Why Greece is headed out of the euro

The economy may sink ever deeper in to recession, leaving the country unable to meet even looser austerity demands.

By Jim J. Jubak May 24, 2012 4:44PM
Image: Europe (© Photodisc/SuperStock)There is a logic to the "failure" of Wednesday's European summit.

European leaders meeting faced a tough choice.

No. 1. They could put together a package of growth measures now that might give Greece (and Spain and Italy) some reason to hope that it didn't face an endless course of austerity medicine.

No. 2. They could opt to do nothing except hold Greece's feet to the fire by repeating over and over again that the country must honor its bailout deal.

The summit wound up opting for No. 2, partly because doing nothing is always easier than banging heads together in order to do something, but mostly because of Greek politics.

European leaders know that as big a deal as the June 17 Greek election is, the really tough test will come when a new Greek government will face having to cut another 10 to 15 billion euros from the Greek budget before the end of the June in order to keep to the bailout deal.

The decision to do nothing represents the best guess among Europe's political leaders of how to manage that post-election scenario in order to maximize the very slim chance that Greece will stay in the euro.

Here's the problem posed by the Greek election and its aftermath.

If a coalition of "no to the bailout deal" wins, and refuses to make the cuts required by the deal, Greece is headed out of the euro relatively quickly. In the face of a direct challenge like this the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank would find it just about impossible to turn over the next cash payment from the bailout fund. And without that money Greece is broke in August.

The best way to head off a victory by Syriza and its "no to the deal" allies, the thinking seems to run in Germany and other hard-line governments, is to play hardball so that Greeks treat the June 17 vote as a referendum on the euro. (There is, of course, the chance that Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras doesn’t want to win the vote or would refuse to form a government on the logic that any Greek government that did impose another round of austerity wouldn’t last very long and Syriza would do even better in the next election.)

If a coalition headed by New Democracy and other parties that say they're committed to the euro (and to finding a way to keep the bailout deal) wins, that government would face a huge problem. Another 10 billion in austerity cuts would bring even more Greeks into the streets. The country might indeed become ungovernable. The government might fall almost immediately. And Greece would be headed out of the euro in August anyway.

What could prevent the failure of a "live up to the deal" government?

Well, the bigger a growth package European leaders could deliver to that government after the election (especially if it included some flexibility on when Greece had to meet the bailout deal benchmarks), the more political capital European leaders would deliver to that Greek government. Think of the difference between standing in front of the Greek parliament to say, "We have no choice but to obey our creditors" and standing in front of the Greek parliament to say, "Yes, we have to take the pain but this government has also been able to deliver a package of hope."

The odds aren't especially good that New Democracy and its allies can win the June 17 election, or actually form a coalition government, or survive the post-election austerity deadlines. But delaying any growth package until after the June election so that a new Greek government could get credit for delivering it, is about the best that anybody can do to improve the chance that Greece will stay in the euro past August.

After August, I think the Greek economy sinks ever deeper in to recession, the country cannot meet even looser austerity demands, and it heads out of the euro anyway.

But the preferred method in this crisis has been to kick the can down the road, and I think non-action at this summit fits that bias.

Next up the Greek elections on June 17 and then another European summit at the end of the month, dedicated to developing a growth package.

Hope you weren't expecting this crisis to go away soon.

At the time of this writing, Jim Jubak didn't own shares of any companies mentioned in this post in personal portfolios. The mutual fund he manages, Jubak Global Equity Fund (JUBAX), may or may not own positions in any stock mentioned. post. The fund did not own shares
of any stock mentioned in this post as of the end of December. For For a full list of the stocks in the fund as of the end of the most recent quarter, see the fund's portfolio here
23Comments
May 24, 2012 10:21PM
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It seems like Angela Merkel is the only leader in the world that knows what the right thing to do is.  She seems to be the only one that knows that more money thrown at these countries will be a waste and in the end will cause Weimar Republic style hyper inflation.  All of you PhD's that have been in charge and have been students of Keynesian philosopy on steroids...throw more debt on debt to get us out of debt when there is no underlaying reason for growth to happen on the other side of the debt need to leave the experiments in your overpriced Universities and off of the streets.  Let the markets find their own equalibrium and quit playing with the money supply.  Even a child at a lemonade stand knows that if there is not an increase in lemonade buyers, he will not borrow more money from his parents to buy more cups if he can't sell more lemonade the next day. Of course in the U.S. our government has outlawed lemonade stands.  So instead of our future leaders learning business the real way...we get Harvard and Wharton MBAs that have put us in this irreversible mess. 

