Home Depot, Lowes, Target top earnings list

TJ Max, Saks and seven others report earnings, some following multi-year stock highs.

By TheStreet Staff May 20, 2013 12:01PM

thestreet logoImage: Stock market (© Zurbar/age fotostock)By Richard Suttmeier

 

This week's earnings reports focus on 18 buy-rated stocks in the retail-wholesale sector. This profile is on the front nine, those scheduled to report Monday, Tuesday and pre-market on Wednesday.


On Tuesday I focus on the back nine, those reporting after the close on Wednesday through pre-market on Friday.

 

Let's call an earnings beat a birdie, a match a par, and a miss a bogey. Having an under-par round of earnings from buy rated retail stocks will be a key to sustaining the upward momentum in the overall stock market.

 

Among last week's earnings reports were five buy-rated stocks in the retail-wholesale sector. Three beat earnings estimates and two missed, so there were three birdies and two bogies.

 

Dillards (DDS) ($92.01): Beat EPS estimates by 32 cents earning $2.40 on May 15. The stock reacted by setting a new multi-year high at $92.95 on May 16. On Saturday I took my wife to our local Dillards at the Wiregrass mall in Pasco County, Fla., to purchase a special on Estee Lauder products. To my surprise what I thought were mannequins in the sales displays were actually live models in bikinis. I guess that's their ploy to keep husbands interested. This week's value level is $90.00 with a monthly risky level at $95.24.

 

Nordstrom (JWN) ($60.68 vs. $59.17 a week ago): Missed EPS estimates by three cents earning 73 cents a share on May 16. On Friday the stock traded down to $58.75 then stabilized after testing my quarterly and annual pivots at $58.87 and $59.87. This week's risky level is $61.76. 

 

Kohl's (KSS) ($51.58 vs. $48.90 a week ago): Beat EPS estimates by nine cents earning 66 cents a share. The stock gapped higher to a new 2013 high at $52.94 on May 16. Before reporting, the stock was above my annual pivot at $49.19 with a semiannual risky level is $53.86.

 

Macy's (M) ($48.67 vs. $47.23 a week ago): Beat EPS estimates by two cents earning 55 cents a share on May 15. The stock popped to a new multi-year high at $48.93 on May 15. My quarterly pivot at $47.33 was a key value level as last week began.

 

Wal-Mart (WMT) ($77.87 vs. $78.89 last week): Missed EPS estimates by a penny earning $1.14 on May 16 and offered cautious comments. The stock was trading at a multi-year high at $79.96 before the earnings release and traded as low as $77.34 in reaction to on May 16. My monthly risky level is $74.08 with a quarterly pivot at $78.49 and weekly risky level at $81.50.

 

Here are the profiles for the front nine of this week's retail-wholesale earnings:

 

chart

  

Reading the Table

OV/UN Valued: Stocks with a red number are undervalued by this percentage. Those with a black number are overvalued by that percentage according to ValuEngine.

 

VE Rating: A "1-engine" rating is a strong sell, a "2-engine" rating is a sell, a "3-engine" rating is a hold, a "4-engine" rating is a buy and a "5-engine" rating is a strong buy.

 

Last 12-Month Return (%): Stocks with a red number declined by that percentage over the last 12 months. Stocks with a black number increased by that percentage.

 

Forecast 1-Year Return: Stocks with a red number are projected to decline by that percentage over the next 12 months. Stocks with a black number in the table are projected to move higher by that percentage over the next 12 months.

 

Value Level: Price at which to enter a GTC limit order to buy on weakness. The letters mean; W-weekly, M-monthly, Q-quarterly, S-semiannual and A-annual.

 

Pivot: A level between a value level and risky level that should be a magnet during the time frame noted.

 

Risky Level: Price at which to enter a GTC limit order to sell on strength. 

 

Two companies report quarterly results on Monday:

 

Urban Outfitters (URBN) ($44.54): Set a multi-year high at $44.82 on May 15. The weekly chart profile is positive with the five-week modified moving average at $41.92. My monthly value level is $41.42 with a weekly pivot at $44.62 and annual risky level at $46.41.

 

Tech Data (TECD) ($48.73): Traded up to $54.60 on Feb. 20 then down to $43.02 on April 19. The weekly chart stays positive given a weekly close above the five-week MMA at $47.32. My weekly value level is $46.78 with a quarterly risky level at $51.80.

 

Four companies reporting quarterly results pre-market on Tuesday:

 

Autozone (AZO) ($411.29): Set a multi-year high at $423.46 on May 10. The weekly chart profile is positive but overbought with the five-week MMA at $402.27. My monthly value level is $404.51 with a semiannual pivot at $409.61 and quarterly risky level at $436.58.

 

Home Depot (HD) ($76.86): Set a multi-year high at $78.54 on May 16. The weekly chart remains positive but overbought given a close this weekly above the five-week MMA at $73.41. My quarterly value level is $68.76 with a monthly pivot at $76.71 and weekly risky level at $78.11.

 

Saks (SKS) ($11.85): Has been moving sideways between $10.78 and $12.16 since April 12. A month ago the Saks store in Tampa Bay, Fla., was closed abruptly to be replaced by a Dick's Sporting Goods store. The weekly chart profile is positive given a close this week above the five-week MMA at $11.65. My monthly value level is $10.11 with a weekly pivot at $11.69 and semiannual risky level at $13.81.

 

TJX Stores (TJX) ($51.33): Set a multi-year high at $51.84 on May 15. The weekly chart remains positive but overbought given a close this week above the five-week MMA at $48.75. My semiannual value level is $48.10 with a weekly pivot at $51.39 and annual risky level at $52.67. 

 

Three companies reporting quarterly results pre-market on Wednesday:

 

American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) ($20.05): Set a 2013 trading range between $22.63 on March 5 and $18.04 on March 27. The weekly chart profile stays positive with a close this week above the five-week MMA at $19.52. My monthly quarterly value level is $18.70 with a weekly pivot at $19.84 and semiannual risky level at $23.16.

 

Lowes (LOW) ($42.67): Set a multi-year high at $43.55 on May 16. The weekly chart remains positive given a weekly close above the five-week MMA at $39.86. My weekly value level is $41.74 with a monthly risky level at $43.82. 

 

Target (TGT) ($71.06): Set a multi-year high at $71.24 on May 17. The weekly chart profile is positive but overbought with the five-week MMA at $69.18. My monthly value level is $65.35 with a semiannual pivot at $70.31 and weekly risky level at $71.29.

 

At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

 

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