Is GM poised to break out?

The automaker should benefit from rising industry sales and improving comparisons with Ford, analysts say.

By TheStreet Staff Dec 28, 2010 3:11PM

 General Motors logo © Scott Olson/Getty ImagesBy Ted Reed, TheStreet


Wall Street has refocused on General Motors (GM), which seems poised to benefit from increased 2011 industry sales.


Since returning to the public markets on Nov. 18, GM shares have traded in a narrow window between $33 and $36. Shortly after midday Tuesday, they were trading near the high end, up 81 cents to $35.41.


As the year winds down, the outlook for GM appears positive, both because a rising tide of vehicle sales should lift all boats in the auto industry and because analysts are generally optimistic about the company's prospects.


On Tuesday, four analysts initiated coverage of GM, all with buy recommendations and price targets ranging from $43 to $50.

Credit Suisse (CS) analyst Christopher Ceraso set a price of $43. He wrote that GM trades at 3.9 times EBITDAP, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization and pension income, while Ford (F) trades at 5.5 times EBITDAP. He said the gap will narrow as new GM products come to market.


"GM's product cycle, while relatively anemic in 2011, will accelerate sharply in 2012 and 2013, about the same time that Ford's product cycle shifts into lower gear," Ceraso wrote.


Citibank set a target price of $45 and noted the limited new-product offering for 2011. "With investor expectations seeming rather low for 2011, an upside surprise cold provide a catalyst to the shares," the bank's report said.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy also set a $45 price target. Factors in GM's favor include the comparison with Ford cash flow. Additionally, Murphy wrote, after its bankruptcy, "GM is leaner and should be able to generate solid cash flow and ultimately drive value to shareholders.


"U.S. auto sales are on the verge of a cyclical recovery, European volumes are not far behind, and emerging-market growth should help," Murphy said. However, shares will have to cope with the overhanging question of when post-bankruptcy shareholders, including the U.S. Treasury, will sell their shares.


Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley (MS) analyst Adam Jones has a $50 price target, noting, "We forecast GM to generate nearly $40 million of free cash flow per day over the next five years." Jones wrote: "Finally, GM can worry about revenues, not costs." The company has competitive costs and a strong balance sheet for the first time in 50 years, he said.


Related Articles



Copyright © 2014 Microsoft. All rights reserved.

Fundamental company data and historical chart data provided by Morningstar Inc. Real-time index quotes and delayed quotes supplied by Morningstar Inc. Quotes delayed by up to 15 minutes, except where indicated otherwise. Fund summary, fund performance and dividend data provided by Morningstar Inc. Analyst recommendations provided by Zacks Investment Research. StockScouter data provided by Verus Analytics. IPO data provided by Hoover's Inc. Index membership data provided by Morningstar Inc.


StockScouter rates stocks from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best, using a system of advanced mathematics to determine a stock's expected risk and return. Ratings are displayed on a bell curve, meaning there will be fewer ratings of 1 and 10 and far more of 4 through 7.

125 rated 1
267 rated 2
455 rated 3
612 rated 4
682 rated 5
695 rated 6
632 rated 7
472 rated 8
279 rated 9
147 rated 10

Top Picks

TAT&T Inc9



Top Stocks provides analysis about the most noteworthy stocks in the market each day, combining some of the best content from around the MSN Money site and the rest of the Web.

Contributors include professional investors and journalists affiliated with MSN Money.

Follow us on Twitter @topstocksmsn.