Bernanke is smarter than your average bear
The Fed chief may not have everything figured out, but after 2 years of great stewardship, he deserves the benefit of the doubt.
You have to like a market that makes sense, that does what it is supposed to when big macro events occur that are good for earnings.
Which is why I liked last week. We have a dollar that is going down so fast that the big international companies will be able to beat numbers year over year so strongly that it makes you want to buy everything from United Technologies (UTX) and Ingersoll Rand (IR) to Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and IBM (IBM).
Last year at this time the euro was falling apart, taking with it the chances for companies like Eaton (ETN) and Honeywell (HON) -- which had expanded aggressively overseas, especially in Europe -- to beat the numbers. Now only those companies with no international winds at their back -- read the banks and the retailers -- are going to be laggards.
Health care has enough overseas exposure, and it had been behind the market for so long that people will lap it up as the specter of government intervention has faded into the rearview. And the weakness of the president means that no one in Congress is going to hector companies like UnitedHealth (UNH) and get away with it.
I know there are many people who like to fret about what a weak dollar means. I will, too, if Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pulls the rug out from his bond buying and bonds plummet. Those two things can happen. Many are betting right now that they will happen. But those who have taken that bet are running up against the natural forces of a weak dollar.
And they are losing.
This week, of course, could be different because of the possible termination of QE2. But my feeling has been that the Fed chief is smarter than the average bear. He sees all of this and -- not that he has it all figured out -- I think after two years of great stewardship the man deserves the benefit of the doubt.
At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.
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Fed keeps important 'considerable time' language in reference to short-term interest rates, but dissents and dots leave doubts.
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