeling that Mylanta is a big seller in the South because it also looks like it says: Atlanta, on the label? Kids... if you want to feel better about things... turn Limbaugh off and get a life.
His bolded points are spot-on. No one believes a fiscal resolution will occur without force. Europe is toast. It hasn't had economy in years. Greece would do better if it walked away. Didn't China take on GOP characteristics? How on Earth can it recover when a very small segment of the population got all the earnings and toys? IF we had Romney, we would be neck and neck toward that Train Wreck! War in the Middle East is inevitable. Israel wants it. This time, let's send our older GOP in first and keep our kids back here to help restore what older GOP ruined.
So yeah...the worst thing would be Russia and China making a play in the Middle East...and us being incapable politically and militarily of doing anything about it...
When Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz...well, that's going to be an interesting day to be sure...
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK:
1. Senator John McCain loses his TEA PARTY mind screaming conspiracy in Benghazi then fails to show up for the Benghazi hearing. Instead, being a media whore, he decides to go on television bashing Obama. Shameful.
2. Bobby Jindal tells party Romney was wrong. Republicans lost because of Romney's 47% comments. Bobby Jindal is a hero because he tries to bring GOP back to the center away from the religious kooks.
3. Governor Rick Perry of Texas advocates overthrow of U.S. government and/or secession for his Tea Party buddies then quickly backs off when he realizes he can be impeached or imprisoned.
4. Republicans shamed Israel into land-for-peace deal which Palestinians deliberately scrub by allowing armed gangs, thugs and terrorists to occupy their new land in Gaza strip. They attack Israel.
John McCain needs to stay off television and do his damned job and get this budget done. Then he can retire to crazyland. Rick Perry's interpretation of the bible is him sitting on a porch in a rocking chair watching all his plantation niggas (all of you regardless of race) slaving away while he gets richer and closer to heaven with Romney and Lyin' Ryan. Enough is enough. We won. Tea Party (sore losers) you lost. When the civil war ended, all of the racists who couldn't bear to live here left and went down to Bolivia and Argentina. Tear ****, Rick Perry!!
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