Are traditional supermarkets dying?

Groceries are losing business to big-box chains and dollar stores. There's little room for strategy in a business with razor-thin margins.

By Kim Peterson Jul 16, 2012 1:20PM
Image: Grocery shopping (© Randy Faris/Corbis)The supermarket business is in steep decline. Last year, supermarkets sold only 51% of the nation's groceries, down from 66% in 2000, The Wall Street Journal reports. That huge drop is turning the traditional supermarket business on its head.

The grocery business has scattered. People can buy groceries from all kinds of places now, leaving supermarkets in the dust.

Wal-Mart (WMT) may be the biggest threat. The discount retailer has pushed hard on grocery offerings over the past decade, adding organic produce and matching or undercutting competitors' prices. Groceries now make up about 55% of Wal-Mart's U.S. sales, the Journal reports, up from 41% four years ago.

Target (TGT) is moving in quickly as well, revamping its stores to add freezer aisles, produce, meats and bakery sections. Its Super Target stores have the most grocery items, but 75% of stores have fresh and expanded frozen food sections, the Journal reports.

Dollar stores have also risen to meet demand. Stores like 99 Cents Only, which was taken private last year in a buyout, offer a decent array of produce and dairy items along with canned goods. At the other end of the spectrum is Whole Foods Market (WFM), a niche player that has seen unexpected success even in the economic downturn. Shares of Whole Foods have risen 320% in the past three years.

Some supermarkets are now targeting male shoppers, as the following video shows.

Post continues below.
The impact on traditional grocery stores has been dramatic. Shares of Supervalu (SVU) are now just $2.37, down more than 80% in three years. "In this economy, it's simply not acceptable anymore to have prices as far out of line as ours have been," CEO Craig Herkert told the Journal.

Shares of Safeway (SWY) haven't suffered as much, falling 20% in three years. Still, the stock is very cheap, trading at just 9.2 times earnings. Kroger (KR) has held up better, trading at about 20 times earnings.

Shoppers' habits have changed, and the supermarket is no longer the twice-a-week destination for groceries, diapers and garbage bags. They'll go to Costco (COST) for some household basics, then dollar stores for others. They'll pick up items at Wal-Mart. They'll even buy items from Amazon (AMZN), which offers packaged groceries in bulk at competitive prices.

It's little surprise, then, that the grocery business is in tumult. Winn-Dixie was bought out in December. The owner of A&P came out of bankruptcy this year but isn't publicly traded.

But where can grocery stores go from here? It's tough to cut further, with margins already razor thin. Supervalu's margins are about 4.9%, the Journal reports. There isn't much room to attempt huge changes in strategy at those levels.

As improbable as it may seem, traditional grocery stores are headed to niche status. There are too many choices and too many deals for smart shoppers, and in this economy shoppers have become very wise.

More from Top Stocks
230Comments
Jul 16, 2012 6:39PM
avatar
Another thought:  I am a senior and can eat at the local buffet for $14.53 for two people.  We do this alot anymore.  It is much cheaper than cooking at home.
Jul 16, 2012 6:36PM
avatar
I shop every week and Walmart prices are higher than my grocery store.  I went to the local Target and was also not impressed with the prices.  I can still get a better deal shopping where I have shopped for years.
Jul 16, 2012 6:34PM
avatar

The reason supermarkets are dying is very poor customer service, I no longer shop at Safeway of Kroger's because of their lack of concern for the customers. I've had stockers yell at me for interrupting their conversation (they appeared to be gossiping to me). More than one time I had to walk across sticky floors, or around empty boxes in the isles. I tried to return a chicken breast that was mostly fat, only to be told that I was making things up (ended up leaving the $4.00 and the slimy dripping fatty chicken at the customer service counter). On my last visit to King Soppers a middle aged clerks was hitting on my 13 year old daughter. Who really want to put up with this kind of garbage? If these kinds of things are happen in your area whould it be a wonder that supermarkets are not dying?

Jul 16, 2012 6:33PM
avatar
I love going to the grocery store now, there is never anyone there!
Jul 16, 2012 6:29PM
avatar

Walmart is ruining the free market of capitalism...They are putting small businesses out of business in record #'s...They pay most of their work force minimum wage to keep prices lower...You can not live a decent life on $8/hr...We will all be working for Walmart soon and only be able to buy necessities from them to exist...

Is this what the American middle-class wants?..I think not...

Please bring back our anti-trust laws to protect small businesses...

Vote for OBAMA in 2012 and help end the insanity of the Republican Party RIGHT WING WACKOS...

