From hope to hopeless on budget talks

We have to determine where the market can find firm support on a definite lack of real negotiation.

By Jim Cramer Dec 4, 2012 10:02AM

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Radius Images JupiterimagesIt's going to get old real soon. That's how I am starting to feel about this Washington situation. If neither side is choosing to negotiate in earnest on the fiscal cliff issues, then the market will have to reach a level where everyone has figured out there will be no earnest negotiation, and they aren't selling regardless.

 

Last week seemed incredibly confusing. On the one hand, there was plenty of talk about how a deal could be reached. I keep thinking about that comment from Goldman Sachs (GS) CEO Lloyd Blankfein in particular -- the one that said the sides were real close. How could he say that if it weren't at all true? Wasn't it based on something? How about all of those CEOs? Don't they make any difference? We thought they did last week.

 

On the other hand we have the perception that, if Washington was near a deal, something critical broke down -- because the positions got further apart over the weekend.


What happened in those intervening days, when the business leaders were hopeful and when President Obama went to the Pennsylvania toy factory? Did Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner misjudge things and play too much hardball?

I am thinking like this because it is highly unusual to see a situation go from hope to no hope in three days without anything really changing.

 

I have to tell you that, behind the scenes, the presidents' people are very certain that there will be a deal -- so certain that it's a bit daunting. Maybe that's what the business leaders were imbibing.

 

To me, the important thing is how quickly the complete transformation was made. This went from last Wednesday's happy belief that a deal will be struck, to a harder line by both sides Friday, to a total collapse by Monday. That last stage was on the heels of a Republican offer that someone would put out only if they wanted to end talks. Sure, I am certain some people thought Monday's Republican gambit had some substance, but to me it was more of the same.

 

Get that "total collapse" offer into the market. Figure out where there is no hope -- and then the market will have some firmer footing, which is certainly lacking right now.

 

JimCramer's face

 

Jim Cramer is a co-founder of TheStreet and contributes daily market commentary to the financial news network's sites. Follow his trades for Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust and has no positions in stocks mentioned.  

 

 


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311Comments
Dec 4, 2012 4:43PM
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CEO Lloyd Blankfein in particular -- the one that said the sides were real close. How could he say that if it weren't at all true? Wasn't it based on something? How about all of those CEOs? Don't they make any difference?

 

you are kidding.....you've been around them long enough to know that they are self-serving liars.....kinda like stock analysts

 

KOOLADE

Dec 4, 2012 4:43PM
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AMERICA IS DYING!!!!  

NEGROES, MEXICANS, STUPID WOMEN, ILLEGALS, DEMOCRATS, AND THE 47% ARE DRIVING NAILS IN OUR COFFIN AS I WRITE THIS!!!!!

STUPID GOVERNMENT AND STUPID AMERICANS (I USE THE TERM LOOSELY) HAVE MADE THIS ALL A REALITY!!

ENJOY!!!!!
Dec 4, 2012 4:37PM
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Obama doesn't want to strike a deal, he is following the Cloward-Piven strategy to make all the people dependent on the govt. until it collapses the economy. Just watch
Dec 4, 2012 4:36PM
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To hell with free enterprise, let us become a socialists society under dictator Obama!
Dec 4, 2012 4:35PM
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RPM.....You can walk across the Border pretty easy to Mexico or Canada...

 

And in someplaces you really don't need a lot of money...

Dec 4, 2012 4:30PM
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If I had the money, I would expatriate. The one's that have the money are already doing it.

There is more than a fiscal cliff coming from the white house in the next 4 years.

Dec 4, 2012 4:26PM
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seve...Obungles is pretty good at killing or having terrorist captured...

 

Don't really think, he is one.....Just sayin'

Dec 4, 2012 4:24PM
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We use dogs to pick stocks, MONKEYs have a tendancy to throw their feces around if they get mad.
Dec 4, 2012 4:23PM
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Obama distribute the wealth, just like communist "Lenin"  Where NEXT!!
Dec 4, 2012 4:22PM
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Geezus Christ, he woke up and hasn't got his shirt on yet....Are you gay??

 

No Sleepy, I just got tangled up in the cords when I fell on the floor laughing...

I think Endeavor is funny...Can't laugh at yourself, huh..Or hear yourself until you bend over ? hmmm

 

Amer. Patriot...We all know we have to reduce spending, but we need clawback a few tax breaks too.

