Is Intel at a bottom?

The stock hit a 52-week low today as it fell for an 8th straight day. The stock is down 29% since May. It may be nearing a bottom -- if you believe Intel has a future in mobile technology. Right now, investors aren't so sure.

By Charley Blaine Nov 13, 2012 3:01PM
Updated: 6 p.m. ET

Here's the problem with Intel (INTC).

Since the end of April, it has been the second-worst performer among stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) after Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and only 88th among stocks in the Nasdaq-100 Index ($NDX).

The stock has fallen for eight straight days and nine of the last 10. It has hit 52-week lows every day for the past five days, including Tuesday, when it hit $20.18. It closed at $20.28, down 48 cents. It was rising after hours.
Does that mean it's close to a bottom?

It's not clear, which may be why one should watch the stock carefully. The stock is flirting with falling below $20 for the first time since September 2011, and the chart of the stock suggests little support at that level. There is support, however, at $19.

Intel is suffering all sorts of, well, insults. It's no longer the world's most valuable semiconductor manufacturer. That title now belongs to Qualcomm (QCOM), whose market capitalization is now approaching $107 billion. Intel's market cap is $102 billion.

Qualcomm's ascendancy is one reason why Intel shares are struggling. Qualcomm makes chips used in smartphones. It has designed much of the technology that defines mobile telephony.

Intel is still struggling with personal computers, whose sales are falling so fast that Apple's (AAPL) iPad is now the dominant player in mobile computing.

Notebook computer production is apparently going to be flat in the fourth quarter compared with the third quarter. The industry had been looking for 5% to 10% growth.

Sales of Ultrabook computers are apparently weaker than expected, according to a research note by chip analyst Joanne Feeney of Longbow Research. Ultrabooks are slim and light notebook computers that Intel has been promoting among its manufacturing partners.

MarketWatch reported that Barclays analyst Ben Reitzes expects PC sales to fall 3% this year, down from an earlier projection of flat growth. Next year, PC shipments are seen slipping 4% year over year, worse than an earlier projection for a 1% decline.

"The consumer market remains weak and the tablet and smartphone markets continue to cannibalize the PC market; the iPad mini, new iPad and the iPhone 5 could continue to take wallet share," Reitzes wrote.

And Feeney noted that there's talk that Intel and rival Advanced Micro Devices are discounting prices to manufacturers.

Also pressuring the stock: Media reports last week said Intel chips may be dropped from Apple's line of Macintosh computers within the next few years, with Apple-designed chips taking over. Apple started using Intel's processors in its Macs seven years ago.

To be fair, Intel is not going away. It's working on new chips to compete better in the smartphone/tablet market. And it remains a terrifically profitable company; its gross profit margin is above 60%. It has only $7 billion in debt against assets of $71 billion.

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9Comments
Nov 13, 2012 5:27PM
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V L    You are very long-winded. What is your drug of choice?  Meth? Coke? Speed?

 Or just too much caffeine? or is it a combo?
Nov 13, 2012 6:05PM
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Well, you all were warned this morning when we were up over 80 points....Be cautious, we saw the exact type of manipulation yesterday; we call it as we see it folks, nothing made up...We had another sucker's rally just like we did yesterday, this time scumbags called for the selloff at about 1510 hrs or so and after that, the day was over....The Obummer selloff continues apparently, we were hoping it was just a short term deal....Oh well, what else can we do but come back tomorrow and go back to work. Manipulators are in heave now and the rest of Wall Street does not trust this president; again, he didn't do a positive thing for jobs and businesses in 4 years, what makes anyone think he will now? I'm sure everyone has heard the definition of insanity....Oh well....Sad
Nov 13, 2012 3:36PM
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Intel's close to a bottom, Microsoft's at a bottom and Nokia's bounced 60%.
Nov 13, 2012 4:56PM
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rally?  what rally?  out of the fire and into the Greece .... look out below ...

 

the menu?  Roast Apple and Grilled Bull Meat ....

Nov 13, 2012 3:29PM
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When wasn't Intel at the bottom? They make product out of sand and over-produced. When excessive inventory was an issue they switched it B2B to make it disappear. It's a really poorly run business that thrives as others pump technology nobody really needs or uses to it's cutting edge.
Nov 13, 2012 3:35PM
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So where are we going? Apparently, the grubbers who grubbed the currency into compromise are refusing to cooperate even as eminent collapse looms nearer everyday. You cannot win. You can't even place. You sold your assimilation out and now you are just pimples on the butt of existence. Who in their right mind ever thought that taking from the crux of America would somehow create a free pass to the stairway to Heaven and riches beyond the grave? If you are doing well in the Wall street markets but condemn all those who aren't... YOU are the problem. Two-thirds of our assets are buried and lost in Euro investments that will NEVER play out. The other third is in the inherited businesses that no longer benefit or have value to America. Did YOU go to college to learn that? A detour to the School of Hard Knocks would have dashed that trash education. START FIXING WHAT YOU BROKE. If we have to, we won't need you. 
Nov 13, 2012 4:53PM
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The new definition of Trolling: It's what Wall Street does everyday. They bring garbage credit to the Fed and exchange it for electronic money. They buy each other's stocks and inflate the price. When someone is stupid enough to buy with them, they sell theirs and take the false profits home to feed the other financial pariah. If no one bites, they draw the borrowed money in and take the losses a****, generally concocting some lame story about the color of the moon on Sunday as the reason for the loss. In truth though, it's because Wall Street has fully destroyed America and much of the known world.

It's getting cold outside. A reminder that good people will die while a grossly overpaid Congress "talks" about fixing our problems. Did you ever think it would get like this? I did. You didn't listen.

Nov 13, 2012 3:37PM
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The FISCAL CLIFF is only going to hurt people with jobs, money and a rut existence. Everybody else has a Plan B. Bye bye, rich guys. You can't buy a place in poverty, you are what you are and in your cases... that won't be squat.
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