China's woes could signal a sea change
Unless the Asian giant sets up a trillion-dollar fund to buy its own merchandise, then we can forget about an economic comeback.
If Monday's sell-off, a meaningful one by any stretch, stays with us and changes the landscape, as so many people immediately intimated -- it surely didn't make anyone who was a bear more bullish -- then it will be the sell-off that will be known as the China Death Knell Decline.
Until Monday's stunner, a number out of China that was incrementally weaker always had an initially negative response followed by a more positive reverberation that came from the recognition that the Chinese government was totally on top of the situation and was about to release a stimulus program that would knock your socks off.
In other words, bad news was good news.
Bad news was just bad news. A GDP number below 8% meant that it is all over for Beijing.
The irony was lost on no one. Instantly we heard "of course (blank) would kill for that growth." And we also got plenty of people who were saying "they have the latitude to do something even bigger."
But we didn't get any follow-through, and Chinese stocks were pounded and then pounded again, and any commodity with a China bid was just crushed.
This is not reminiscent of 2008. Then, the same stocks were flying high going into the disappointment. Then they got hit, and then they came back incredibly hard, as anyone remembers the charge back to $110 from the depths of the $21 Great Recession low by Caterpillar (CAT).
These stocks couldn't bounce to save their lives Monday.
What I find amazing is that the Chinese are, in the end, stuck with the rest of us. We let them pollute and have no labor laws to protect their public to speak of, so they can take away our jobs and then send us cheap knock-offs or low-priced goods, and -- ironies of ironies -- their biggest market, Europe, doesn't have enough money to buy their goods.
I think that is what is dawning on people. The stimulus the Chinese need isn't from China.
It is from Europe.
And they aren't going to get it. So unless China sets up a trillion-dollar fund to buy its own merchandise and then give it to the Greeks and the Italians and the Spaniards, then China can take a nothing done on its comeback.
So there is no stimulus that works -- that's the market's view, not mine -- and therefore you might as well sell everything -- again, the market's view, not mine -- which is how you got such a horrific down-volume down-price day and were not be able to bounce even before disaster struck in Boston.
Jim Cramer is a co-founder of TheStreet and contributes daily market commentary to the financial news network's sites. Follow his trades for Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust and has no position in stocks mentioned.
More from TheStreet.com
"So unless China sets up a trillion-dollar fund to buy its own merchandise"
Man in Chinese WalMart......... "Why everything made in Vietnam this store?"
Cramer you have things so wrong.
First the Chinese are a command economy and I am sure that once Xi realizes that the stupid economic theories he and other leaders of China learned are wrong he will get back on track or the other Chinese leadership will kick them to the curb. Your economy can not go wrong when you have true thinking leaders in power who understand where real wealth comes from.
Second an 8 percent growth in China's economy in yuan terms swamps the 11 percent growth of China's GDP just 5 years ago merely because China's economy is a lot bigger.
Third this would suggest that China is getting about 100 to 150 million poor people into the lower middle class a year and with only 500 million people to go this means they have only 5 years left before they get most of their population out of poverty.
UNLIKE America which is growing the number of people in poverty.
China is not dead and buried. It's the USA that is dead and buried.
Bernanke is throwing about $120 billion into the stock market today in hopes of keeping it from collapse.
This effort will only make the crash worse
I don't know why the FBI and Boston police are still looking to find the perps?
I mean , "what difference does it make now " right Hillary?
years ago it was being said that China by it's shear size has enough population and internal demand for serious growth WITHOUT the usa or european markets. i still feel that is the case.
companies like CAT and Deere are involved in china's growth and until the country is "full of new roads and farms" they will do well with china related sales.
Dlh - Many of the factories in Vietnam are already owned by the Chinese.
They have been there for years.
Yo-Yo, mon ??....today.
ABS....Nope I don't read all the post, just some that pertain to Market ideas, Investing and some Current events...The rest like many of mine, were/are a lot of dribble or repetitiuos in Nature.
