Unemployment drop is good for investors
Forget the conspiracy theories about rigged data. The latest jobs numbers are bullish for retailers and consumer products companies.
Scott Hoyt, a senior director of consumer economics for Moody's Analytics, tells MSN Money that the data, which showed a gain of 114,000 in nonfarm payrolls, indicated some "data anomalies," such as a big increase in the number of part-time workers who say they want to work full time. Government jobs also showed gains, reversing recent declines.
"We were surprised by the drop in the unemployment rate," he said, adding that claims of political manipulation of economic data are not new. "You hear that every so often. . . . We have never given any credence to those claims."
If the jobless improvements hold, the holiday season may turn out to be better than retailers had expected. That is good news for a variety of companies -- including Wal-Mart (WMT), Sears Holdings (SHLD) and TJX (TJX) -- that appeal to lower- and middle-income consumers. It also includes those like Macy's (M) and Nordstrom (JWN) that appeal to wealthier shoppers. Surging consumer confidence, coupled with a rebound in real estate, will also bolster a wide array of companies, including Procter & Gamble (PG), Costco (COST) and Home Depot (HD), along with companies that cater to the wealthy, such as Tiffany & Co. (TIF). Of course, these improvements could evaporate if Congress fails to stop the nation from tumbling off the fiscal cliff, if the situation in Europe deteriorates significantly or if China's economy overheats. Though a lower unemployment rate no doubt helps Obama's re-election chances, conspiracy theories about rigged data make no sense.
For such a diabolical plan to work, it would have to be hatched at the highest levels of government and would have to involve multiple sets of data, because the cooking of one month's report would be too easy to spot. Though other countries, including Greece and China, have been accused of fudging their data, there is no evidence that this has happened in the U.S.
Jonathan Berr is long Wal-Mart. Follow him on Twitter@jdberr.
Market fading that’s because investors due their homework. Investors are checking the numbers and guess what they found, they don’t add up. Just wait till the Sequestration budget cuts kick in and 277,000 (low estimate) former military members and government contractors hit this job market. Wonder if someone in the government can wave another magic wand, but then the election will be over so there will be no need. 114,000 new jobs are not even enough to cover the new entries entering the workforce, this is insane, as has been said several times “the numbers just don’t add up”. Rigging the numbers for public consumption for a large part of the under informed, or blind, or the Obama cult members of our society before an election is almost criminal. I am so tired of being lied to by both sides. Can I please get honest news without all the blatant lies or the spin and cheerleading from both the left and the right.
Hey Jack Welsh...........My Emerson microwave doesn't explode into flames and my Maytag Washer doesn't have an exploding basket spewing parts all over the laundry room!
P.S. Talk about "cooked books"...........I loved reading about the fraud in not 1 but 2 of Jeffy Immelts divisions! How's that 1.2 billion payment to the SEC coming along?
Question: how can you talk about the unemplyment rate without looking at the employment rate? I mean if you have high unemployment rate but at the same time high employment rate, then that could be good as more people overall are getting jobs. Again another useless statistic that the media flashes before us as a smoke screen. 114000 jobs created out of 350 million people equates to a 0.03% employment rate.
What I would like to know: How many jobs were lost and total income lost (#jobs times yearly wage), how many jobs were hired on and total income hired. What percentage of the actual work force is ideled. How many people are collecting welfare.
MORE ON MSN MONEY
DATA PROVIDERS
Copyright © 2013 Microsoft. All rights reserved.
Quotes are real-time for NASDAQ, NYSE and AMEX. See delay times for other exchanges.
Fundamental company data and historical chart data provided by Thomson Reuters (click for restrictions). Real-time quotes provided by BATS Exchange. Real-time index quotes and delayed quotes supplied by Interactive Data Real-Time Services. Fund summary, fund performance and dividend data provided by Morningstar Inc. Analyst recommendations provided by Zacks Investment Research. StockScouter data provided by Verus Analytics. IPO data provided by Hoover's Inc. Index membership data provided by SIX Financial Information.
Japanese stock price data provided by Nomura Research Institute Ltd.; quotes delayed 20 minutes. Canadian fund data provided by CANNEX Financial Exchanges Ltd.
STOCK SCOUTER
StockScouter rates stocks from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best, using a system of advanced mathematics to determine a stock's expected risk and return. Ratings are displayed on a bell curve, meaning there will be fewer ratings of 1 and 10 and far more of 4 through 7.
128 | 268 | 471 | 585 | 654 | 595 | 674 | 422 | 262 | 140 |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
LATEST POSTS
The market's cheap money addiction is laid bare. No one knows how it will end.
FIDELITY VIEWPOINTS
- How to sell covered calls - Fidelity Investments
- Savvy year-end tax moves to consider now - Fidelity Investments
- Seven ways to prepare for tax changes
- Five reasons an annual review is crucial - Fidelity Investments
- Take a look at mid caps now - Fidelity Investments
- State of the sector: Health care - Fidelity Investments
VIDEO ON MSN MONEY
ABOUT
Top Stocks provides analysis about the most noteworthy stocks in the market each day, combining some of the best content from around the MSN Money site and the rest of the Web.
Contributors include professional investors and journalists affiliated with MSN Money.
Follow us on Twitter @topstocksmsn.