Why Jefferies cut its Apple price target

Analyst Peter Misek cites decelerating growth for the world's largest tech company.

By TheStreet Staff Dec 10, 2012 12:35PM

The Apple Inc. logo is displayed on the back of the new MacBook Pro David Paul Morris, Bloomberg via Getty Imagesthestreet logo

By Chris Ciaccia

 

Apple (AAPL) is one of Wall Street's most beloved stocks, with 50 of 58 analysts rating the stock "buy," and only one rating it a "sell." So it's noteworthy anytime analysts lowers their rating and it's really noteworthy when an analyst cuts his price target, citing concerns about decelerating growth.

 

Noted Apple bull Peter Misek of Jefferies has cut his price target on the Cupertino, Calif. company, pointing to worries that Apple's growth will slow, as well as potential negative margin leverage. Misek lowered his price target to $800 from $900.

 

Though he did not lower first-quarter estimates, Misek believes Apple's growth will start to slow down in 2014, as the markets become saturated with its products. He believes Apple will launch the iPhone 5S in June or July, compared to the September and October launches for the iPhone 5, and iPhone 4S, respectively. "Based on our checks, likely updates include a new super HD camera/screen, a better battery, and NFC. Possible updates include an IGZO screen for Retina+, 128GB storage, and coming in 6 to 8 colors," Misek wrote in his note.

 

Even though Apple may push up the iPhone 5S launch, which would boost earnings per share for fiscal 2013, Misek mentioned that very early 2014 iPhone build plans indicate a deceleration in growth to around 20%, as the market becomes saturated. Apple shares took a pounding last week on reports of a margin hike at one clearing firm and concerns over component supplies falling next year.

 

Apple shares have been under siege in recent weeks, falling 21.64% over the past three months, compared to a 5.04% decline in the Nasdaq ($COMPX).

 

There are also concerns over investments in next-generation technology and more expensive semiconductor transitions, which could hurt Apple's ability to leverage margin, and bring down the earnings multiple.

 

Misek cut his iPad estimates for 2013, as iPad mini supply continues to be constrained. He cut his calendar first-quarter estimates to 20 million, and lowered his full calendar year estimate from 116 million to 100 million.

 

There's also the potential for a pre-paid iPhone, something Misek touched on in his note. He believes Apple could release such a device, though no plans have been confirmed. "We believe there is a good chance that a low-cost iPhone could be introduced at the same event as the iPhone 5S. We believe the device would primarily be targeting pre-paid markets, and emerging markets, especially in Asia. We believe the device would have a $200-$250 price point," Misek wrote in his ntoe.

 

Apple shares started the week lower, but are now up 0.29% to $534.77 in late morning trading Monday.

 

More from TheStreet.com

1Comment
Dec 10, 2012 2:01PM
avatar
Over the past year I have been stung 5 times by you and your "analyst" brethren.  5 times I bought a stock on the basis of its financial soundness and 5 times you and CNBC idiot gloom sayers have torpedoed them within days with your pile-on tactics.  That panicked the market and it dived.  You guys don't know any more than I do but I suffer form your disproportionate negative influence. However you have the luxury of no accountability while still being paid to flap your gums.  In the case of Apple, GET SOME PERSPECTIVE! You seem unhappy because it may no longer be a monopoly, EVEN THOUGH it might slip only a few percent and still rake in billions.  Do us a favor...shut the hell up!
Report
Please help us to maintain a healthy and vibrant community by reporting any illegal or inappropriate behavior. If you believe a message violates theCode of Conductplease use this form to notify the moderators. They will investigate your report and take appropriate action. If necessary, they report all illegal activity to the proper authorities.
Categories
100 character limit
Are you sure you want to delete this comment?

DATA PROVIDERS

Copyright © 2014 Microsoft. All rights reserved.

Fundamental company data and historical chart data provided by Morningstar Inc. Real-time index quotes and delayed quotes supplied by Morningstar Inc. Quotes delayed by up to 15 minutes, except where indicated otherwise. Fund summary, fund performance and dividend data provided by Morningstar Inc. Analyst recommendations provided by Zacks Investment Research. StockScouter data provided by Verus Analytics. IPO data provided by Hoover's Inc. Index membership data provided by Morningstar Inc.

STOCK SCOUTER

StockScouter rates stocks from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best, using a system of advanced mathematics to determine a stock's expected risk and return. Ratings are displayed on a bell curve, meaning there will be fewer ratings of 1 and 10 and far more of 4 through 7.

114
114 rated 1
278
278 rated 2
474
474 rated 3
641
641 rated 4
639
639 rated 5
663
663 rated 6
640
640 rated 7
499
499 rated 8
284
284 rated 9
122
122 rated 10
12345678910

Top Picks

SYMBOLNAMERATING
DYNDYNEGY Inc10
TAT&T Inc9
VZVERIZON COMMUNICATIONS9
EXCEXELON CORPORATION8
AAPLAPPLE Inc10
More

VIDEO ON MSN MONEY

ABOUT

Top Stocks provides analysis about the most noteworthy stocks in the market each day, combining some of the best content from around the MSN Money site and the rest of the Web.

Contributors include professional investors and journalists affiliated with MSN Money.

Follow us on Twitter @topstocksmsn.