Shoot-first approach isn't working

It was a bad call to expect a rollback in all housing stocks based only on KB Home's awful earnings report last week.

By Jim Cramer Mar 28, 2012 11:39AM

Maybe we have to stop taking our cue from the worst of breed and start taking it from the best of breed.

 

Last week we got a report from KB Home (KBH) that was an unmitigated disaster and spelled what looked to be the end of the housing rally. Given that so much depends on housing coming back, the KB Home debacle portended a rollback of the whole complex, everything from Stanley Works Black and Decker (SWK) and Home Depot (HD) to Whirlpool (WHR) and USG (USG).

 

Oops. Real bad call. Because it turns out that the fault was not in the home stars but in KB itself. In fact, the chief home star, Lennar (LEN), really blew things away Monday, and it is back to being game on, with the whole group rising with the prospects of increasing orders, improving gross margins, declines in cancellations and the hope that we are getting back on track in the home biz.

 

Of course, we probably could have bottomed in homes a few years ago if Congress hadn't seen fit to give a big handout to everyone who bought a new home, which only encouraged an increase in inventory. That's exactly what we didn't want, as my friend and colleague Matt Horween has articulated many times. 


It created an unfathomable number of new homes and, when coupled with a huge tax boondoggle for the companies, kept all of the publicly traded homebuilders afloat. I have no desire for any company to go under, but marginal players like Hovnanian (HOV) did the market no favors by continuing to pump out houses long after they were needed simply because it had the capital to do so.

 

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Now it looks like the inventories are getting leaner. Yes, we had horrendous Case-Schiller numbers Monday, but they are about three months old. They showed a rather remarkable turn in the hardest-hit areas, notably Miami and Phoenix. But you can see the home inventories pouring out of the banks when you look at the horrible numbers from Atlanta and Chicago, to name two newly hard-hit areas.

 

Nonetheless, what happened with Lennar is a reminder that when people shoot first in this business in 2012 and then ask questions later, they are not being rewarded. Those who buy the shootings have been the winners, because the shootings don't seem to be caused by anything negative. They are minor chords. But the major chords come from the best-of-breed plays, and they are singing in unison whether from Home Depot or Macy's (M) or Chipotle (CMG) and Panera (PNRA).

 

Keep the KB Homes-Lennar bipolarity in mind when you want to take action. You just might want to be on the other side of the trade.

 


Jim Cramer is a co-founder of TheStreet and contributes daily market commentary to the financial news network's sites. Follow his trades for his charitable, Action Alerts PLUS.

 

11Comments
Mar 28, 2012 1:36PM
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this guy is the exhibit number one of how grifters work their trade

BEWARE THE SHYSTER

Mar 28, 2012 2:10PM
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Cramer is a nut job.  How he's on television lends credence to the poor quality of broadcasting these days.  Apart from being an institutional investor, Cramer needs to be "institutionalized".
Mar 28, 2012 12:32PM
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best of breed?rigor? homework? how is ANOTHER  of your favorite best of breed chesapeake energy working for your poor followers?
Mar 28, 2012 12:30PM
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yes he is a great business man........while losing tons and selling his crap he is making money

 

just like a used car salesman selling to the uninitiated

Mar 28, 2012 1:08PM
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next he will whine that ETFS are wrecking his rigorous picks
Mar 28, 2012 2:50PM
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THE REVEREND JIM BOB CRAMER FROM THE CHURCH OF WHATEVER WAS UP YESTERDAY

Mar 28, 2012 3:16PM
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remeber in december when this genuis said sell BAC at 5 and buy SLB at 83?

BAC doubled while SLB  is now below 70

rigor?.........best of breed?.............LLLLMMMMFFFFAAAAOOOOO

STOP.......YOU'RE KILLING ME....I CAN'T BREATHE

 

Mar 28, 2012 3:53PM
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Does anyone have a lead rope? We need to put this guy out to pasture!
Mar 28, 2012 3:26PM
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Housing market will not recover until unemployment numbers fall and business activity picks up, and it doesn't help to have so many bank foreclosures sitting idle waiting for a buyer, renter or demolition .. take your pick.  Incentive for homeowner up-grade and energy efficiency improvements (tax credit and/or rebate) would help the construction industry, as well as, make the value equal the selling price.   But that would take an Act of Congress .. and the dysfunctional one we have, can't even get a National Transportation bill passed in the House of Representatives.  Midnight March 31st is the witching hour for the Department of Transportation .. and all the construction and durable goods manufacturing industry.
Mar 28, 2012 4:59PM
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Nope.  All the rope is in Las Vegas.  They use it there to hang crooked lawyers.  My kind of town!

 

 

Mar 28, 2012 5:29PM
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socialist 1,

 

Cramer provides info. on environment changes effect on companies' earning. Also, he notes commodity and corresponding stock divergence. 'Cause of SLB and EOG's  lower exposure to Nat. Gas, Cramer's recently recommended these "best of breed" companies over Chesapeake. SLB's yesterday "lower earnings due to lower fraking rates" announcement sounds like Cramer's typical earnings "under promise" "over deliver" tactic. With crude stubbornly over $100, you should have been "scale buying" SLB and EOG "on the way down".  

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