Don't write off the US just yet

The economy is stronger than last week's employment numbers indicate.

By Jim Cramer Jun 6, 2012 9:08AM

The economy is definitely decelerating. We see lots of reports that show weakness.

 

But we aren't weak. And I think that's really important.

 

We aren't weak, because we have data that are just too strong for me to write us off on punk employment numbers.

 

No, I am never going to write off the employment numbers as unimportant. Nothing is more important than employment. Nothing. We get jobs created, we get a boom.

 

But I also have to point out that the parts of this economy that are touched by jobs are better than the jobs numbers.

 

Theoretically, you should not be able to sell 14 million cars, for example, if we are going into a recession. That's way too high. Lots of companies go into making and selling cars, so I think we have to recognize that if you didn't know any better, we would be creating hundreds of thousands of jobs.

 

Or housing. Without a doubt, housing is not a growth engine. But it is also on the cusp of mattering as inventory is worked off. There's a perception that banks are still sitting on a huge number of homes. Maybe, but they are homes that are not desirable because the homebuilders are building homes they would not be building if they were worried about banks releasing inventory.

 

I think housing is finally on the mend. You would not be getting that if employment were being crushed.

 

We are on the verge of getting some new retail sales numbers, and while I know much retail selling has been pulled forward, we would not even be able to get any sales, let alone sales pulled forward, if we were truly already slipping into a recession.

 

It is true that government spending is lower, so government hirings are moving down, not up. We are seeing a decline in the manufacturing economy related to the slowdown in drilling, which matters because drilling and drilling-related activity had been the principal job generator in this country in the past few years. The low in natural gas and plummeting oil prices are worrisome for this new growth business, and if prices don't stabilize that, jobs will continue to disappear.

 

But that's not enough to offset the good.

 

No, I am not saying the economy is robust. I am saying that I think we are more robust than the employment numbers indicate. That's a dicey thing to say, but I think the employment number has created too much of a wave to the negative, and I believe we will get a re-evaluation if we just get anything good out of Europe.

 

Just pointing out that we have to temper the negativity until we see more data, because there is too much good data for me to think that we are anywhere near a recession. That's important, given that in 2011, when we were down and out, a recession seemed to be much more in the cards.

 

I'm not denying that things are worse globally. Brazil, India and China are all worse, and that matters more than the U.S. I'm just reiterating that if you can find stocks with domestic security, I still believe you will make money.

 

 

 

Jim Cramer is a co-founder of TheStreet and contributes daily market commentary to the financial news network's sites. Follow his trades for Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust.

 

 

 

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118Comments
Jun 6, 2012 12:00PM
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  Do people really dump their money into the stock market based on hope or is this rally just more algorithmic large scale automated trading from the major banks and financial institutions?   Tell us great Bobo. Inquiring minds want to know.
Jun 6, 2012 11:56AM
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Eurozone my  butt  they are waiting for bernaka  to come out and sell the dollar down the drain and  he  will  why is this  man so determined to sell the dollar  down the  tubes GREED   comes before  humans  oil was going down people actually  had 10.00 left at the end of the  week  don't let that happen. time we look  out for ourselves and let the rest of them  pull there own  weight belive it or not people will survive big  money don't want to admit it
Jun 6, 2012 11:51AM
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keep selling dreams-

the u s a is finished- do you know what it takes to return to a aaa rating- we can not borrow

 squat and can't pay back doddle

for your info- a country that can not borrow - is broke with the rest of your euro zoners

i am glad you took the quit claiming bait- jims charitable trust full of stolen items

read me-nyse

Jun 6, 2012 11:48AM
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wow Dow up 200+ on hope of eurozone fix?   I Think I will go buy a new car on hopes I get a raise.
Jun 6, 2012 11:46AM
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Weakness. There are two types. the first is- wimpy, as in a weakling. The second is- flawed, as in there is a gaping hole in the economy that used to be filled with former jobs, incomes and a work force that produced and purchased.
It's pretty obvious that the second definition applies here. Notably, the Dow is now UP over 200 points on "hopes" that another pump will refill the air in Europe's former economic (now dead) cat. There are two weaknesses in play today... first, there are so many holes in Europe's economy that it has become unrecognizable. Second... where on Earth did WE get the billions to artificially lift the Dow but not recover jobs, stabilize housing or bolster sorely needed revenue generation?
Seems like the biggest WEAKNESS is believing anyone in the Financial Sector has a clue or any ethics at all.

Jun 6, 2012 11:17AM
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this morning cramer bashed the europeans as knowing nothing...........

however they speak english better than cramer and they don't sell fraudulent advice to naive

investors................BEWARE THE CARNY HACK AND HIS "RIGOR"  although he is pretty rigorous selling his shatty newsletter

 

Jun 6, 2012 10:54AM
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Let's pull that $5 trillion of deficit borrowed cash out of the economy and see how this airplane flies.  It doesn't.  Until the U.S. gets realistic about its regulations, deficit spending and the China currency manipulation, it's all a joke.  The ground is coming towards us way faster than it appears to.
Jun 6, 2012 10:53AM
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How many times since the Great recession, has there been speculation that another recession was just about underway?  At few times at least and another one never occurred.   Of course there are many middle class American's which still believe the great recession never ended.  However, there is growing support for Obama that implies more people have confidence the economy is getting better.  What does this all mean, just like Cramer, we all must play it one day at a time. 
Jun 6, 2012 10:41AM
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Actually the numbers are dismal - 150 Million Cars - Avg Life span 5 years - we should be selling 30 Million new cars per year!

 

Housing is not on the mend - by any measure!

 

The Banks are still in trouble

 

We owe 15 Trillion Dollars

and the EU is on the Verge of Collapse.

 

Sorry, take off the rose colored glasses!

Jun 6, 2012 9:48AM
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we are not weak but the trend over the past 2 decades of allowing manufacturing to head off shore and continue spells a horrible future for USA. 

 

add 10 years to today, WHY would you feel this trend will STOP? 

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