Unemployment drop is good for investors
Forget the conspiracy theories about rigged data. The latest jobs numbers are bullish for retailers and consumer products companies.
Scott Hoyt, a senior director of consumer economics for Moody's Analytics, tells MSN Money that the data, which showed a gain of 114,000 in nonfarm payrolls, indicated some "data anomalies," such as a big increase in the number of part-time workers who say they want to work full time. Government jobs also showed gains, reversing recent declines.
"We were surprised by the drop in the unemployment rate," he said, adding that claims of political manipulation of economic data are not new. "You hear that every so often. . . . We have never given any credence to those claims."
If the jobless improvements hold, the holiday season may turn out to be better than retailers had expected. That is good news for a variety of companies -- including Wal-Mart (WMT), Sears Holdings (SHLD) and TJX (TJX) -- that appeal to lower- and middle-income consumers. It also includes those like Macy's (M) and Nordstrom (JWN) that appeal to wealthier shoppers. Surging consumer confidence, coupled with a rebound in real estate, will also bolster a wide array of companies, including Procter & Gamble (PG), Costco (COST) and Home Depot (HD), along with companies that cater to the wealthy, such as Tiffany & Co. (TIF).
Of course, these improvements could evaporate if Congress fails to stop the nation from tumbling off the fiscal cliff, if the situation in Europe deteriorates significantly or if China's economy overheats. Though a lower unemployment rate no doubt helps Obama's re-election chances, conspiracy theories about rigged data make no sense.
For such a diabolical plan to work, it would have to be hatched at the highest levels of government and would have to involve multiple sets of data, because the cooking of one month's report would be too easy to spot. Though other countries, including Greece and China, have been accused of fudging their data, there is no evidence that this has happened in the U.S.
Jonathan Berr is long Wal-Mart. Follow him on Twitter@jdberr.
You conservatives are pathetic.
When the numbers are bad you get a woody tearing up Obama. When the numbers are getting better you claim "liberal media bias" and the always safe "conspiracy theory" crap. All of you conservatives should be happy the economy is growing ... not that its getting worse so your people can win.
If this is the kind of America the conservatives want, with people willing to throw away a country to justify their political ends, they might as well move to Iran. You would be welcomed there.
Let's talk about how good the job market is to the RN's that just got laid off at my hospital.
High unemployment will be the new norm is Obama and the Dems stay in the White House. They want more people to be dependant on the government and to grow the government even more!!!
We need to focus on creating jobs, balancing the budget, getting people off of entitlements and taking care of our own fiscal house before we end up like the countries in the EU!!
The unemployment data comes from two sources.
The first is a representative household survey of about 60,000 American households, which is conducted monthly.
The researchers count people as employed if they have worked in the past week, and they are considered unemployed if they haven’t worked but have actively looked for work in the past four weeks. The unemployment rate is not calculated based on who is collecting unemployment benefits.
The household survey, from which that 7.8 percent unemployment rate was calculated, is considered valuable because it includes self-employed people and others who might not show up in the payroll"...
What I love more than anything is when GW was President ALL THINGS were possible. He was guilty of a range of criminal offenses that he should have been impeached according to MSN if you go back to when he was in the White House.
But now that Obama is President all of the conspiracy's that are being floated about are by NO MEANS fact. That is if you believe MSN and any other of the writers of articles that are put on this website!!
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3 stocks will be in the spotlight Thursday as investors try to make sense of the numbers from the sector.
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