Does losing AAA credit mean much to European ETFs?

Last Friday, the UK became the latest country to lose the prestigious AAA credit rating when Moody's Investors Service downgraded it to Aa1, citing sluggish economic growth and a growing debut burden.

By Benzinga Feb 25, 2013 6:45PM
By The ETF Professor


The U.K., the world's sixth-largest economy according to the CIA World Factbook, is not alone in having lost its AAA rating. Recent departures include Austria and France as well as the U.S. in 2011. Do not bet on any of those countries, or any of the others that have lost the perfect rating, to get it back anytime soon.


Canada lost its AAA rating from Standard & Poor's in 1992 and could not get it back until 2002, The Independent reported. The paper also notes that Australia lost its AAA rating in 1986 and did not get it back until 2003.


While one issue may have nothing to do with the other, as developed world government balance sheets have deteriorated, the ETF industry has grown. That means there are plenty of country ETFs with which to measure the impact of the loss of a AAA credit rating. And investors in the iShares MSCI U.K. Index Fund (EWU) will want to have a look at the following.


Note this list looks at the performance of select Europe ETFs following the first loss of the AAA rating. For example, if Moody's downgraded the country in January, but Standard & Poor's followed in April, this list measures the performance of the ETF from the first downgrade.


iShares MSCI France Index Fund (EWQ) S&P stripped France of the AAA rating in January 2012 while Moody's chimed in on the Eurozone's second-largest economy in November of that year.


EWQ, the lone France ETF, gained almost 10% in the month following the S&P downgrade, but three months later that ETF was barely in the green. Six months following the S&P downgrade, EWQ had lost 3.73 percent. On the bright side, EWQ has jumped 6.3% in the past year.


iShares MSCI Austria Capped Investable Market Index Fund (EWO) S&P took Australia's AAA rating at the same time it took the stellar rating from France.


However, the immediate performance of the iShares MSCI Austria Capped Investable Market Index Fund might deceive some investors into thinking the headlines did not matter. 


About 11 weeks following the news, EWO had surged nearly 19%.


The gains quickly wilted, though. A month later, EWO's post-downgrade gain was just 10.8%. And six months removed from the loss of the AAA rating, EWO was trading where it was pre-downgrade. To be fair, EWO, like EWQ, trades at much higher prices today than where it did before and in the months immediately following the loss of AAA credit.


iShares MSCI Spain Capped Index Fund (EWP) The performance of the iShares MSCI Capped Index Fund, in the wake of Spain no longer being an AAA nation, is arguably a case of good and bad timing. S&P made the call in early 2009, at the height of the global financial crisis. However the ETF was then positioned to take advantage of the March 2009 market bottom.


To that end, EWP was up more than 13% 90 days after the downgrade. Six months later, the ETF was up nearly 40%. Proving that all good things must come to an end, Spain's problems proved too much for EWP to handle over the past couple of years and EWP is now found residing at almost exactly the same price as where it traded a day after Spain ceased being an AAA country.


More from Benzinga
1Comment
Feb 25, 2013 6:59PM
avatar

lets just keep raising gas prices ,they need to drain us for evertthing we have seems they all want to suck us dry one of these days i hope they have to drink that crap to survive

 

 

Report
Please help us to maintain a healthy and vibrant community by reporting any illegal or inappropriate behavior. If you believe a message violates theCode of Conductplease use this form to notify the moderators. They will investigate your report and take appropriate action. If necessary, they report all illegal activity to the proper authorities.
Categories
100 character limit
Are you sure you want to delete this comment?

DATA PROVIDERS

Copyright © 2013 Microsoft. All rights reserved.

Quotes are real-time for NASDAQ, NYSE and AMEX. See delay times for other exchanges.

Fundamental company data and historical chart data provided by Thomson Reuters (click for restrictions). Real-time quotes provided by BATS Exchange. Real-time index quotes and delayed quotes supplied by Interactive Data Real-Time Services. Fund summary, fund performance and dividend data provided by Morningstar Inc. Analyst recommendations provided by Zacks Investment Research. StockScouter data provided by Verus Analytics. IPO data provided by Hoover's Inc. Index membership data provided by SIX Financial Information.

Japanese stock price data provided by Nomura Research Institute Ltd.; quotes delayed 20 minutes. Canadian fund data provided by CANNEX Financial Exchanges Ltd.

STOCK SCOUTER

StockScouter rates stocks from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best, using a system of advanced mathematics to determine a stock's expected risk and return. Ratings are displayed on a bell curve, meaning there will be fewer ratings of 1 and 10 and far more of 4 through 7.

141
141 rated 1
295
295 rated 2
452
452 rated 3
619
619 rated 4
639
639 rated 5
639
639 rated 6
678
678 rated 7
484
484 rated 8
311
311 rated 9
131
131 rated 10
12345678910

Top Picks

SYMBOLNAMERATING
BRCDBrocade Communications Systems9
DNRDenbury Resources Inc9
GTThe Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company9
NRGNRG Energy Inc9
STEIStewart Enterprises9
More
Fidelity Brokerage Services, Member NYSE, SIPC. (c) 2011 FMR LLC. All rights reserved

VIDEO ON MSN MONEY

ABOUT

Top Stocks provides analysis about the most noteworthy stocks in the market each day, combining some of the best content from around the MSN Money site and the rest of the Web.

Contributors include professional investors and journalists affiliated with MSN Money.

Follow us on Twitter @topstocksmsn.