Turnarounds in the mortgage market

Speculators can play a rebound in housing via these stocks.

By TheStockAdvisors Mar 4, 2013 11:29AM
Arrow Up Photodisc SuperStockBy George Putnam, The Turnaround Letter

One interesting way to play a rebound in the housing market is through the mortgage insurance stocks. These companies provide insurance against defaults by borrowers who take out mortgages to buy homes.

When defaults and foreclosures skyrocketed, beginning around 2006, these companies suffered huge losses and some of them went out of business. The surviving mortgage insurers have been much more conservative since 2008, with the result that the new business they are writing is very profitable.

The problem, however, is that they are still trying to get out from under the poor risks that they took on prior to the meltdown in 2008. Rising home prices help the insurers get out from under these legacy problems.

As home prices begin to recover, fewer homeowners are likely to default because they can now hope to rebuild their equity in their homes. In addition, the losses on defaulted mortgages should be smaller as the homes fetch higher prices in foreclosure sales.

MGIC Investment (MTG) and Radian (RDN) are the two purest plays in this sector. Both still have risks from their legacy business, especially MGIC, which could have problems with regulators if results do not improve.

As is often the case, the stocks with the highest risks also have the highest return potential. Either stock, particularly MGIC, could end up worthless or could be worth several times its current trading level.

Mortgage insurance only represents about 22% of revenues at Genworth Financial (GNW), with the balance coming from other types of insurance and wealth management services.

Even so, the mortgage insurance has been a substantial drag on Genworth's performance, and it could turn into a positive force when the sector really turns.

Old Republic (ORI) has been trying to get out of the mortgage insurance business to focus more on its other types of insurance. Nonetheless, a rebound in the mortgage sector should help Old Republic's stock price.

Also, the company has a title insurance business and other lines that would benefit from a more active housing market.

More from TheStockAdvisors.com
0Comments

DATA PROVIDERS

Copyright © 2013 Microsoft. All rights reserved.

Quotes are real-time for NASDAQ, NYSE and AMEX. See delay times for other exchanges.

Fundamental company data and historical chart data provided by Thomson Reuters (click for restrictions). Real-time quotes provided by BATS Exchange. Real-time index quotes and delayed quotes supplied by Interactive Data Real-Time Services. Fund summary, fund performance and dividend data provided by Morningstar Inc. Analyst recommendations provided by Zacks Investment Research. StockScouter data provided by Verus Analytics. IPO data provided by Hoover's Inc. Index membership data provided by SIX Financial Information.

Japanese stock price data provided by Nomura Research Institute Ltd.; quotes delayed 20 minutes. Canadian fund data provided by CANNEX Financial Exchanges Ltd.

STOCK SCOUTER

StockScouter rates stocks from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best, using a system of advanced mathematics to determine a stock's expected risk and return. Ratings are displayed on a bell curve, meaning there will be fewer ratings of 1 and 10 and far more of 4 through 7.

127
127 rated 1
269
269 rated 2
463
463 rated 3
587
587 rated 4
658
658 rated 5
616
616 rated 6
645
645 rated 7
430
430 rated 8
262
262 rated 9
137
137 rated 10
12345678910

Top Picks

SYMBOLNAMERATING
COPConocoPhillips10
NWSNews Ord Shs Class B10
YHOOYahoo! Inc10
TJXTJX Companies Inc9
AMXAmerica Movil ADR Rep 20 Ord Shs Series L9
More
Fidelity Brokerage Services, Member NYSE, SIPC. (c) 2011 FMR LLC. All rights reserved

VIDEO ON MSN MONEY

ABOUT

Top Stocks provides analysis about the most noteworthy stocks in the market each day, combining some of the best content from around the MSN Money site and the rest of the Web.

Contributors include professional investors and journalists affiliated with MSN Money.

Follow us on Twitter @topstocksmsn.