Office Depot, OfficeMax rise while FedEx falters

The shipper will likely rebound later in the year if consumer confidence continues to rise.

By Jonathan Berr Sep 5, 2012 1:37PM
Arrow Up copyright Nicholas Monu, iStock Exclusive, Getty ImagesShares of Office Depot (ODP) and OfficeMax (OMX) are up Wednesday after the office supply retailers backed their 2012 earnings forecasts,  countering worries about an economic slowdown highlighted by FedEx's (FDX) earnings forecast reduction.

Office Depot, based in Boca Raton, Fla., expects earnings of $125 million to $135 million in 2012, excluding special items, interest and taxes, along with free cash flow of $80 million to $100  million.

OfficeMax, based in Naperville, Ill., is expecting third-quarter sales to be flat or slightly higher than a year earlier, with adjusted operating income of 2.3%, in-line with the year-ago period. Sales for the year will be little changed from 2011, while adjusted operating income margin will be 1.7%, around the level where it was last year.

Investors were bracing themselves for much worse news from the chains, which are sensitive to swings in economic confidence. Yesterday, Office Depot reported a worse-than-expected quarterly loss amid soft demand in both the U.S. and Europe. The picture seems better at OfficeMax, which last month reinstated its dividend after a three-year absence as its business stabilized. Shareholder Neuberger Berman's call to return more capital to investors certainly played a role in the decision as well.

Office Depot and OfficeMax sell mundane products like envelopes and toner cartridges, which companies need to buy in good times and bad. The fact that these chains don't see things getting worse is good news. As consumer confidence continues to rise, small businesses may be more willing to make investments in capital equipment, such as laptops. Wall Street sees better times ahead for these companies. The average 52-week price target for Office Depot is $2.89, an increase of more than 60% from where it currently trades. OfficeMax is expected to hit $7.86, up more than 32%.

The earnings miss at FedEx was not a surprise because rival UPS (UPS) posted similar results. Shippers are bypassing express delivery for cheaper, slower options. There are reasons, though, to think that the trend won't last. First, consumers are showing signs of resilience ahead of the release of the iPhone 5, perhaps the most eagerly anticipated device in years. If consumer confidence doesn't falter, the holiday season should be decent, which would be good for FedEx, which recently reported earnings that lagged Wall Street.

Jonathan Berr does not own shares of the listed stocks. Follow him on Twitter@jdberr.





0Comments

DATA PROVIDERS

Copyright © 2013 Microsoft. All rights reserved.

Quotes are real-time for NASDAQ, NYSE and AMEX. See delay times for other exchanges.

Fundamental company data and historical chart data provided by Thomson Reuters (click for restrictions). Real-time quotes provided by BATS Exchange. Real-time index quotes and delayed quotes supplied by Interactive Data Real-Time Services. Fund summary, fund performance and dividend data provided by Morningstar Inc. Analyst recommendations provided by Zacks Investment Research. StockScouter data provided by Verus Analytics. IPO data provided by Hoover's Inc. Index membership data provided by SIX Financial Information.

Japanese stock price data provided by Nomura Research Institute Ltd.; quotes delayed 20 minutes. Canadian fund data provided by CANNEX Financial Exchanges Ltd.

STOCK SCOUTER

StockScouter rates stocks from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best, using a system of advanced mathematics to determine a stock's expected risk and return. Ratings are displayed on a bell curve, meaning there will be fewer ratings of 1 and 10 and far more of 4 through 7.

133
133 rated 1
267
267 rated 2
458
458 rated 3
581
581 rated 4
667
667 rated 5
590
590 rated 6
672
672 rated 7
429
429 rated 8
258
258 rated 9
140
140 rated 10
12345678910

Top Picks

SYMBOLNAMERATING
ABTAbbott Laboratories10
AIGAmerican International Group Inc10
AMTDTD Ameritrade Holding Corp10
ATVIActivision Blizzard Inc10
CACA Inc10
More
Fidelity Brokerage Services, Member NYSE, SIPC. (c) 2011 FMR LLC. All rights reserved

VIDEO ON MSN MONEY

ABOUT

Top Stocks provides analysis about the most noteworthy stocks in the market each day, combining some of the best content from around the MSN Money site and the rest of the Web.

Contributors include professional investors and journalists affiliated with MSN Money.

Follow us on Twitter @topstocksmsn.