Boeing (BA) is in an advanced stage of negotiations with United Continental (UAL) over an order for up to 180 narrow-body jets, according to Reuters.

The aircraft manufacturer is competing with Airbus for the deal -- worth about $15 billion at list prices -- and analysts speculate that a split-order is the most likely outcome. If Boeing manages to secure exclusivity, however, it would be the latest in a string of high-profile coups for the manufacturer, continuing a trend which could send its global market share above 40%.

See full analysis for Boeing here

Downturn fails to dent demand

The ongoing economic uncertainty may have forced airlines to cut capacity, but for Boeing and Airbus there is little evidence of a slowdown in demand. High oil prices have piqued customers' appetites for more fuel-efficient fleets, leading to several large scale deals -- including a 460-plane order by American Airlines (AMR).

Last month alone, Boeing secured contracts to deliver 50 long-range Boeing 777s to UAE's Emirates Airlines and 230 short-haul jets to Indonesian carrier Lion Air. Each deal is worth about $20 billion at list prices, and they include options for several hundred more jets.

According to its own conservative estimate, Boeing expects global demand for commercial aircraft to total 33,500 units between 2011 and 2030. Having delivered 1,270 commercial aircraft last year, we believe the manufacturer will capitalize on this growing demand for fuel-efficient models by raising output steadily between now and at least 2018. Our chart below illustrates how its accelerating production line activity contributes to a Trefis price estimate of $90.

Defending market share key 

While aircraft deliveries look certain to rise, Boeing's market share appears somewhat more precarious. In addition to rising competition from Brazilian, Canadian, Chinese and Russian manufacturers, Boeing remains locked in a head-to-head struggle with Europe's Airbus for dominance in the long-haul and short-haul sectors.

Both manufacturers have suffered setbacks in the long-haul sector -- with the 787 Dreamliner delivering three years late, and the A350 program now delayed by six months -- which makes securing a lead in the short-haul market all the more crucial. Given that United operates an Airbus fleet whereas Continental flies Boeing, analysts will be watching closely to see who the newly merged entity favors in upcoming orders. Any advantage to Boeing will set the U.S. manufacturer well on its way to reaching 40% global market share by 2014.

This article was submitted as part of our Trefis Contributors program. Email us at contributors@trefis.​com if you're interested in participating.