Shoot-first approach isn't working
It was a bad call to expect a rollback in all housing stocks based only on KB Home's awful earnings report last week.
Maybe we have to stop taking our cue from the worst of breed and start taking it from the best of breed.
Last week we got a report from KB Home (KBH) that was an unmitigated disaster and spelled what looked to be the end of the housing rally. Given that so much depends on housing coming back, the KB Home debacle portended a rollback of the whole complex, everything from Stanley Works Black and Decker (SWK) and Home Depot (HD) to Whirlpool (WHR) and USG (USG).
Oops. Real bad call. Because it turns out that the fault was not in the home stars but in KB itself. In fact, the chief home star, Lennar (LEN), really blew things away Monday, and it is back to being game on, with the whole group rising with the prospects of increasing orders, improving gross margins, declines in cancellations and the hope that we are getting back on track in the home biz.
Of course, we probably could have bottomed in homes a few years ago if Congress hadn't seen fit to give a big handout to everyone who bought a new home, which only encouraged an increase in inventory. That's exactly what we didn't want, as my friend and colleague Matt Horween has articulated many times.
It created an unfathomable number of new homes and, when coupled with a huge tax boondoggle for the companies, kept all of the publicly traded homebuilders afloat. I have no desire for any company to go under, but marginal players like Hovnanian (HOV) did the market no favors by continuing to pump out houses long after they were needed simply because it had the capital to do so.
Related Articles
Now it looks like the inventories are getting leaner. Yes, we had horrendous Case-Schiller numbers Monday, but they are about three months old. They showed a rather remarkable turn in the hardest-hit areas, notably Miami and Phoenix. But you can see the home inventories pouring out of the banks when you look at the horrible numbers from Atlanta and Chicago, to name two newly hard-hit areas.
Nonetheless, what happened with Lennar is a reminder that when people shoot first in this business in 2012 and then ask questions later, they are not being rewarded. Those who buy the shootings have been the winners, because the shootings don't seem to be caused by anything negative. They are minor chords. But the major chords come from the best-of-breed plays, and they are singing in unison whether from Home Depot or Macy's (M) or Chipotle (CMG) and Panera (PNRA).
Keep the KB Homes-Lennar bipolarity in mind when you want to take action. You just might want to be on the other side of the trade.
Jim Cramer is a co-founder of TheStreet and contributes daily market commentary to the financial news network's sites. Follow his trades for his charitable, Action Alerts PLUS.
socialist 1,
Cramer provides info. on environment changes effect on companies' earning. Also, he notes commodity and corresponding stock divergence. 'Cause of SLB and EOG's lower exposure to Nat. Gas, Cramer's recently recommended these "best of breed" companies over Chesapeake. SLB's yesterday "lower earnings due to lower fraking rates" announcement sounds like Cramer's typical earnings "under promise" "over deliver" tactic. With crude stubbornly over $100, you should have been "scale buying" SLB and EOG "on the way down".
MORE ON MSN MONEY
DATA PROVIDERS
Copyright © 2013 Microsoft. All rights reserved.
Quotes are real-time for NASDAQ, NYSE and AMEX. See delay times for other exchanges.
Fundamental company data and historical chart data provided by Thomson Reuters (click for restrictions). Real-time quotes provided by BATS Exchange. Real-time index quotes and delayed quotes supplied by Interactive Data Real-Time Services. Fund summary, fund performance and dividend data provided by Morningstar Inc. Analyst recommendations provided by Zacks Investment Research. StockScouter data provided by Verus Analytics. IPO data provided by Hoover's Inc. Index membership data provided by SIX Financial Information.
Japanese stock price data provided by Nomura Research Institute Ltd.; quotes delayed 20 minutes. Canadian fund data provided by CANNEX Financial Exchanges Ltd.
LATEST POSTS
Here's a list of ways to profit from the potential move from defensive to cyclical stocks.
FIDELITY VIEWPOINTS
- How to sell covered calls - Fidelity Investments
- Savvy year-end tax moves to consider now - Fidelity Investments
- Seven ways to prepare for tax changes
- Five reasons an annual review is crucial - Fidelity Investments
- Take a look at mid caps now - Fidelity Investments
- State of the sector: Health care - Fidelity Investments
VIDEO ON MSN MONEY
ABOUT
Top Stocks provides analysis about the most noteworthy stocks in the market each day, combining some of the best content from around the MSN Money site and the rest of the Web.
Contributors include professional investors and journalists affiliated with MSN Money.
Follow us on Twitter @topstocksmsn.