 

 

I am glad that Germany is standing firm.  The European countries and America as well have had since WWII to address their structural issues and banking weaknesses.  If the eurobond solution was a solution to give them more time to address their issues I would be in favor of it.  But they have the same problem that we have here in the U.S. ....it is not politically possible for our leaders to get our house in order and spend within our means by spending  what we produce and no more.  I am afraid we all will need to go through rough times, the system will have to crash to reset and we will all have to suffer now instead of pushing the debt that is mounting like a snowball to the next generation.  Our generation is spoiled and do not want to suffer and so our politicians are the ones that we elect to push the debt down the road to future generation.  It is incredibly selfish.   The Europeans and we Americans are going to have to learn to live without normal healthcare, pensions and bloated government beauracracy and a 12 carrier group Navy for a generation so that we can clean the house of non producing Wall Street money managers, Bankers and Government workers that do not give an honest days labor for an honest days work.   When this happens, people will become more real again, appreciate the small things in life, need each other and maybe enjoy daily life in a more balanced way.

More bailouts and time here and in Europe will only add more gasoline to the fire and will not last long...just like our quantitative easing 1 and 2 here did not solve the problem but put more money in bankers pockets.  Unemployment will only change in all of our countries when our currencies become valued at what they should be valued and the Euro is no longer.  This will bring back manufacturing to all of our countries because the currencies will be valued based on GDP and exports and manufacturing and the weaker countries will have lower value currencies which will make them more competitive and bring a manufacturing incentive there.  We need this so that China is not the manufacturer for the world, which snuffs out everyone else and makes them either a service economy or a commodities exporter which is not diverse enough.  Then all of the countries will offer a value added  production based economy with high level engineering and production and an increase in  real local taxes, not by raising taxes but by creating more taxpayers which is called widening the tax base which is the only solution out of this mess.

Angela Merkel, if you read this, stay tough, don't give in.  We all need the medicine of what needs to happen. 

May 24, 2012 6:35PM
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"The summit wound up opting for No. 2, partly because doing nothing is always easier than banging heads together in order to do something, but mostly because of Greek politics."

 

They ended up doing #2 becasue it's the RIGHT thing to do. This whole TBTF mentality has to stop somewhere. They have to send a message to all the EU that it's an economic union and it's not all for one and one for all. Sooner or later California is going to get the same message and so is the US. You don't spend other peoples many so that the lazy and underachievers can have what others earned.  It's no different in China, Europe or the US. Who cares if banks and hedge funds lose another $1 trillion.

May 24, 2012 6:00PM
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Greece is headed out of the Euro because Greek voters won't approve any further tax increases and won't approve any further spending cuts.  To date the discrepancy between taxes and spending was made up by borrowing.  Now that lenders are unwilling to keep rolling over bad debt (having already been beat into a near 75% haircut), it's apparent that the only way to make up the difference between taxes and spending is to print the money.  To do that, the Greeks need to exit the Euro and print their own Drachmae.  As between repaying lenders or just printing the money, the Greeks will opt to print the money.  That has some very bad conseequences, but it's the least bad option for a Greek pensioner who votes.
May 25, 2012 4:50AM
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HI,

Germany is  right when it plays  hard ball  with Governments and people who dont live within their means. It would be better  if  Greece , Italy leave the  euro since  there is no way they  will be able to pay  the debts  without  making drastic changes  in their spending habits  . Having their  own currency would force them to be austere and live within their  means rather than expecting other  countries  to foot the  bill. 
May 25, 2012 12:18AM
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There comes a time when a nation must pay the piper. Greece long since reached that point, but the Greeks refuse to accept it. The Greeks still want to have their socialist "paradise" and want the rest of Europe to foot the bill.

Some day, this scenario will play out through much of the rest of the world, including the United States.

May 25, 2012 2:36AM
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This MUST DO austerity is coming to a state,city,town,village near ALL of you in America. T
he govt of the USA keeps kicking it down the road .And, all Americans believe that their problems are over(Billions of subprime mortg sold to European banks) and Europe's problem is not their business.America Can not pay the Trillions owed in debt and NEVER will be able to pay.
Even running the printing press forever.
May 25, 2012 8:29AM
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Greece has wore out it's welcome when it comes to spending other countries/peoples money.  Greece just as well continue on the path they have chosen.  After all, debt is not a problem as long as someone else is willing to finance irresponsibility.

 

How far in debt is far enough?  How does going deeper into debt get you out of debt?  In the USA it appears we are going to find out.  There are consequences for irresponsibility. 

 

There is no law against being stupid, but it is expensive, and like it or not we're going to be handed the bill. 

 

Party on because when the bill comes due it's going to be hell to pay.

May 25, 2012 10:27AM
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In a pure free market the markets and goods and services are self regulating daily by supply and demand. 

 

There is NO such thing as a pure free market.  Name one and I'll send you a check for $1,000.00.  The U.S. has never been a pure free market.  We've always been a mixed economy.

 

You free market types never want to look at the downside of lassiez faire economics.  Open a book every now and then.  How honest do you think the markets would be without any form of regulation?  You want monopolies?  You want price gouging and collusion among companies?  You want a return to the Robber Barons?  Do you want no accounting rules for publicly traded companies?  You're asking for all of those things with this "pure free market" bunkum.

