First Solar's new price estimate: $51
The cost advantage of the solar panel maker has eroded because of lower prices across the polysilicon-based PV module supply chain.
First Solar's thin cell Cd-Te technology gave the company a cost advantage over its competition, but that has eroded considerably of late mainly because of lower prices across the polysilicon-based PV module supply chain.
First Solar's competitors, such as Trina Solar (TSL) and Yingli Green Energy (YGE), use polysilicon to manufacture modules, which makes modules costlier but more efficient than thin cell technology-based products.
A global polysilicon glut has resulted in lower raw material costs and Chinese players, with considerable government backing, have slashed prices. We have revised our forecasts for First Solar in light of these changes and our price estimate for the stock now stands at $51 which is about 20% ahead of its current market price.
Below we highlight some of the factors that have contributed to our revised outlook:
Loaded with debt and inventory, Chinese players have aggressively cut prices since the second quarter of 2011 in a bid to sell their products despite falling demand from European markets. The solar market shake-up also impacted the polysilicon production industry, which derives 90% of its demand from PV module manufacturing. Spot prices for polysilicon fell from a record $475 per kilogram in 2008 to around $33 per kilogram in Q4 2011.
The raw materials account for 25% of the cost of manufacturing solar modules and analysts see prices falling even further if the downturn continues as industry production is expected to outstrip demand by 28% in 2012. The situation may get worse in the medium term because total industry capacity is set to almost double from its 2011 levels in the next three years (see: LDK Solar Gets Caught in Polysilicon Glut).
First Solar uses thin cell Cd-Te technology that does not use polysilicon as a raw material. While this technology gives First Solar a cost advantage over its competitors, falling raw material prices mean that First Solar's cost structure will not come down in tandem with the industry. The company enjoyed gross margins around 50% in 2009 and 2010. Given the present dynamics, we expect margins to fall to around 20% by 2014.
In a bid to reduce costs, First Solar also wound up its development plans for the emerging low cost copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) PV cell technology. Analysts believe that the move was sparked by Japanese company Solar Frontier KK beating First Solar to develop a product using this technology. Shelving CIGS development will impact the long term cost advantage enjoyed by First Solar over its competitors (see: First Solar Loses Chief Technologist as Company Cuts Costs).
In another development, GT Advanced Technologies -- a manufacturer of furnaces to turn silicon into crystalline cubes -- announced two new technologies to significantly cut costs of manufacturing for polysilicon-based high efficiency module manufacturers. This could further reduce First Solar's cost advantage.
The demand outlook from Europe still remains uncertain because of a weak growth outlook and the continuing strain on government budgets. S&P recently downgraded the debt of eight European countries, leaving Germany with the only stable AAA rating in the region. Solar is still dependent on government subsidies from the angle of economic feasibility. Governments are being pressured to reduce deficits and solar subsidies could face further cuts in the future. German's economy minister Philipp Roesler indicated that the country may consider imposing a cap on solar installations (see: German December Solar Installations Surge in Race to Beat Subsidy Cuts). Demand from Europe constitutes a major portion of the revenues of PV manufacturers like First Solar.
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