Bend over and yell in some Republicans azz....DO YOU WANT NAMES.??

Dec 4, 2012 4:18PM
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obummer is a terrorist   get him out before its too late
Dec 4, 2012 4:17PM
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Miracles start at home. First of all, Congress should not pass any laws that are not also applicable to them. Congress entitlements should be on the table too to reduce the deficit. To begin with, let's cut spending by removing some of their outrageous entitlements like full pension after only serving five years and their tax payer subsidized health insurance. They should all  contribute to and get their pension from Social Security after the age of 65, like everybody else. As for Health care, they should all be placed under Obamacare.

Dec 4, 2012 4:17PM
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crammer is hopeless a monkey could do better at picking stock
Dec 4, 2012 4:12PM
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It's going over the cliff and the repubs are to blame. Obama was re-elected on the promise that he'll raise taxes on those making over $250K per year, which is about 2% of the population and he's sticking to it. Good for you Obama, at least 60% of this country is backing the dems on this one. If it does go over the cliff then watch how many seats the repubs will lose in 2014, it's going to be a one party show because the repubs are out of touch with the main stream. Tax the sh*t out of the wealthy, they can afford it,  If they don’t like it then they can go to another country where their tax rate will be even higher.  When are you repubs going to pull you heads out of you as*es and realize that trickle down doesn't work it never has and never will.  The only way to get this economy is to get more money into the hands of the middle class so they can start spending again, this will lead to more jobs because demand will increase for products and services then big Corps will start hiring again and spending some of that record cash they have in reserves.  Corporations are not going to create more jobs just to create more jobs, there has to be demand.

 

Dec 4, 2012 4:10PM
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Well I'm just going for 8000 posts, then my mission might be complete.

Less then 100 to go on this time around...

Back in the mid 2000s had maybe 1500-2000 and left for a few years, but we talked mostly about investing then......But it was usually on the MONEY Articles...

And under a different name...Think it was Anasazi ....?

Dec 4, 2012 4:08PM
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Staying away from all investments for awhile, watching and waiting 
Dec 4, 2012 4:07PM
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hehe oh man, you gotta just laugh at all this crap, this pig muslim bastard obama is the REASON there's a fiscal "cliff" to worry 'bout falling over and the Republicans are supposedly responsible for it?? in a recent poll a majority of people hate what this bastard obama is doing, yet they voted for this idiot, again!! so they hate the Republicans sooooooooooooo much that they in fact, are cutting off their own noses to spite their faces???

 

they're taxing themselves to death, voluntarily letting the home values plummet, those that have their homes still that is, letting gas prices skyrocket cuz they hate Republicans?? they hate obama care yet they voted this prick in, again!! they don't wanted their taxes raised, yet they voted for this prick, again!! the architect of the demise of this nation.

 

you know something you idiots deserve everything that's coming, EVERYTHING!! oh and especially you scumbag phony bleeding heart lib celebs, the taxes your gonna pay will leave you with sooooo much less cash to squander on your 100,000 dollar electric tinker toys and such nonsense, see that, something good outta all this shiiiiiiiiiiiit!! works for me in this case.

Dec 4, 2012 4:05PM
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Both sides have to say they see hope or progress in the negotiation process or they will be accused of giving up and causing us to go off of the cliff.  Every jacka-- that comes out and makes an announcement good or bad is just jockying for a position that leaves them guiltless when this thing crashes.   In addition, they and their cronies can trade on what is not really insider information, just information knowbody knows except the congressman getting ready to make a press release.  And anyone who trades on anything said by Goldman Sachs REALLY needs their heads examined.  Last time I heard, they didn't have a vote.  (That may have changed though)

 

Very easy to manipulate things right now. A congressional page could do it.

 

I still think the plan was to go off the cliff all along.  Why build it otherwise.  All the unpopular things become law and they can all say they didn't vote for it.

Dec 4, 2012 4:04PM
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That was # 111.......Or Trip Aces if you play poker, pays 30-1 on some tables....

 

$150 on nickel or red chip.

Dec 4, 2012 4:00PM
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Next time....Been accumulating over the last 6-8 months...Stagnation..

Only about 30% of what we have had in the past...about 8-10%.

 

Used to make money trading 2-4 times a year...

Now waiting for dollar dumping or inflation...?

Or the Goldbugs to scream Uncle and run with it...

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