Save America for middle-class Americans...

avatar
I happily shop at the local, unionized, non-chain grocery store. Also the unionized Safeway whenever possible. The only other grocery options here are non-union Albertson's, and anti-union Wal-Mart. I will spend a little more at the unionized shops to ensure my fellow citizens get decent union wages. Sadly, we've lost a few grocery options since Wal-Mart set up shop outside city limits.
Jul 16, 2012 6:21PM
avatar
I would hazard to guess that by the time my 6 year old granddaughter is grown up....people will be doing most of their shopping online.  It is offered by Safeway right now.  I have tried it, and it's fabulous.  You order what you want, it's cherry picked, and delivered to your home.  No gas, no parking, no crowds...I do feel bad for all the checkers that will be out of a job.  But, then again, those jobs would be transferred over to the warehouses that will replace the local grocery mart.  Sure, there will always be a need for brick and mortar stores.  But, they'll be like your local mom and pop stores.  You'll pay a premium for shopping there, but, what are you going to do when you are out of milk, butter, sugar, bread?  Also, rural areas will still have need for brick and mortar stores.  Times they are a changing.  For the better?  Who knows, only time will tell that story.
Jul 16, 2012 6:21PM
avatar

I would hazard to guess yes.  Have to keep up with the times or risk losing everything.  Prices are aoaring out of sight and now rivals that of eating out.

Jul 16, 2012 6:16PM
avatar
Traditional grocery stores are losing business because the price of food rivals that of eating out at restaurants and fast-food places.  Why prepare food when the cost to buy a prepared meal is about the same?  What's killing grocery stores,especially the chain stores, is the layers of management  and the cost of overhead.  Just another indication that we as a nation are running full-speed off the cliff.  And now, with the climate change affecting the crops, especially this year....  Look out below. 
Jul 16, 2012 6:13PM
avatar
It's all about time--if you need hard goods and food, you shop where you can get both. With tobacco companies gouging the food market and inefficient national distribution points requiring trucking of other commodities, making for unreasonably inflated prices, shoppers driven to price cutters like  WalMart. Altho' WalMart's selection is not all that great, nor is its plan-o-gram. Their generic brands are just as good and sometimes better than the national brands, who continue to cheapen their products at every opportunity.
When Dayton Hudson owed Target is was an awesome store; now Traget is little more than an expensive KMart. I went from spending 10% of income to $0 at Target. They could give away groceries but it won't save unfocused management, ill-conceived marketing and eroding employee confidence. It all shows...

Hy-Vee is a bit pricey but a wonderful grocery store chain in the middle west. Go there nearly every day.
Jul 16, 2012 6:11PM
avatar
It's all about time--if you need hard goods and food, you shop where you can get both. With tobacco companies gouging the food market and inefficient national distribution points requiring trucking of other commodities, making for unreasonably inflated prices, shoppers driven to price cutters like  WalMart. Altho' WalMart's selection is not all that great, nor is its plan-o-gram. Their generic brands are just as good and sometimes better than the national brands, who continue to cheapen their products at every opportunity.
When Dayton Hudson owed Target is was an awesome store; now Traget is little more than an expensive KMart. I went from spending 10% of income to $0 at Target. They could give away groceries but it won't save unfocused management, ill-conceived marketing and eroding employee confidence. It all shows...
Jul 16, 2012 5:59PM
avatar
Grocery stores are dying because the food-like substances they sell are killing off their customers. Perhaps they should try listening to their customers, acting responsibly and start selling actual food. Food that is locally sourced, organic and free of chemicals, pesticides, herbicides, hormones and genetically modified corn or soy. These poisons can be found in over 70% of everything they sell, including fruits, vegetables, meats and dairy products. It is a proven fact food grown without these chemicals (all of which are oil based) and the use of oil guzzling machines costs less to everyone involved. Not just in price, but in less oil consumption, lower use of pesticides ( which are directly linked to the rise in cases of autism, cancer and other dangerous health conditions), better water, better earth, cleaner air, healthier people and lower health insurance rates.
Locally owned, locally operated grocery stores are the future and the sooner the Walmarts and Krogers of the world disappear, the better off we'll all be.

Jul 16, 2012 5:57PM
avatar

The warehouse clubs are where I do most of my food shopping. Why? Because you can't beat the price even with the cost of the membership, Also the large economy sized packages sit on my shelf just as easy as the supermarkets.

I went into my local grocer just recently and a box of cereal was much more than the warehouse prices, so were many other items I buy. The  local supermarkets used to be competitive, but not anymore. Costco, Sam's Club, and BJs warehouse clubs got the supermarkets beat on the their ptices is why I tend to shop there.

