NASDAQ is fairly valued at $30

Based on our current analysis, we believe the firm is fairly valued at our price estimate of $30.36.

By Trefis Mar 7, 2013 5:33PM
NASDAQ OMX's (NDAQ) management has been often reported as unhappy with the firm's valuation. In February, CFO Lee Shavel commented that investors were not valuing the company's diverse set of businesses, specifically the non-transaction based segments.

However, based on our current analysis, we believe the firm is fairly valued at our price estimate of $30.36. We break down the company into nine value-generating segments and each is valued separately. According to our model, non-transaction-based revenues account for over 70% of NASDAQ's current enterprise value. Here's a look into our estimates for the firm's major non-transaction-based segments and their business drivers.

Market data

This segment generates revenues in the form of fees for the information it provides to market participants. The company reported $344 million as total revenue on this business in 2012, up over 3% from the previous year. Specifically for the U.S. market data products, the year-on year growth rate is even higher at almost 7% for 2012. This gain was partially offset by a decline in NASDAQ's European market data operations revenues due to foreign exchange impacts.

We believe this segment is set to grow at a 3.5% average over our forecast period -- as product innovation, increased focus on transparency and algorithmic trading boost demand. We value the segment at $1.4 billion – about 22% of the firm's enterprise value.

Nasdaq US Market Data RevenueAccess services

The firm provides market participants various options for accessing its markets and charges a fee for that service. Revenues from this segment are in the form of monthly, quarterly or annual fees, and based on the number of memberships and registrations. The company acquired FTEN in late 2010 and, as a result, reported a jump of almost 29% in revenues in 2011. However, revenues for this segment increased by 6.7% in 2012 on growing organic demand. We believe these revenues could grow to $276 billion by the end of our forecast period, and we value the business at $912 million -- accounting for 14% of the firm's enterprise value.

Nasdaq Access Services RevenueListings

Around 3,331 companies are listed across NASDAQ's markets. Revenues earned from this division comprise annual renewal fees, listing of additional share fees and initial listing fees. We break this source of revenue into two segments: U.S. Listings and European Listings. In both segments, we expect the total number of listings to decline marginally in the near future -- as macroeconomic factors weigh down on listed firms and fewer IPOs are executed for the same reasons. We expect this trend to reverse as the economy returns to normal. We value these businesses together at around $1.2 billion, constituting 19% of the firm's enterprise value.

Nasdaq Number of US ListingsMarket technology

This small segment provides technology solutions for trading, clearing, settlement and information dissemination, and also offers facility management integration, surveillance solutions, and advisory services. In 2012, it brought in $184 million as revenues, which we expect to grow very slowly over our forecast period due to intense competition. We value the business at $633 million, accounting for 10% of the firm's enterprise value.

Nasdaq Market technology and Other RevenueYou can adjust the growth forecasts for the above drivers to arrive at your own price estimates for the company.



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