Breakthrough sets new target for S&P 500
After coming out of a 5-month reverse head-and-shoulders pattern, a high for the trend has been established.
On Thursday, stocks opened higher on better economic news, a possible new stimulus plan in Japan, and apparent progress in reaching a debt-ceiling agreement. The early gains continued for most of the day as buyers were encouraged by better-than-expected housing starts and higher building permits in December. At mid-afternoon, a lower-than-expected Philly Fed regional manufacturing index for January cut into the rally but failed to have much impact on the close.
By Thursday's close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 85 points to 13,596, the S&P 500 rose 8 points to 1,481, and the Nasdaq was up 18 points at 3,136. The NYSE traded 709 million shares and the Nasdaq crossed 389 million. On the Big Board, advancers beat decliners by 3-to-1, and on the Nasdaq, advancers were ahead by 2-to-1.
We can finally say with supporting evidence that the S&P 500 has broken free of its five-month reverse head-and-shoulders pattern. The initial target of the break is the round number of 1,500, but as explained on Investor Place's Jan. 10 Daily Market Outlook, "If the neckline at 1,466 is broken on a close, and with greater-than-average volume, a new high for the trend will have been established, and… the target would be at about 1,589."
Therefore, my target for 2013 is S&P 500 at 1,589 or higher.
Since the breakout of the S&P 500, all eyes will be on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. On Thursday, it came very near to closing higher than its five-year closing high at 13,610, and even penetrated it with an intraday high of 13,634.
A break of the old closing high and the peak high at 13,662 would trigger a Dow Theory confirmed "buy," since the transports broke to a new high several weeks ago (see Jan. 16 Daily Market Outlook on Investor Place).
Conclusion: The breakout of the S&P 500, along with a strong move against resistance by the Dow industrials, is strong evidence that the bull is back. We may have wished for more volume and breadth, but with the majority of public investors still non-believers, we may not see an increase in volume until later in the year. The strongest sectors continue to be: financials (though down Thursday), industrials, technology, housing and materials. Investors and traders should focus on these areas.
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sorry walter, that "pullback" word is simply not part of these perma-bulls lexicon. such a correction will only be "a pause in climbing this current undeserved negative wall of worry put in place by the non-believers."
china's make-believe fabricated numbers, the high unemployment, the global gdp slowdown, the european recession, the fiscal drag and/or fiscal austerity coming to the US, the "hot money" chasing the mega-cap dividend yields, the hopium injected into the markets by over $8 trillion of printed money from the central banks not backed by adequate gold reserves, the coming inflation, the extremely difficult proposition of putting this $8 trillion genie back into the bottle, AND an across-the-board two percent tax INCREASE on every American at the start of 2013 - all of these are to be discounted by a low breadth, low volume technical-only chart. it really makes you wonder where the "brain" is located in these reverse head-and-shoulders patterns.
the words "market fundamentals" are also unknown to these stock pumpers ..... 1,300 to 1,350 seems reasonable to me (only a 12% correction) .... i would be pleased with a nice 17% shakeout down to the low 1,200's - we'll see, won't we?
p.s. this super low vix and steady bullish highs at the aaii sentiment survey should surely be a set of flashing bells and whistles for the aware investor...
Good post RT - couple comments of course ...
first, i would note that there is currently a HUGE and GROWING bubble in government, corporate (especially) and high-yield bonds. the more rates are suppressed ("financial repression") the more people put money into "stable" bond funds that are mostly ETF's and Index funds - just like the 1999-2000 NASDAQ parabolic chart rise to over 5,000 (remember) and mutual funds making 250% in 1999, these index funds create a "virtuous cycle" for bonds that pulls in more and more investors as they are forced to buy bonds across the duration spectrum and not seek the short-duration safety and nimbleness of a Pimco Total Return fund for example. this bubble burst will hurt those least able to afford it - pension funds and all others who sought out safety and diversification - only to find an atomic explosion. we'll see...
secondly, what will happen here in the US? we are over the debt limit and now running the country on fumes - go see the brand spanking new category created in the top right hand corner of the usdebtclock site. very disturbing. when the inevitable spending cuts come there will be continued fiscal drag from the huge interest being charged and the forced fiscal austerity ... at some point two plus two must equal four ... this fiscal drag will take 2013-2014 nominal gdp (current price) down to zero and real gdp (adjusted to base year) into negative territory due to inflation .... negative real gdp is defacto recession .... again, time will tell ...
YIKES! be safe out there ....
Nice to read somebody that isn`t bearish for once.Most people act like the market
has dropped 80% in four years when in fact it`s up 67.4% before dividends.
RIA........Yeah thanks for the post...Informative to myself and others that want/should take time to understand...imo.
I'm not a bond investing type guy, but we do have safer savings in other instruments, CDs ,etc.
Material items, such as collectibles, maybe precious metals and real estate, can give a person/people solace also..I kinda think diversity can help anyone build savings,security and wealth...
After all I think it was Lincoln or another well known that said; "Under All is the Land."
Wife thinks all of my incursions into Wall St. are just what they are, gambling.
And only numbers on a Computer...They are hardly.
Knowing that we should probably have considered a portion in to some types of Bonds (as recommended for our age) just never have....Except when we had a broker or FA...
And don't today....But might still look into or consider, and I'm sure it would be some type of Fund or ETF, that was well balanced and managed well....?
Not being a "complete perma-bull" I do picture some sort of correction...
But as some might call "bubbles", It is not apparent to me that we have, what I call any Sectors in that mode....
Oil may be overblown...But that deals mostly with supply and demand, sometimes seasonal usage.?
Not to discount manipulation factors..
Tobacco is at all time highs...But Companies that perform and produce sales and earnings, shouldn't really touted as, out of the ordinary.
And Tech is tech, with sometimes just a few players, controlling an Index; ie; Apple,etc.
Housing and Home Improvment are in upsurges, but coming out of a "housing debacle" that is somewhat understandable, but possibly not sustainable.?
And Banks along with Financials some having "hoards" of cash are just that, with unknown factors still in their backgrounds?...They have become "a hard nut to crack."
With Companies making their numbers; Sometimes with "lower expectations", but still in long-term increasing uptrends....I do not share the D&G or thoughts of a "Major Downturn."
Corrections maybe??, which are healthy for all Markets...
Looking at maybe the low/mid 1350-1375(S&P), but do not see worst on the horizon....IMO
The DOW can correct about 300-500 any one day of a week...But to fall back to say, 12,500 may be the worst we could see for awhile...
If the Scenario of a "double dip" Recession presents itself, then all bets would be off...
I really doubt that could take hold for any length of time,and would rather bet on Inflation first..IMO.
Had a thank you for you RIa , but it did n;t post a few hours back.....So maybe try tomorrow...
Just got back from Clubs.
Yeah I was/would mention, depending on Indices and of course Equities....?
We have had some gains of much more then 67%, since Obama took office...
But then again, we came from the depths of Hell.....
Kinda think middle of the road, dosages of optimist and pessimist plays stand a better chance at success....(limopat...You appearing as someone else?)
But I prefer to be the Bull that hooks the Bear, and tosses him over the fence...
Gold near 1689 on spot market...Survey participants agree with me, for 1700 range next/this week..
But only $11 bucks short on earlier trades...wahooooo!!
Asia mixed with Japan down early.
RIA.; Have several positions similar, but no TIPS.
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