Last year was one that Toyota (TM) would like to forget. The company saw its worst performance in the U.S. in three decades, as it was beset by production and distribution disruptions due to the earthquake in Japan and floods in Thailand. Losses in the U.S. by Toyota, as well as Honda (HMC), translated to gains in market share for the Detroit Three in 2011.

 Toyota was able to post a modest 0.4% year-over-year growth in the U.S. last month, while its total year sales declined by around 7%. In comparison, General Motors (GM), Ford (F) and Chrysler posted 13%, 11% and 26% growth, respectively, in the U.S. last year.
 
As Toyota's inventory continues to recover from shortages after the earthquake, the company expects that increased model availability will help it regain lost U.S. market share. Even though the floods in Thailand have disrupted Toyota's production and sales in other international markets, especially in Asia, the automaker doesn't expect any impact on its North American business.

In spite of the disruptions, Toyota has continued with its efforts to develop fuel-efficient technologies, which will help it compete with similar products launched by rivals over the last year. If nature spares the automaker, we expect that Toyota will be able to grow its U.S. market share in the medium term.

However, Toyota now expects that the yen will remain stronger against the dollar and euro, which will reduce its operating income by 160 billion yen.

Our price estimate of $76 for Toyota's stock is around 10% above the current market price.

See our full analysis for Toyota's stock here.

Read more about the adverse effect of strong Yen on Toyota's profitability in our previous article, Toyota Hobbled by The Land of the Rising Yen.