From hope to hopeless on budget talks
We have to determine where the market can find firm support on a definite lack of real negotiation.
It's going to get old real soon. That's how I am starting to feel about this Washington situation. If neither side is choosing to negotiate in earnest on the fiscal cliff issues, then the market will have to reach a level where everyone has figured out there will be no earnest negotiation, and they aren't selling regardless.
Last week seemed incredibly confusing. On the one hand, there was plenty of talk about how a deal could be reached. I keep thinking about that comment from Goldman Sachs (GS) CEO Lloyd Blankfein in particular -- the one that said the sides were real close. How could he say that if it weren't at all true? Wasn't it based on something? How about all of those CEOs? Don't they make any difference? We thought they did last week.
On the other hand we have the perception that, if Washington was near a deal, something critical broke down -- because the positions got further apart over the weekend.
What happened in those intervening days, when the business leaders were hopeful and when President Obama went to the Pennsylvania toy factory? Did Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner misjudge things and play too much hardball?
- Also see: 'Mad Money' recap: reasons to worry
I am thinking like this because it is highly unusual to see a situation go from hope to no hope in three days without anything really changing.
I have to tell you that, behind the scenes, the presidents' people are very certain that there will be a deal -- so certain that it's a bit daunting. Maybe that's what the business leaders were imbibing.
To me, the important thing is how quickly the complete transformation was made. This went from last Wednesday's happy belief that a deal will be struck, to a harder line by both sides Friday, to a total collapse by Monday. That last stage was on the heels of a Republican offer that someone would put out only if they wanted to end talks. Sure, I am certain some people thought Monday's Republican gambit had some substance, but to me it was more of the same.
Get that "total collapse" offer into the market. Figure out where there is no hope -- and then the market will have some firmer footing, which is certainly lacking right now.
Jim Cramer is a co-founder of TheStreet and contributes daily market commentary to the financial news network's sites. Follow his trades for Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust and has no positions in stocks mentioned.
More from TheStreet.com
I am sticking with it's all grand standing, the deal is already done and both sides are making the situation look so dire so they can go back to the extreme right and left and say they had no choice.
Unless the cliff is the deal....
Maybe...No one should be allowed to vote, IF their IQ is under 80.....hmmmmmm.
And maybe no one should be allowed to comment with an IQ under 110.......hmmmmm.
Just sayin'.......Delky ??
Yup......That's what I was THINKING....Rev. Wright,runs America.
OMG...What the hell is that coming up the driveway.....??
From Hope to Hopeless............that's OBAMA's AGENDA
He is up to destroy America..........as Rev. Wright preached him to do!
A Revolution is coming.................
Barack Obama fared well across the country Tuesday night, winning 332 electoral votes en route to a second term as president. Nowhere did he perform better, however, than in states that place the highest emphasis on education.
Of the 10 most educated states, measured by the percentage of residents over 25 years old who have a bachelor’s degree or higher, Obama swept all 10. Conversely, among the 10 least educated states, Obama lost 9 states.
Here are the 10 most educated states, with those Obama won underlined. The percentage of residents over 25 with a college degree is in parentheses:
Most educated states
Least educated states
West Virginia (18.5%)
New Jersey (35.3%)
New Hampshire (33.4%)
New York (32.9%)
Obama Wins 8 of the Nation’s 10 Wealthiest Counties
Published: Wednesday, 7 Nov 2012 | 10:35 AM ET
In an election that often focused on debates about class warfare, President Barack Obama was favored over multimillionaire businessman Mitt Romney in eight of the nation's10 wealthiest And his margin of victory in all eight counties was greater than that of the national vote, in which Obama was leading by 50 percent to 48 percent with 97 percent of precincts reporting.
The findings are based on a CNBC.com analysis of Census Bureau numbers on average annual household income from 2006-2011 and results from Tuesday's elections.
The 10 richest counties accounted for 1,337,700 votes, or about 1.1 percent of the national popular vote.
In none of the richest counties was the margin of victory wider than in California's Marin County, just north of San Francisco, where the president won by 74 percent to 23 percent, with all precincts reporting. In Marin, the average annual household income is $128,544.
The two richest counties where Romney won were in New Jersey: adjacent Hunterdon and Morris counties in the northern part of the state. Romney won in Morris by 55 percent to 44 percent and in Hunterdon by 59 percent to 40 percent. However, Somerset County, which abuts Hunterdon and Morris, went to Obama by 53 percent to 47 percent.
—By CNBC's Paul Toscano
Americans want a deal which includes higher tax for the upper 2%. The Republicans say F the 98% we made a deal and signed away or rights to serve the people.
Actually Miss Lilly....Says most should be taken out and shot...
Ahhhhhhh, I languish for the 1800s.
NEXT TIME IN....Once again you have me confused....Please make it simple for us Old Guys..
And many of the others, that only have an eighth grade edcatshun...Thank you,Sir.
Heavy cuts would cause deflation. The stock market would crash and the real estate market. The bounce real estate has came from QE3, All the stimulus money pumped up the financial markets. I don't agree with you. Obama wants inflation, or all the stimulus would be a waste if we have deflation.
Delmar...That is beneath you...What are the rest of the so-called esteemed leaders doing ??
Trying to backpaddling, name call and pull off piddly press conferences..?
And now they cannot use as an excuse...."Gonna get Obama out of office in 4 years."
About the ONLY agenda they had the last 4 years.....PATHETIC..
AND AMERICA ISN'T BUYING IT ANY MORE....
Does anyone recognize that the "fiscal cliff" represents $500B "savings" per year over 10 years.
This means we bring our deficit from (depending on which figure you believe) $1.35T to $850B per year? So in 10 years, even with this "unimaginable" cliff, we will still rack up $8T MORE debt.
I am sure they will compromise at some point. Obama's "plan" is to raise taxes $1.6T over 10 years. The GOP "plan" is to cut spending and raise revenue $2.2T over 10 years. Both plans lead to downgrades and default in 10 years.
Where is a "real" plan to balance the budget, ever?
MORE ON MSN MONEY
Copyright © 2013 Microsoft. All rights reserved.
Quotes are real-time for NASDAQ, NYSE and AMEX. See delay times for other exchanges.
Fundamental company data and historical chart data provided by Thomson Reuters (click for restrictions). Real-time quotes provided by BATS Exchange. Real-time index quotes and delayed quotes supplied by Interactive Data Real-Time Services. Fund summary, fund performance and dividend data provided by Morningstar Inc. Analyst recommendations provided by Zacks Investment Research. StockScouter data provided by Verus Analytics. IPO data provided by Hoover's Inc. Index membership data provided by SIX Financial Information.
All hail the bull market, which ended the week with a big rally. But it also is starting to look a little like 1987, which suffered an epic blow-out.
VIDEO ON MSN MONEY
Top Stocks provides analysis about the most noteworthy stocks in the market each day, combining some of the best content from around the MSN Money site and the rest of the Web.
Contributors include professional investors and journalists affiliated with MSN Money.
Follow us on Twitter @topstocksmsn.