Don't write off the US just yet
The economy is stronger than last week's employment numbers indicate.
But we aren't weak. And I think that's really important.
We aren't weak, because we have data that are just too strong for me to write us off on punk employment numbers.
No, I am never going to write off the employment numbers as unimportant. Nothing is more important than employment. Nothing. We get jobs created, we get a boom.
But I also have to point out that the parts of this economy that are touched by jobs are better than the jobs numbers.
Theoretically, you should not be able to sell 14 million cars, for example, if we are going into a recession. That's way too high. Lots of companies go into making and selling cars, so I think we have to recognize that if you didn't know any better, we would be creating hundreds of thousands of jobs.
Or housing. Without a doubt, housing is not a growth engine. But it is also on the cusp of mattering as inventory is worked off. There's a perception that banks are still sitting on a huge number of homes. Maybe, but they are homes that are not desirable because the homebuilders are building homes they would not be building if they were worried about banks releasing inventory.
I think housing is finally on the mend. You would not be getting that if employment were being crushed.
We are on the verge of getting some new retail sales numbers, and while I know much retail selling has been pulled forward, we would not even be able to get any sales, let alone sales pulled forward, if we were truly already slipping into a recession.
It is true that government spending is lower, so government hirings are moving down, not up. We are seeing a decline in the manufacturing economy related to the slowdown in drilling, which matters because drilling and drilling-related activity had been the principal job generator in this country in the past few years. The low in natural gas and plummeting oil prices are worrisome for this new growth business, and if prices don't stabilize that, jobs will continue to disappear.
But that's not enough to offset the good.
No, I am not saying the economy is robust. I am saying that I think we are more robust than the employment numbers indicate. That's a dicey thing to say, but I think the employment number has created too much of a wave to the negative, and I believe we will get a re-evaluation if we just get anything good out of Europe.
Just pointing out that we have to temper the negativity until we see more data, because there is too much good data for me to think that we are anywhere near a recession. That's important, given that in 2011, when we were down and out, a recession seemed to be much more in the cards.
I'm not denying that things are worse globally. Brazil, India and China are all worse, and that matters more than the U.S. I'm just reiterating that if you can find stocks with domestic security, I still believe you will make money.
Jim Cramer is a co-founder of TheStreet and contributes daily market commentary to the financial news network's sites. Follow his trades for Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust.
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we are not weak but the trend over the past 2 decades of allowing manufacturing to head off shore and continue spells a horrible future for USA.
add 10 years to today, WHY would you feel this trend will STOP?
Actually the numbers are dismal - 150 Million Cars - Avg Life span 5 years - we should be selling 30 Million new cars per year!
Housing is not on the mend - by any measure!
The Banks are still in trouble
We owe 15 Trillion Dollars
and the EU is on the Verge of Collapse.
Sorry, take off the rose colored glasses!
This should really tell us something about our country and the American people. The market
can skyrocket on hopes for the Eurozone and plummet on news about our own economy.
Tommorrow the Eurozone may stink again, probably a better than average chance of that and
then what will the "investors" do. I'm betting the market will plummet again.
It time to get American straightened out and make this the place to invest in again.
Everyone does realize that the republicans for the past 3 decades can do no wrong no matter how bad a shape the economy is in during and after the time they are in office.
Bush II's administration made great strides in bankrupting both the public and private sectors
and yet republicans are blaming Obama, Clinton, and the time in those 8 years that the
democrats condrolled congress for all these econmic ills. They convieniently forget that
Buss II had the ultimate weapon against all of this, the veto pen.
IMO both sides of the aisle have to share the blame equally over the past 30 years. My theory is
that it is politics and politicans that have caused the problem, and both sides share equally
in the blame for that.
Talk is cheap and that's all we get about the Euro- mess. So what, "Good" news is pushing the market up and is going to keep it there? Bernanke going to print more money? It's free now, but I never get any. All I can see, fast approaching is profit taking, when we get more news on Europe tomorrow and inflation from all this free money.
Does everyone else feel as manipulated as I do?
It's pretty obvious that the second definition applies here. Notably, the Dow is now UP over 200 points on "hopes" that another pump will refill the air in Europe's former economic (now dead) cat. There are two weaknesses in play today... first, there are so many holes in Europe's economy that it has become unrecognizable. Second... where on Earth did WE get the billions to artificially lift the Dow but not recover jobs, stabilize housing or bolster sorely needed revenue generation?
Seems like the biggest WEAKNESS is believing anyone in the Financial Sector has a clue or any ethics at all.
Socialist 1 says.
the market has gone from 6500 to 13000 under obama and he had nothing to do with it.
It was really the Bush-Chaney secret agenda to wait until they were out of office to have
it go up.
But it was Obama's fault that we lost 6 million jobs in the 5 months before and the 5 months
after he took office.
Ac;cording to any republican no democrat can do anything right. But it seems that
the feeling is mutual for the democrats. Thats why this country is in the shape its
in. Its nobodys fault, and it everybodys fault. That politics in a nutshell.
Bet you couldn't get those 15 million or so unemployed and no telling how many more
underemployed people to agree with that. I guess that is OK though because they
can't afford to invest in the market or help to get one of the current crop of politicans
elected so they can get things fixed. That is a joke you know. Politicans getting things
fixed. It seems that they can only break them.
IMO, the economy is not stronger than last weeks employment numbers indicate, it
Does anyone take this blowhard seriously? Really?
Who in their right mind has written the US off in the first place, Clown Boy Jimmy?
Fact: More and more manufacturers are bringing jobs back to the US as shipping and labor costs spiral out of control overseas.
Fact: The US is poised to become the low-cost energy supplier to the world if the greenies don't shut down fracking.
Fact: The Euro-creeps are toast, the Chinese are about to have their own real-estate bust, and the Japanese are still reeling from the tsunami. Who else will be our competition? The Russians? Anybody in rat-hole central or south America? Make me laugh harder.
But then what do I know? I'm only someone who actually owns a manufacturing business, not a vapid talking clown-head.
Do us all a favor, Cramer, and put a sock in it. Idiot.
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