Welcome to the sell-off

Once again, warning signs from high-yield bonds and emerging-market stocks prove prescient as equities tip over into a new downtrend.

By Anthony Mirhaydari Feb 7, 2013 1:57PM

 Arrow Down copyright ImageSource, PictureQuestClearly, as outlined in my recent columns and blog posts, I've been skeptical of this move to Dow 14,000. The fundamentals weren't there. The technicals weren't there.

 

And sentiment had reached extremes not seen since the 2007 and 2000 bull market tops. 


With political uncertainty over the horizon (elections in Europe, budget fights here at home) and signs that savvy traders were already headed for the exits (weakness in foreign stocks and "junk" bonds), I recommended that my readers and clients book long profits and add new short positions ahead of a pullback.

 

Thursday, for the first time in months, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) tipped into a new downtrend. Here's why I expect it to continue, and how you can profit from the return of reality to Wall Street.

 

Not only has the Dow dropped below its recent trading range, but technical directional indicators, from the Coppock curve to the percentage price oscillator to the parabolic stop-and-reverse, have all flipped into downtrend mode. So that's one red flag.

 

Another has been the recent weakness in leading indicators of the strength of the market.

 

 

Emerging market stocks, which are very sensitive to changes in the trajectory of global economic growth, peaked in early January and have been drifting lower ever since. Now, they are falling out of bed with the iShares Emerging Markets (EEM) slicing below its 50-day moving average for the first time since November. The iShares China (FXI) is on track for its firs close below its 50-day MA since September.

 

There's more.

 

High-yield "junk" bonds topped out two weeks ago and have been sliding lower -- even as stocks repeatedly bashed their head against Dow 14,000. Now, the iShares High Yield Corporate Bond Fund (HYG) is on track for its first sub 50-day MA close since November.

 

And relative to defensive, consumer staples stocks, the Morgan Stanley Cyclicals Index ($CYC) is falling at a pace not seen since November.

 

In response, I continue to recommend my clients hold short positions against key materials stocks, including U.S. Steel (X). But I'm also recommending new short against Europe via the ProShares UltraShort Europe (EPV) as well as the energy sector via the ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas (DUG). I'm adding both DUG and EPV to my Edge Letter Sample Portfolio.

 

Disclosure: Anthony has recommended EPV, DUG, and X short to his clients.
 

Be sure to check out Anthony's new investment newsletter, the Edge, and his money management service, Mirhaydari Capital Management. A two-week free trial has been extended to MSN Money readers. Click the link above to sign up. Mirhaydari can be contacted at anthony@edgeletter.c​om and followed on Twitter at @EdgeLetter. You can view his current stock picks here. Feel free to comment below.

116Comments
Feb 7, 2013 3:58PM
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Anthony is a con artist whose only goal is to get newbie investors to panic. He does this because A) He is shorting the market, or B) He has friends who are shorting the market and compensating him under the table. He is little better than a common boiler-room stock basher. A real scumbag. 

Feb 7, 2013 3:48PM
Feb 7, 2013 3:39PM
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Since 2008 i have bought alot of 1 oz. gold eagles, silver and duke and kinder morgan stocks and still holding these positions and doing quite well. I will stay this course for years to come. Our currency will eventually fall out of it's reserve status and gold will hit 5000-6000 an ounce.
Feb 7, 2013 3:31PM
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Well I've e-mailed Mr. Anthony in the pass  regarding some of his over the top collumns. I've booked some good short term profits against his advise. However, in this case I have to agree, in fact I pulled back around 45% into nice safe boring 3% fixed investments during the last week of December. I don't trust those republican bums in Washington to actually do their job, they just want to obstruct. Sure I missed some profits but I've got 2 years to go until retirement, bird in hand is worth 2 in the bush. And no thanks to Bush I will retire and be very comfortable.

Feb 7, 2013 3:26PM
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There is an old saying, Never Fight the Fed...

If the Fed is going to continue their massive money printing, then the stock market will continue to adjust prices higher to account for the devaluation of the dollar.   This same thing has propelled gold from 853.25 (the day Obama took office) to 1672.45 today (a 96% increase).

As long as Helicopter Ben is going to print 85 billion/month (roughly $1000/family every month) the market will move higher in dollar terms.

Morale, of the story is don't fight the FED, just adjust your prices higher to reflect that....
Feb 7, 2013 3:22PM
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Next week Anthony will tell us to expect a rally. This guy flip-flops more than a fish out of water.
Feb 7, 2013 3:21PM
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I think the budget talks will be depressing and, from Europe, Spain may finally decide to leave the euro pressed by its huge unemployment.
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Anthony!

After my first comment I have read and will down load your article.  Thank you for noting the sources of

your information.  I am listing you as a good information source, a thinker, and a person who would

help a little child with their A, B, C's.  I could hardly get 70% in spelling at school, but I am still trying.

William B. Smith

Feb 7, 2013 3:15PM
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Went to money market 1-31-13 and their I stay. Moved in July 2007 to money market then the market dropped Oct. 2007. Got back in March 2009 to stocks and won big time yes you can time the market thank you. I am up 652% from that move buying low, selling high never do I defy that golden rule.  The reason beyond statistics' stares you right in the face of simplicity so I hope you all do not end up saying I should a, could a and did not. talking heads come and go but history remains the same.
Feb 7, 2013 3:13PM
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Short sellers just wait for another Mirhaydari column...the guy is a fraud.
Feb 7, 2013 3:02PM
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I'm ready for the sale. I've clipped my coupons and the car is topped off.
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Anthony!

You are in good company.  I refer to Mr. Karlgaard, publisher of Forbes, in his WSJ articale, "The Stock

Rally That Isn't, 02-06-13."  But you have prepublished him with some of your other articles.

Congratulations!

William B. Smith

Feb 7, 2013 3:01PM
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Sooner or later , Anthony....there WILL be a fire , as you 've yelled  " FIRE  " enough to be right

at some point .  The only people buying your " Letter " must be those who want to know what you're

thinking .....so they can do the opposite .  Pathetic ;  really ......

Feb 7, 2013 2:52PM
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Anthony Mirhaydari - Stop trying to manipulate the market to your personal advantage.
Feb 7, 2013 2:51PM
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From the Coppock Curve to Anthony's POPPYCOCK - different name same BS.
Feb 7, 2013 2:46PM
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The oldest and best adage is never try to time the market!  It does not work! You may miss a downturn but you will also miss a sudden up turn.  If you keep predicting a downturn you will eventually be right just as if you keep predicting an up turn you will eventually be right.

  This guy should know that but he has to do something to justify his possition.

  I would be this guy is right less than half the time and you would lose your shirt following his advice.

  I have some snake oil abd prime florida swamp land for you!

Feb 7, 2013 2:29PM
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Anthony - you need a statistics lesson !!!
Feb 7, 2013 2:22PM
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Stick it out for two more months - http://modeltstocktrends.blogspot.com/2013/01/sell-your-stocks-in-may.html
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