Gold's run is hardly done

Take advantage of the lull, because the metal has yet to peak.

By Jim Cramer Jan 4, 2011 9:40AM

more investment tips and market commentary from jim cramer at thestreetTime for a break for gold? After still one more astonishing performance, in keeping with the 10-year outperformance of the precious metal, it seems reasonable to think that gold can cool off for a bit. The gold stocks themselves are saying the same thing, taking a real breather for the past few weeks.


To which I say: Take advantage of the weakness if you haven't already, as we are hardly done with the run. Why? Because the one thing we know about 2011 is that currencies are suspect. Paper is suspect. There's too much being printed here. There's too much that's going to be printed in Europe. The stuff's worth less and less.


That means gold will be worth more and more.


We got some really interesting news about gold Monday morning. The U.S. Mint says gold coin sales fell 14% this year and 74% in December. Funny thing, as someone who tried to buy U.S. coins in December, I can confirm that there was a real scarcity. My dealer reported that he just couldn't get any coins and tried to sell me Australian bullion. Very telling.

We've seen big demand for gold out of China all year, and we saw lots of demand out of India, demand that tapered off at the end of the wedding season in December, according to my best source on metal, Strategic Energy Research, in my own hometown of Summit, N.J.


But can you imagine what would happen if our own country caught gold fever and the U.S. Mint obliged by making gold available? Does it even have enough gold available to make all the coins that are in demand?


I remain convinced that gold, which is less than 1% of the average fund manager's portfolio worldwide, will not peak until it represents something like 5%, much more the historic mean.

That means the lull represents still one more opportunity to buy gold and gold stocks, which might be under pressure because of the stalling.


Nothing like a nice refreshing pause to get those folks underweighted in gold up to the 20% I find reasonable, given the need of almost all countries, save China, to print more money.


Don't expect gold to get away from you here. Expect some selling as people take profits. Slowly leg in. No hurry. But please don't miss it this time.


At the time of publication, Cramer was long Novagold Resources (NG).


Jim Cramer is co-founder and chairman of TheStreet. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO.


Follow Cramer's trades for his Charitable Trust.


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Jan 4, 2011 12:19PM

Again, Cramer misses the point.


Yes, currency is currently weak, but will improve as the greater economy improves.  Therefore, as Cramer himself admits, as Gold rises based on a weakening currency, the primary engine for the growth of gold will vanish.  As things get better, Gold will begin its slide in value, just like its crash in 1982.


Gold probably has one more run in it, but I got out ages ago.  At this point, everyone without money invested already missed the run, and getting involved at the TOP of a bubble is never good economic policy.

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