Joy Global: A 'perfect play' on coal mining
Forget coal mining stocks; buy this global mining equipment maker instead.
Coal still remains a major part of global energy generation, and it likely will remain so for many years to come.
But rather than buy a coal miner, we prefer Joy Global (JOYG); we believe this is the perfect company to take advantage of increased capital expenditure on mining equipment.
More than half of the energy generated in the U.S., and more than 40% of energy generated worldwide, comes from coal.
Joy Global currently operates in 98 locations throughout 17 countries, including the U.S, England, Canada, Australia, Brazil, Chile, Russia, South Africa, India and China, and offers fantastic exposure to a diverse group of industries and currencies.
Nearly 65% of Joy Global's revenues come from coal businesses. Its massive size, global reach, and effective management has allowed the company to gain tremendously from growth brought on by the increased energy demands in the emerging markets.
In the five years through 2010, Joy Global generated an EBITDA compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.2%; and that includes the Great Recession financial data.
The company's balance sheet has kept up with this impressive growth, as total assets grew at a 5-year CAGR of 15.6%, while the company produced an impressive return on invested capital of 26.8%, well above the ROIC of its industry (8.9%) and sector (11.4%).
The positive historical results are a sign of great management; and recent data suggests the management team will continue to operate at an above average pace.
Given the positive financial results, it's no wonder analysts love the stock. The stock has 18 analysts that follow it and all have a positive rating, while 10 have it listed as strong buy.
Joy Global is expected to earn $5.93 per share this year and $7.17 in 2012. The stock currently trades near $59 which gives shares a PE of 10 and a forward PE of 8.
No matter what happens, whether it be inflation, increased commodity costs, or a stagnant developed economy, JOY Global's massive size, global reach, and exposure to the developed markets are sure to maintain solid growth well into the future.
I think shares are cheap, and believe they will trade near 15 times forward EPS, or $95, and view it as a must buy right now.
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If you insist on playing it, recognize that there are many seasoned stocks out there with much better odds.
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