I have often been a little early in identifying major turning points in the market or individual stocks. I recently went through this with a client and realized that although our trading models are quite precise, my timing of major market-moving events or company transitions was almost always a few months early. One might argue that being ahead of the curve allows you to prepare for what lies ahead, but Wall Street is very shortsighted and, unless your words turn out to be right tomorrow, some investors will be dissatisfied.  

My past recommendation for Apple (AAPL) is a case in point. I have warned about competition, the challenge of innovation, and margin pressures. Now I have another concern. When major executives leave a company they may be doing so because there are more attractive opportunities elsewhere. Apple had an amazing run and the best minds wanted to be part of it, but the company has made some very bad decisions recently and is losing traction. This is exactly what I warned about months ago.  

It doesn't matter who you are, how big your company is, or the reputation you had yesterday, when you sell into a consumer market you are subject to the fickle nature of consumers themselves. Just like the market, consumers are all about what you did for me lately, and many have reason to be disgruntled with Apple. The maps issue and the restriction on YouTube are just the tip of the iceberg, because many people feel as if Apple will soon try to monopolize everything; no matter how cool a product looks, anyone who feels restricted will not be happy.

Of course, improvements can be made and restrictions can be lifted, but the fickle nature of the consumer and intense competition make it very hard to maintain the growth rate Apple has realized unless the company offers a product that is almost perfect. Instead, we are seeing key executive departures, fierce competition and product setbacks. This could mark a turning point for Apple. What I predicted is now transpiring. While I was a little early, I was not wrong. Apple is not the company it once was, and its growth rate will likely decline substantially going forward.

I am concerned about Seagate (STX) as well as Apple, because without these two companies the information technology sector only grew by 0.53% in the second quarter. If Apple and Seagate (which was directly influenced by Apple) don't perform, the entire sector is going to get hit. That means beware of XLK (XLK), the technology exchange-traded fund, too. There are better ways to make money in this market.