Don't write off the US just yet

The economy is stronger than last week's employment numbers indicate.

By Jim Cramer Jun 6, 2012 9:08AM

The economy is definitely decelerating. We see lots of reports that show weakness.

 

But we aren't weak. And I think that's really important.

 

We aren't weak, because we have data that are just too strong for me to write us off on punk employment numbers.

 

No, I am never going to write off the employment numbers as unimportant. Nothing is more important than employment. Nothing. We get jobs created, we get a boom.

 

But I also have to point out that the parts of this economy that are touched by jobs are better than the jobs numbers.

 

Theoretically, you should not be able to sell 14 million cars, for example, if we are going into a recession. That's way too high. Lots of companies go into making and selling cars, so I think we have to recognize that if you didn't know any better, we would be creating hundreds of thousands of jobs.

 

Or housing. Without a doubt, housing is not a growth engine. But it is also on the cusp of mattering as inventory is worked off. There's a perception that banks are still sitting on a huge number of homes. Maybe, but they are homes that are not desirable because the homebuilders are building homes they would not be building if they were worried about banks releasing inventory.

 

I think housing is finally on the mend. You would not be getting that if employment were being crushed.

 

We are on the verge of getting some new retail sales numbers, and while I know much retail selling has been pulled forward, we would not even be able to get any sales, let alone sales pulled forward, if we were truly already slipping into a recession.

 

It is true that government spending is lower, so government hirings are moving down, not up. We are seeing a decline in the manufacturing economy related to the slowdown in drilling, which matters because drilling and drilling-related activity had been the principal job generator in this country in the past few years. The low in natural gas and plummeting oil prices are worrisome for this new growth business, and if prices don't stabilize that, jobs will continue to disappear.

 

But that's not enough to offset the good.

 

No, I am not saying the economy is robust. I am saying that I think we are more robust than the employment numbers indicate. That's a dicey thing to say, but I think the employment number has created too much of a wave to the negative, and I believe we will get a re-evaluation if we just get anything good out of Europe.

 

Just pointing out that we have to temper the negativity until we see more data, because there is too much good data for me to think that we are anywhere near a recession. That's important, given that in 2011, when we were down and out, a recession seemed to be much more in the cards.

 

I'm not denying that things are worse globally. Brazil, India and China are all worse, and that matters more than the U.S. I'm just reiterating that if you can find stocks with domestic security, I still believe you will make money.

 

 

 

Jim Cramer is a co-founder of TheStreet and contributes daily market commentary to the financial news network's sites. Follow his trades for Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust.

 

 

 

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116Comments
Jun 6, 2012 9:48AM
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we are not weak but the trend over the past 2 decades of allowing manufacturing to head off shore and continue spells a horrible future for USA. 

 

add 10 years to today, WHY would you feel this trend will STOP? 

Jun 6, 2012 10:41AM
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Actually the numbers are dismal - 150 Million Cars - Avg Life span 5 years - we should be selling 30 Million new cars per year!

 

Housing is not on the mend - by any measure!

 

The Banks are still in trouble

 

We owe 15 Trillion Dollars

and the EU is on the Verge of Collapse.

 

Sorry, take off the rose colored glasses!

Jun 6, 2012 12:44PM
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more manipulation by wall street. Stock market jumping up for no good reason.
Jun 6, 2012 12:42PM
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This should really tell us something about our country and the American people.  The market

can skyrocket on hopes for the Eurozone and plummet on news about our own economy.

 

Tommorrow the Eurozone may stink again, probably a better than average chance of that and

then what will the "investors" do.  I'm betting the market will plummet again.

 

It time to get American straightened out and make this the place to invest in again.

Jun 6, 2012 4:20PM
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Everyone does realize that the republicans for the past 3 decades can do no wrong no matter how bad a shape the economy is in during and after the time they are in office. 

 

Bush II's administration made great strides in bankrupting both the public and private sectors

and yet republicans are blaming Obama, Clinton, and the time in those 8 years that the

democrats condrolled congress for all these econmic ills.  They convieniently forget that

Buss II had the ultimate weapon against all of this, the veto pen.

 

IMO both sides of the aisle have to share the blame equally over the past 30 years.  My theory is

that it is politics and politicans that have caused the problem, and both sides share equally

in the blame for that.

Jun 6, 2012 12:46PM
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Talk is cheap and that's all we get about the Euro- mess. So what, "Good" news is pushing the market up and is going to keep it there? Bernanke going to print more money? It's free now, but I never get any. All I can see, fast approaching is profit taking, when we get more news on Europe tomorrow and inflation from all this free money.

 

Does everyone else feel as manipulated as I do?

Jun 6, 2012 11:46AM
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Weakness. There are two types. the first is- wimpy, as in a weakling. The second is- flawed, as in there is a gaping hole in the economy that used to be filled with former jobs, incomes and a work force that produced and purchased.
It's pretty obvious that the second definition applies here. Notably, the Dow is now UP over 200 points on "hopes" that another pump will refill the air in Europe's former economic (now dead) cat. There are two weaknesses in play today... first, there are so many holes in Europe's economy that it has become unrecognizable. Second... where on Earth did WE get the billions to artificially lift the Dow but not recover jobs, stabilize housing or bolster sorely needed revenue generation?
Seems like the biggest WEAKNESS is believing anyone in the Financial Sector has a clue or any ethics at all.