Jul 16, 2012 5:39PM
avatar
I live in a small upper midwesten town of about 2200 eople. The nearest Walmart is 40 miles away. Within the past year, one of the two local grocers closed due to the owners health. He sold it to the other grocer. While the price are a bit high (they always have) I still go there because it is less expensive than making an 80 mile round trip. The small towns can't afford to lose their local grocery store. Seeing this, one of the local grocers in another town has announced that they want to expand into this town. If the grocery stores are in such decline, why would they want to  expand.  I'm not talking about the chain stores, I'm talking about the small independent store
avatar
   It would help if High School kids studied agriculture, instead of wasting their time daydreaming about being the "next big star."
Jul 16, 2012 5:34PM
avatar
And the news today says grocery prices are going to rise due to the drought situations in parts of the country.....,so how are people going to continue paying high and higher prices?....No wonder shopping habits are changing. If a person can save a dime at one store over another, guess wher they are going to go.The big chains drove the "Mom and Pop" corner grocery out years ago, now they are getting their turn from the 'discount' stores. Walmart has been causing smaller stores to fold up for years....and they continue to do it, with help from the ''dollar'' stores.
Jul 16, 2012 5:08PM
avatar
with the economy as it still is with jobs ,wage, People are and will be cautious with their money. wages are still  hard for all people , from the person making $10hr to the $25hr , taxes ,gas , and prices rising all the time.  When year ago something coast $4.00 is now $6.00 . The working class blue or whited color , is still going to look for a better deal. like shopping at Safeway and going to win co to safe.  Its not the working class that should pay, but we do, So corporate America can stay a live . Ive even found employs from one store shopping at their compator. So yes America people are going to go back and started saving for lower price, even if it takes going back to the mom and pa stores, and coupons.
Jul 16, 2012 5:03PM
avatar
The reason these markets are going out of business is the prices.   At today's grocery prices, shoppers are getting adds in their newspapers and going to each store for specific items at lower prices and not just going to one store and supposedly saving Exx amount of dollars, grocery prices have made us all better shoppers and you'd be surprised how much money is saved by comparison shopping.   For fun, use the adds and find the cheapest prices on items you'd normally buy and you will be surprised.   
Jul 16, 2012 5:02PM
avatar
Walmart will set up business right outside of your city limits so that they can avoid city taxes and regulations, undercut every competing business in town and dictate what you buy. Walmart only offerers second grade products and after they run the competition out of business, don't think  that they won't start charging first tier prices. Over 80% of Walmart's non food inventory comes from China. How many jobs does this create?
Jul 16, 2012 5:02PM
avatar
Another "Junk Reporting"story  but then NBC has a history of giving false and mis-leading information. Grocery stores are always packed with people buying, unlike Big-Box Stores, people leaving the market ALWAYS have a bag with something purchased.  When it comes to food, shopping around for PRICE & QUALITY, drives the market place.  Most people go to different places to buy specific items.  It's like going to Kentucky Fried Chicken and trying a Steak Sub, isn't going to happen today.
Report
Please help us to maintain a healthy and vibrant community by reporting any illegal or inappropriate behavior. If you believe a message violates theCode of Conductplease use this form to notify the moderators. They will investigate your report and take appropriate action. If necessary, they report all illegal activity to the proper authorities.
Categories
100 character limit
Are you sure you want to delete this comment?

DATA PROVIDERS

Copyright © 2013 Microsoft. All rights reserved.

Quotes are real-time for NASDAQ, NYSE and AMEX. See delay times for other exchanges.

Fundamental company data and historical chart data provided by Thomson Reuters (click for restrictions). Real-time quotes provided by BATS Exchange. Real-time index quotes and delayed quotes supplied by Interactive Data Real-Time Services. Fund summary, fund performance and dividend data provided by Morningstar Inc. Analyst recommendations provided by Zacks Investment Research. StockScouter data provided by Verus Analytics. IPO data provided by Hoover's Inc. Index membership data provided by SIX Financial Information.

Japanese stock price data provided by Nomura Research Institute Ltd.; quotes delayed 20 minutes. Canadian fund data provided by CANNEX Financial Exchanges Ltd.

STOCK SCOUTER

StockScouter rates stocks from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best, using a system of advanced mathematics to determine a stock's expected risk and return. Ratings are displayed on a bell curve, meaning there will be fewer ratings of 1 and 10 and far more of 4 through 7.

125
125 rated 1
272
272 rated 2
424
424 rated 3
589
589 rated 4
697
697 rated 5
589
589 rated 6
666
666 rated 7
435
435 rated 8
260
260 rated 9
144
144 rated 10
12345678910

Top Picks

SYMBOLNAMERATING
ABTAbbott Laboratories10
AIGAmerican International Group Inc10
AMTDTD Ameritrade Holding Corp10
ATVIActivision Blizzard Inc10
CACA Inc10
More
Fidelity Brokerage Services, Member NYSE, SIPC. (c) 2011 FMR LLC. All rights reserved

VIDEO ON MSN MONEY

ABOUT

Top Stocks provides analysis about the most noteworthy stocks in the market each day, combining some of the best content from around the MSN Money site and the rest of the Web.

Contributors include professional investors and journalists affiliated with MSN Money.

Follow us on Twitter @topstocksmsn.