 

Look at Germany, Sweden, and Finland. They are far more social in their public policy than us, yet they aren't experiencing near the problems.  It's because they don't have the structural unemployment problems experienced in Spain, Italy, and Greece (and here, for that matter).  They don't have out of control health care expenses because their health care systems are much more strictly regulated from a price standpoint.  Medicare is the cause of our bloated spending budget and it's the insurance and pharma companies largely to blame for our exploding health care costs.  Too many hands in the health care pot trying to make a profit.

May 24, 2012 6:18PM
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They'll kick it until after the USA election.
May 25, 2012 2:56AM
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Greece and Italy would both be better out of the Euro.  They make most of their money from tourism and need to adjust their exchange rates to be accomodative to tourists. The strong Euro totally out of their control killed tourism in both of these countries.  Instead of gradually adjusting their rates now Greece will have to do it all at once. This will destroy the savings of the little guy since by now the major players have gotten their money out of the Greek banks.
May 25, 2012 10:45AM
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J Del, Greece just showed you socialism doesn't work.

 

Greece isn't a socialist country, they're a mixed economy.  Too much socialism is a bad thing.  Too much capitalism is a bad thing.  A healthy economic system must strike a balance between the two, and that balance isn't the same for every national economy.  Greece's problems are far more complex than social policies.

 

Why isn't Germany struggling?  They're more social in their policies than we are.

 

"For every complex problem, there is a simple answer that is clear, simple, and wrong."

- H.L. Menken

May 24, 2012 6:11PM
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Btw, what are the "so bad" consequences of Greece leaving the Eurozone (besides of course that the creditors won't see a europenny out of the billions they keep giving, haha)? Everybody is talking about that, yet I cannot find clear and specific explanation as to what would happen?
May 24, 2012 10:15PM
May 25, 2012 10:05AM
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I agree with you Soth Side....it will come to America as well.  J Del, socialism is the problem which got all of us and Europe in this debt mess in the first place. The government needs to stay out of the market and not manipulate the money supply or interest rates or allow central banks to lend money to governments for social programs and bloated government beauracracy which comes from socialsm. It just leads to excess spending that a society cannot afford.  In a pure free market the markets and goods and services are self regulating daily by supply and demand.  The job of the government should be only to provide a court and legal system and to band together for an army to fight an invader, not to go to other countries and get involved in their problems.  The founding fathers and the U.S. Constitution were briliant in anticiapating all the of the problems that we find our selves in now, because we have abandoned their direction and the Constitution.
May 25, 2012 10:39AM
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J Del, Greece just showed you socialism doesn't work.       The socialists continue to try to borrow money to make utopia were people don't have to work but get the high life.

You can't fight supply and demand.   It's the force that balances sooner or later in all economies.   
Unions try to fight this natural force, but they to will always fail.

Faster, better, and cheaper, why  you have a cell phone in your hand, a computer on your desk and a car in the driveway.   Socialism can not accomplish this.  It's all proven in history.
May 25, 2012 3:29PM
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We are headed for the same thing. The US deficit spending is out of hand. The thought in Washington is that government dollars cause growth. Remember, when they give you money they always want something in return. That return is control. What does the US government not control?
May 25, 2012 1:54PM
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Unfortunately the world will probably not learn from the mistakes that have been made. The irony in this situation is after WWII, Germany was made to be weak so that they could never dominate Europe again. For the third time in a hundred years, the Germans have become the strongest nation on mainland Europe, albeit monetarily strong, under sound economics, and not the military bully this time. Time to bust up the EU and slowly divest itself country by country so that all economies can grow at their own paces, with their own strengths.
May 25, 2012 8:13PM
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Perhaps Yanni could perform another world tour with proceeds going to his home country, it could be considered an endangered species also.
May 25, 2012 7:21AM
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Austerity doesnt work.  More cuts only results in more cuts as jobs and earners and tax payers disappear, so debt must go up.  What is needed is new investment and no business will invest in economic circumstances of more cuts.  The real fundimental problem is bankers and 'capitalists' have run the show and ruined their economies for everyone else while they made piles of money.  Well, in Greece and France, no more.  These countries will show that vulture capitalism, that results in more money for the few, and stagnation for everyone else is not the only option.  

Personally, I favor market socialism and anarcho socialism, with non porfit co operatives which beneifet everybody, not just the wealthy few, handling the money, making investments, reviving the economy.

Obama could have funded credit unions and community banks that really would have invested in our communities instead of bailing out predatory big banks.  Their success only results in more money for the rich and a stagnant  middle class.  Romney will of course, hand the goverment over to predatory capitalism.  There may be a few more jobs, but they will pay less, a lot less.  Sure, Bain created jobs (and destroyed jobs), but they did it by by cutting wages and benefits thus making businesses they screwd with profitable for them.  Predatory capitalists are upset by criticism. Well, they brought it on themselves. Greed is good? Yeah right. 

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