But I was wrong. I don’t know what’s going to be revealed to be behind all of this mayhem. One human insect or a poisonous mass of broken sociopaths.
But here’s what I DO know. If it’s one person or a HUNDRED people, that number is not even a fraction of a fraction of a fraction of a percent of the population on this planet. You watch the videos of the carnage and there are people running TOWARDS the destruction to help out. (Thanks FAKE Gallery founder and owner Paul Kozlowski for pointing this out to me). This is a giant planet and we’re lucky to live on it but there are prices and penalties incurred for the daily miracle of existence. One of them is, every once in awhile, the wiring of a tiny sliver of the species gets snarled and they’re pointed towards darkness.
But the vast majority stands against that darkness and, like white blood cells attacking a virus, they dilute and weaken and eventually wash away the evil doers and, more importantly, the damage they wreak. This is beyond religion or creed or nation. We would not be here if humanity were inherently evil. We’d have eaten ourselves alive long ago.
So when you spot violence, or bigotry, or intolerance or fear or just garden-variety misogyny, hatred or ignorance, just look it in the eye and think, “The good outnumber you, and we always will.”
Did you morons know that your internet provider gives you an IP address? Did you know this IP address is like a ZIP CODE? What country, what state, what city, what area. It's all there in the IP address.
You are not as anonymous as you think. The FBI uses it all the time. Anyone with a half-brain can figure out were you are. I can deal with the bitter partisan in here but some of the rants are over the top. My father has a good saying......say what you want, say what you think, but never say it in pen and Ink.....
"NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks rose on Tuesday after the worst decline since November in the prior session as gold's price made a modest recovery and government data on inflation and housing signaled an improving economy."
Apparently there were a million housing starts in March. The average buyer makes $8/hour and the average seller (existing homeowner) is job-less and underwater. When do we challenge this crap and lock the Kool Aid addicts out of the office? IF a million new starts sell and the credit goes South, Bernanke prints another TRILLION to offset their damage in the economy. Do any of us want that?
No not too many "lefty leanings"....Sometimes only to balance out far right rantings..
More of a Moderate really, and a Fiscal Conservative..
Believeing in the First and Second Amendents and others..And America "first"..
Own guns and fast cars....no limos.
But believe in a women's choice...
Yes, I got beat up on Gold yesterday, but actually did a little DCAveraging on about 500 shares.
And picked up some ConocoPh. (COP) while it was depressed down..It's up .85 cents today. 4.6 div.
But lost my azz, at Casino last night...
My helper just arrived, got work to do.....Have a Good Day..
Funniest post of the day goes to V_L
"You might also notice that after you command your office staff to thumb me down, my posts rise again. I speak the truth..."
Now that some funny shlt
Good job Re-TOG. I picked up an additional 129 shares of Conocco at $57.74. Could have held out for a better price, but I try not to be greedy.
Markets "should" end up in the "black", today....Un-bearing any bad earnings..or bs.
Between +50-100, unless a run at the end..
Gold was up close to $50...pre-market and early.
Copyright © 2014 Microsoft. All rights reserved.
Fundamental company data and historical chart data provided by Morningstar Inc. Real-time index quotes and delayed quotes supplied by Morningstar Inc. Quotes delayed by up to 15 minutes, except where indicated otherwise. Fund summary, fund performance and dividend data provided by Morningstar Inc. Analyst recommendations provided by Zacks Investment Research. StockScouter data provided by Verus Analytics. IPO data provided by Hoover's Inc. Index membership data provided by Morningstar Inc.
Serious issues like drought and the deterioration of the developed world spell opportunity for this industry leader.
VIDEO ON MSN MONEY
Top Stocks provides analysis about the most noteworthy stocks in the market each day, combining some of the best content from around the MSN Money site and the rest of the Web.
Contributors include professional investors and journalists affiliated with MSN Money.
Follow us on Twitter @topstocksmsn.