Jun 6, 2012 11:48AM
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wow Dow up 200+ on hope of eurozone fix?   I Think I will go buy a new car on hopes I get a raise.
Jun 6, 2012 12:35PM
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Really,stocks jump over night? Europes problems solved over night? wow!
Jun 6, 2012 1:07PM
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The question we need to address in this country is this: Are we a nation of individuals or a nation of people?
Jun 6, 2012 12:49PM
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Don't write America off just yet...we still need people to continue to invest so we can steal the little bit of money they have left!!!
Jun 6, 2012 10:54AM
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Let's pull that $5 trillion of deficit borrowed cash out of the economy and see how this airplane flies.  It doesn't.  Until the U.S. gets realistic about its regulations, deficit spending and the China currency manipulation, it's all a joke.  The ground is coming towards us way faster than it appears to.
Jun 6, 2012 1:27PM
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So what employment numbers should we believe?  The Bureau of Labor and Statistics has refused to publish the total employment numbers for three years.  The best data I have seen is that only 64% of those over the age of 16 are employed.  (58% in California)  Social Security claims to have 15% of that group. That leaves 21% unemployed.  Twice the number reported by the government.  And no data on the number that are only doing part time work or under employed.
Jun 6, 2012 2:27PM
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 Cramer, Cramer, Cramer. I thought you where a all right guy but it seems as you have joined the smoke blowers of America. Anybody on the left with a  job would maybe believe you but us 25 million that don't just hear  lip service. You said something about the auto sales I'll bet money that if you looked to see who was buying all those car's & trucks you would find Uncle Sam updating the US Government motor Pool.DUH !! Can't con us with bad auto sales so look at all the cars being bought LOL. I would say they have some kind of back room deal with the big 2  to grease their palms for the bailout. ONLY IN AMERICA . We as tax payers are told nothing & it should be Open for anyone who cares to see if the facts are honest. Just because we are long term unemployed don't make us STUPID. All of you TALKING HEADS are paid to blow smoke up our a$$es & you think you can wish it better. I hate to say this again but STICK A FORK IN US BECAUSE WE ARE DONE !!. Remember the Wizard Of Oz , One wanted a brain ,One a heart , & one courage. Here I am in the Wizard of ODD'S  &  Damn Jim all I want is a JOB !!! Oh Yea a shout out for a job well done  Scott Walker !! won't be long & we can get rid of alot more leaches sucking on the tax payer's dime. They have dummied us down to a point where our children are almost STUPID & will fall for anything. I can see our children giving up their arms without a fight. Sad but true. The tax payer helped Wall Street when they should have went to prison but they still make Billions & do nothing to help AMERICA. I say we open season on then with no bag limit
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People blame the Demarcates or the Republicans for the mess this country is in, but no blames the corporations for shipping jobs over seas to low wage enterprise zones from Mexico to China.  The fortune 500 has plants and factories all over the world; this includes Chrysler the all "American" auto company.  It is to be remembered that when Ronald Reagan was in office and pushing NAFTA, he said that the American workers were making to much money and that we had to be competitive on the global scale and face the new reality..  We are living in the era of the Global Economy, and what effects one; effects all around the world.  The Republicans want ti back to the pristine era of the 1910 when there were no unions, eight hour day, minimum wage, child labor laws, and the dreaded EPA.  Yes.  The American Working class is the most productive of all members of the global working class, but it is, also, the place that gave birth to the Union movement,  the Civil Rights Movement, the Women's liberation movement and other social movement for equality.  Adam Smith said, "the wealth of nations is created by human labor.  Human labor rests in the hands of the working class.  
Jun 6, 2012 3:10PM
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Socialist 1 says.

 

the market has gone from 6500 to 13000 under obama and he had nothing to do with it.

 

It was really the Bush-Chaney secret agenda to wait until they were out of office to have

it go up. 

 

But it was Obama's fault that we lost 6 million jobs in the 5 months before and the 5 months

after he took office. 

 

Ac;cording to any republican no democrat can do anything right.  But it seems that

the feeling is mutual for the democrats.  Thats why this country is in the shape its

in.  Its nobodys fault, and it everybodys fault.  That politics in a nutshell.

Jun 6, 2012 1:53PM
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The economy is stronger than last week's employment numbers indicate.

 

Bet you couldn't get those 15 million or so unemployed and no telling how many more

underemployed people to agree with that.  I guess that is OK though because they

can't afford to invest in the market or help to get one of the current crop of politicans

elected so they can get things fixed.  That is a joke you know.  Politicans getting things

fixed.  It seems that they can only break them.

 

IMO, the economy is not stronger than last weeks employment numbers indicate, it

is weaker. 

Jun 6, 2012 3:00PM
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I have no idea how a fool like Jim Cramer can even look at himself in the mirror.  He looks, sounds, and acts like a clown.  The only thing he's missing is the red nose and the comically oversized shoes.

Does anyone take this blowhard seriously?  Really?

Who in their right mind has written the US off in the first place, Clown Boy Jimmy?

Fact: More and more manufacturers are bringing jobs back to the US as shipping and labor costs spiral out of control overseas.

Fact: The US is poised to become the low-cost energy supplier to the world if the greenies don't shut down fracking.

Fact: The Euro-creeps are toast, the Chinese are about to have their own real-estate bust, and the Japanese are still reeling from the tsunami.  Who else will be our competition?  The Russians?  Anybody in rat-hole central or south America?  Make me laugh harder.

But then what do I know?  I'm only someone who actually owns a manufacturing business, not a vapid talking clown-head.

Do us all a favor, Cramer, and put a sock in it.  Idiot.

Jun 6, 2012 5:46PM
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We don't have "disposable income" anymore therefore there is no demand for goods and services because we can't afford to buy anything, so companies scale back.  If they aren't booming in business, they won't be hiring either.   Quit making middle and lower income people pay some damned much in taxes and maybe we can afford to start buying things again and business in turn can start booming and hiring again.
Jun 6, 2012 12:53PM
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Europe is having more meetings.  They love having meetings.

 

 

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