BNY Mellon shares unfairly punished in euro crisis

The bank has much less exposure to the eurozone than some of its major peers.

By Trefis Dec 6, 2011 2:53PM
Image: Bank Vault (© Radius Images/Jupiterimages)Bank of New York Mellon (BK) was trading at less than $20 per share Tuesday, about 40% below the 52-week high hit in January.

No doubt the global economic slowdown, aggravated by the escalating debt situation in Europe, has considerably impaired the financial institution's outlook for this year and next. But the current share prices hardly do justice to the value of the bank, which holds the distinction of being the largest custodian bank in the world.

BNY Mellon has much less exposure to the eurozone compared to other major banks -- particularly investment banks such as Morgan Stanley (MS). However, its shares have taken the same punishment meted out to other Wall Street banks in recent months, reiterating the level of pessimism in the market.

We have updated our price estimate for BNY Mellon's stock from $34 to just under $27 and detail below the reasons for this reduction in our estimate.


See our full analysis for BNY Mellon


Assets under management see slower growth


BNY Mellon is a major player in the global asset management field, with the bank consistently ranking among the top 10 asset managers in the U.S. since the merger of Bank of New York and Mellon Financial. In fact, according to the bank's annual report, its nearly $1.2 billion assets under management helped it rank 11th among global asset managers.


BNY Mellon Assets Under Management

But BNY Mellon is unlikely to be able to sustain the strong 5% growth in its asset base from last year –- at least over the next two years. The bank's assets under management have grown by just above 2% year-to-date. And as economies around the globe come out of the effects of this slowdown, we expect BNY Mellon to see a pickup in growth figures, starting with a 2.5% rate for 2012. This is significantly lower than our initial estimates of sustained 5% growth through the end of our forecast period.


Decline in asset servicing fees


Asset servicing activities, which include global custody, global fund services and securities lending, are expected to be driven largely by emerging economies over the medium and long term with stability issues raising doubts about the "strong" European economies.


BNY Mellon Servicing Fee as percent of Assets under Custody

While this would help BNY Mellon's assets under custody grow over the forecast period, it also signifies a need to reduce servicing fees in order to ensure competitiveness in these markets. We expect to see a reversal in the current trend of increasing asset servicing fees (as a percentage of assets under custody), with the figure trending towards 0.01% by the end of our forecast period.


0Comments

DATA PROVIDERS

Copyright © 2013 Microsoft. All rights reserved.

Quotes are real-time for NASDAQ, NYSE and AMEX. See delay times for other exchanges.

Fundamental company data and historical chart data provided by Thomson Reuters (click for restrictions). Real-time quotes provided by BATS Exchange. Real-time index quotes and delayed quotes supplied by Interactive Data Real-Time Services. Fund summary, fund performance and dividend data provided by Morningstar Inc. Analyst recommendations provided by Zacks Investment Research. StockScouter data provided by Verus Analytics. IPO data provided by Hoover's Inc. Index membership data provided by SIX Financial Information.

Japanese stock price data provided by Nomura Research Institute Ltd.; quotes delayed 20 minutes. Canadian fund data provided by CANNEX Financial Exchanges Ltd.

STOCK SCOUTER

StockScouter rates stocks from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best, using a system of advanced mathematics to determine a stock's expected risk and return. Ratings are displayed on a bell curve, meaning there will be fewer ratings of 1 and 10 and far more of 4 through 7.

125
125 rated 1
272
272 rated 2
424
424 rated 3
589
589 rated 4
696
696 rated 5
590
590 rated 6
666
666 rated 7
435
435 rated 8
260
260 rated 9
143
143 rated 10
12345678910

Top Picks

SYMBOLNAMERATING
ABTAbbott Laboratories10
AIGAmerican International Group Inc10
AMTDTD Ameritrade Holding Corp10
ATVIActivision Blizzard Inc10
CACA Inc10
More
Fidelity Brokerage Services, Member NYSE, SIPC. (c) 2011 FMR LLC. All rights reserved

VIDEO ON MSN MONEY

ABOUT

Top Stocks provides analysis about the most noteworthy stocks in the market each day, combining some of the best content from around the MSN Money site and the rest of the Web.

Contributors include professional investors and journalists affiliated with MSN Money.

Follow us on Twitter @topstocksmsn.