Stocks have momentum but remain risky
The market looks overvalued from a fundamental perspective, but it's hard to call a top when earnings and jobless claims reports look good.
While my theme for 2013 is that stocks are a risky asset class, I have not yet called a market top.
Stocks still have some technical momentum and the weekly charts for some of the major indexes are not yet overbought. Moreover, there have been better-than-expected earnings from the stocks I have profiled week to week in January and an improving trend in weekly jobless claims.
Nevertheless, stocks appear overvalued from a fundamental perspective, but it is difficult to call for a top when nearly 90% of the companies I have profiled pre-earnings beat their Q4 EPS estimates.
Next week I will profile another six Dow components, four home builders, Amazon (AMZN) and four other stocks that are important to track.
It's hard to be overly bearish with the four-week moving average for initial jobless claims poised to trend below the recessionary threshold of 350,000, as shown on the chart below (courtesy of dshort -- Advisor Perspectives). The four-week moving average is down to 351,750.
The weekly charts are positive or overbought for the equity averages I track. Tough to call a market top with Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU), S&P 500 ($INX) and Nasdaq ($COMPX) showing rising momentum. Dow Transports and Russell 2000 have overbought momentum on their weekly chart behind continued all-time highs almost daily.
What will it take to call a market top?
On Friday www.ValuEngine.com shows that 59.5% of all stocks are overvalued. When 65% or more are overvalued, I will look for a stock market top. All 16 sectors are overvalued, 8 by double-digit percentages. Typically at a market top all sectors are overvalued by double-digit percentages.
When all weekly charts become overbought for the major equity averages is will look for a market top. Daily charts are not as important as the weekly charts, but keep in mind the daily chart for Dow Transports could not be more overbought, as the 12x3x3 daily stochastic reading at 97.40 is nearly pinned at the 100.00 maximum.
If the major equity averages test their longer-term risky levels, I will begin to call for a major market top. I show quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 14,118 and 14,323 Dow Industrial Average, 1510.0 and 1566.9 S&P 500, 3274 and 3583 Nasdaq, and 913.92 and 965.51 Russell 2000. Annual and semiannual risky levels are 5925 and 5955 Dow Transports.
Tracking Dow Theory: We ended Thursday with another new all-time closing high at 5854.94 for the Dow Transportation Average. To confirm a "Dow Theory Buy Signal" the Dow Industrials need to have a daily close above its all-time closing high of 14,164.53 set on Oct. 9, 2007. It will be difficult to confirm or sustain such a signal with the Dow risky levels at 14,118 and 14,323,
The key levels to hold on an early pullback are: quarterly pivots at 13,668 Dow Industrials, 1431.1 S&P 500 and 3071 on the Nasdaq, and annual pivots at 5469 on Dow Transports and 860.25 Russell 2000.
My annual value levels are the initial downside targets at: 12,696 and 12,509 on Dow Industrials, 1348.3 SP 500, 2806 and 2790 Nasdaq, and 809.54 Russell 2000.
Checking levels for the other U.S. Capital Markets:
The yield on the 10-Year Treasury note (1.906%): The weekly chart favors higher yields on a close Friday above the five-week modified moving averages at 1.791%. My annual pivot is the nearest value level at 1.981%. My annual and semiannual value levels are 2.476% and 3.063% with semiannual risky level at 1.413%.
Comex Gold ($1,664.90): Needs to close above its five-week MMA at $1,678.60 Friday to have a positive weekly chart profile. My annual value level is $1,599.9 with a monthly pivot at $1,673.80 and semiannual, quarterly and annual risky levels at $1,719.20, $1,802.90 and $1852.10.
Nymex Crude Oil ($96.30): The weekly chart stays positive on a close Friday above the five-week MMA at $92.25. My quarterly pivot is $95.84 with annual risky levels at $115.23 and $115.42. The 200-week simple moving average is a major support at $85.41.
The Euro vs. the Dollar (1.3453): The weekly chart becomes positive but overbought with a close above the five-week MMA at 1.3187 with upside to the 200-week simple moving average at 1.3526. My semiannual value level is 1.2797 with annual and quarterly pivots at 1.3257 and 1.3346.
At the time of publication, the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.
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