Unemployment drop is good for investors
Forget the conspiracy theories about rigged data. The latest jobs numbers are bullish for retailers and consumer products companies.
Scott Hoyt, a senior director of consumer economics for Moody's Analytics, tells MSN Money that the data, which showed a gain of 114,000 in nonfarm payrolls, indicated some "data anomalies," such as a big increase in the number of part-time workers who say they want to work full time. Government jobs also showed gains, reversing recent declines.
"We were surprised by the drop in the unemployment rate," he said, adding that claims of political manipulation of economic data are not new. "You hear that every so often. . . . We have never given any credence to those claims."
If the jobless improvements hold, the holiday season may turn out to be better than retailers had expected. That is good news for a variety of companies -- including Wal-Mart (WMT), Sears Holdings (SHLD) and TJX (TJX) -- that appeal to lower- and middle-income consumers. It also includes those like Macy's (M) and Nordstrom (JWN) that appeal to wealthier shoppers. Surging consumer confidence, coupled with a rebound in real estate, will also bolster a wide array of companies, including Procter & Gamble (PG), Costco (COST) and Home Depot (HD), along with companies that cater to the wealthy, such as Tiffany & Co. (TIF). Of course, these improvements could evaporate if Congress fails to stop the nation from tumbling off the fiscal cliff, if the situation in Europe deteriorates significantly or if China's economy overheats. Though a lower unemployment rate no doubt helps Obama's re-election chances, conspiracy theories about rigged data make no sense.
For such a diabolical plan to work, it would have to be hatched at the highest levels of government and would have to involve multiple sets of data, because the cooking of one month's report would be too easy to spot. Though other countries, including Greece and China, have been accused of fudging their data, there is no evidence that this has happened in the U.S.
Jonathan Berr is long Wal-Mart. Follow him on Twitter@jdberr.
Ok...Did they fool you?
367,000 Jobless claims
114,000 Jobs gained....& that brings the unemployment down from 8.1% to 7.8% ?
Right......and just after Romney cleaned Obama"s clock at the debates...let's fudge the numbers to help Obama.
All the people that blieve that the unemployment rate is truly above 8% give me a thumbs up.
All the whining liberals that think the unemployment is 7.8% give me a thumbs down.
Romney is right. My son is one of those still unemployed but because he has fallen off the unemployment roles, it does not show up as part of the unemployment stat. Anyone who believes otherwise is very naive and does not understand how the numbers are skewed to project what the current government wants us to see. If you look at what the say they have added and then compare it to the more than 23 million still unemployed, the unemployment rate can't be a 7.8%. It is closer to 12% unemployment. It is just not possible, and the numbers don't lie.
The trouble is getting the media to tell the truth. But that won't happen because it does not support their agenda.
Obama is losing & is now resorting to "Cooking" the "Employment Books". All of a sudden 63,000 more Local, State & Fed Gov't jobs show up.
The grand total of jobs re-adjusted for the last 3 months are 146,000 new jobs. 44,000 jobs are in Healthcare. Add in those new found Gov't jobs & that equals 107,000 jobs. Jobs gained in all other areas equals 39,000, or 13,000 per month This doesn't account for the people that have retired or lost the unemployment benefits that are no longer looking for work. Bottom line is these 39,000 jobs are for the "Holiday Season" from Halloween through New Years & after that there will be another huge plunge.
MORE ON MSN MONEY
DATA PROVIDERS
Copyright © 2013 Microsoft. All rights reserved.
Quotes are real-time for NASDAQ, NYSE and AMEX. See delay times for other exchanges.
Fundamental company data and historical chart data provided by Thomson Reuters (click for restrictions). Real-time quotes provided by BATS Exchange. Real-time index quotes and delayed quotes supplied by Interactive Data Real-Time Services. Fund summary, fund performance and dividend data provided by Morningstar Inc. Analyst recommendations provided by Zacks Investment Research. StockScouter data provided by Verus Analytics. IPO data provided by Hoover's Inc. Index membership data provided by SIX Financial Information.
Japanese stock price data provided by Nomura Research Institute Ltd.; quotes delayed 20 minutes. Canadian fund data provided by CANNEX Financial Exchanges Ltd.
STOCK SCOUTER
StockScouter rates stocks from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best, using a system of advanced mathematics to determine a stock's expected risk and return. Ratings are displayed on a bell curve, meaning there will be fewer ratings of 1 and 10 and far more of 4 through 7.
126 | 258 | 459 | 600 | 670 | 682 | 602 | 455 | 271 | 112 |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
LATEST POSTS
Try as the bears might, they couldn't break U.S. stocks. But investors still face frothy prices and considerable headwinds.
FIDELITY VIEWPOINTS
- How to sell covered calls - Fidelity Investments
- Savvy year-end tax moves to consider now - Fidelity Investments
- Seven ways to prepare for tax changes
- Five reasons an annual review is crucial - Fidelity Investments
- Take a look at mid caps now - Fidelity Investments
- State of the sector: Health care - Fidelity Investments
VIDEO ON MSN MONEY
ABOUT
Top Stocks provides analysis about the most noteworthy stocks in the market each day, combining some of the best content from around the MSN Money site and the rest of the Web.
Contributors include professional investors and journalists affiliated with MSN Money.
Follow us on Twitter @topstocksmsn.