Unemployment drop is good for investors
Forget the conspiracy theories about rigged data. The latest jobs numbers are bullish for retailers and consumer products companies.
Scott Hoyt, a senior director of consumer economics for Moody's Analytics, tells MSN Money that the data, which showed a gain of 114,000 in nonfarm payrolls, indicated some "data anomalies," such as a big increase in the number of part-time workers who say they want to work full time. Government jobs also showed gains, reversing recent declines.
"We were surprised by the drop in the unemployment rate," he said, adding that claims of political manipulation of economic data are not new. "You hear that every so often. . . . We have never given any credence to those claims."
If the jobless improvements hold, the holiday season may turn out to be better than retailers had expected. That is good news for a variety of companies -- including Wal-Mart (WMT), Sears Holdings (SHLD) and TJX (TJX) -- that appeal to lower- and middle-income consumers. It also includes those like Macy's (M) and Nordstrom (JWN) that appeal to wealthier shoppers. Surging consumer confidence, coupled with a rebound in real estate, will also bolster a wide array of companies, including Procter & Gamble (PG), Costco (COST) and Home Depot (HD), along with companies that cater to the wealthy, such as Tiffany & Co. (TIF).
Of course, these improvements could evaporate if Congress fails to stop the nation from tumbling off the fiscal cliff, if the situation in Europe deteriorates significantly or if China's economy overheats. Though a lower unemployment rate no doubt helps Obama's re-election chances, conspiracy theories about rigged data make no sense.
For such a diabolical plan to work, it would have to be hatched at the highest levels of government and would have to involve multiple sets of data, because the cooking of one month's report would be too easy to spot. Though other countries, including Greece and China, have been accused of fudging their data, there is no evidence that this has happened in the U.S.
Jonathan Berr is long Wal-Mart. Follow him on Twitter@jdberr.
Market fading that’s because investors due their homework. Investors are checking the numbers and guess what they found, they don’t add up. Just wait till the Sequestration budget cuts kick in and 277,000 (low estimate) former military members and government contractors hit this job market. Wonder if someone in the government can wave another magic wand, but then the election will be over so there will be no need. 114,000 new jobs are not even enough to cover the new entries entering the workforce, this is insane, as has been said several times “the numbers just don’t add up”. Rigging the numbers for public consumption for a large part of the under informed, or blind, or the Obama cult members of our society before an election is almost criminal. I am so tired of being lied to by both sides. Can I please get honest news without all the blatant lies or the spin and cheerleading from both the left and the right.
THIS IS all manipulation of the numbers both side do it. Out of work for three years, construction is flat. count the empty storefronts in your town, we are not in a recovery not from where I sit. I wish it were true but I don't see it.
The Labor Department reported that new claims rose a seasonally-adjusted 4,000 to 367,000, while the four-week moving average, considered a more accurate gauge of labor market conditions, was flat at 375,000.
Hey Jack Welsh...........My Emerson microwave doesn't explode into flames and my Maytag Washer doesn't have an exploding basket spewing parts all over the laundry room!
P.S. Talk about "cooked books"...........I loved reading about the fraud in not 1 but 2 of Jeffy Immelts divisions! How's that 1.2 billion payment to the SEC coming along?
So the unemployment rate is 7.8% .......Right
And I'm Howard Cosell & this is Monday Night Football.....Woo Hoo.
I'm sure everybody with half a brain belives that these new figures are fudged to help Obama after the whipping Romney gave him in the debate.
the administration has just stopped tier 4 euc benefits for the unemployed and as people use up
their tier 3 benefits they are dropped out of unemployment , nice timing don't you think??
I wonder what would have happened or be said if the numbers went the other way...
Why doesn't it surprise me that you are pushing this as a positive for retailers since you have a long posistion in WMT!
ROFLMAO........You and all of the rest of these wall street news writers do know that pump and dump is illegal..........don't you!
Question: how can you talk about the unemplyment rate without looking at the employment rate? I mean if you have high unemployment rate but at the same time high employment rate, then that could be good as more people overall are getting jobs. Again another useless statistic that the media flashes before us as a smoke screen. 114000 jobs created out of 350 million people equates to a 0.03% employment rate.
What I would like to know: How many jobs were lost and total income lost (#jobs times yearly wage), how many jobs were hired on and total income hired. What percentage of the actual work force is ideled. How many people are collecting welfare.
The market is flat today....if the financial analyst believed these numbers the market would have taken off today!
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