Don't write off the US just yet
The economy is stronger than last week's employment numbers indicate.
But we aren't weak. And I think that's really important.
We aren't weak, because we have data that are just too strong for me to write us off on punk employment numbers.
No, I am never going to write off the employment numbers as unimportant. Nothing is more important than employment. Nothing. We get jobs created, we get a boom.
But I also have to point out that the parts of this economy that are touched by jobs are better than the jobs numbers.
Theoretically, you should not be able to sell 14 million cars, for example, if we are going into a recession. That's way too high. Lots of companies go into making and selling cars, so I think we have to recognize that if you didn't know any better, we would be creating hundreds of thousands of jobs.
Or housing. Without a doubt, housing is not a growth engine. But it is also on the cusp of mattering as inventory is worked off. There's a perception that banks are still sitting on a huge number of homes. Maybe, but they are homes that are not desirable because the homebuilders are building homes they would not be building if they were worried about banks releasing inventory.
I think housing is finally on the mend. You would not be getting that if employment were being crushed.
We are on the verge of getting some new retail sales numbers, and while I know much retail selling has been pulled forward, we would not even be able to get any sales, let alone sales pulled forward, if we were truly already slipping into a recession.
It is true that government spending is lower, so government hirings are moving down, not up. We are seeing a decline in the manufacturing economy related to the slowdown in drilling, which matters because drilling and drilling-related activity had been the principal job generator in this country in the past few years. The low in natural gas and plummeting oil prices are worrisome for this new growth business, and if prices don't stabilize that, jobs will continue to disappear.
But that's not enough to offset the good.
No, I am not saying the economy is robust. I am saying that I think we are more robust than the employment numbers indicate. That's a dicey thing to say, but I think the employment number has created too much of a wave to the negative, and I believe we will get a re-evaluation if we just get anything good out of Europe.
Just pointing out that we have to temper the negativity until we see more data, because there is too much good data for me to think that we are anywhere near a recession. That's important, given that in 2011, when we were down and out, a recession seemed to be much more in the cards.
I'm not denying that things are worse globally. Brazil, India and China are all worse, and that matters more than the U.S. I'm just reiterating that if you can find stocks with domestic security, I still believe you will make money.
Jim Cramer is a co-founder of TheStreet and contributes daily market commentary to the financial news network's sites. Follow his trades for Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust.
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keep selling dreams-
the u s a is finished- do you know what it takes to return to a aaa rating- we can not borrow
squat and can't pay back doddle
for your info- a country that can not borrow - is broke with the rest of your euro zoners
i am glad you took the quit claiming bait- jims charitable trust full of stolen items
It's pretty obvious that the second definition applies here. Notably, the Dow is now UP over 200 points on "hopes" that another pump will refill the air in Europe's former economic (now dead) cat. There are two weaknesses in play today... first, there are so many holes in Europe's economy that it has become unrecognizable. Second... where on Earth did WE get the billions to artificially lift the Dow but not recover jobs, stabilize housing or bolster sorely needed revenue generation?
Seems like the biggest WEAKNESS is believing anyone in the Financial Sector has a clue or any ethics at all.
this morning cramer bashed the europeans as knowing nothing...........
however they speak english better than cramer and they don't sell fraudulent advice to naive
investors................BEWARE THE CARNY HACK AND HIS "RIGOR" although he is pretty rigorous selling his shatty newsletter
Actually the numbers are dismal - 150 Million Cars - Avg Life span 5 years - we should be selling 30 Million new cars per year!
Housing is not on the mend - by any measure!
The Banks are still in trouble
We owe 15 Trillion Dollars
and the EU is on the Verge of Collapse.
Sorry, take off the rose colored glasses!
we are not weak but the trend over the past 2 decades of allowing manufacturing to head off shore and continue spells a horrible future for USA.
add 10 years to today, WHY would you feel this trend will STOP?
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