Which earnings can we trust?

We have some winners over losers and some cyclical trends that only some companies are playing in.

By Jim Cramer Jul 25, 2012 10:35AM

Whom do you trust?


Do you trust Norfolk Southern (NSC) with great volumes in chemicals, oil, wood and automotive, with some possible turn in coal? Or do you trust UPS (UPS), which talked about business falling off a cliff. Do you trust Riverbed (RVBD), Broadcom (BRCM) andAltera (ALTR), all talking about increased telecom and wireless spending, or do you fret about Apple (AAPL)? Do you buy into Buffalo Wild Wings' (BWLD) sudden decline in growth or do you bank with Panera (PNRA) Wednesday and Domino's (DPZ) Tuesday?

 

How hard is this game?

 

So let's suss it out. I think we have some winners over losers and some cyclical trends that only some are playing in.

 

NSC was terrific because it had enough business to augment a decline in coal, a decline, by the way, that will end if the heat keeps up. Automotive was terrific. Anything housing related was amazing. The Bakken and the Marcellus are generating tremendous demand for shipping oil and oily liquids to refineries.

 

UPS? Major moves into Europe and Asia simply aren't paying off.

 

Domino's? Great franchise model and raw costs are actually going down while they are going up for Buffalo Wild Wings. When commodity prices go down, just call it a win. When they double like they did for BWLD, you have a loss.

 

The telecom story seems like it's about who has the right products for a 4G build out and who is in the sweet spot with the telco companies that simply must spend. I believe them.

 

Also, while the relative number for Apple and Phones may have not been huge, the build out for the iPhone 5 and the new Samsung phones plus the iPad is simply not stopping. So, these companies did well, plus Broadcom's got some terrific set-top box business going. I often wonder if Cisco (CSCO) is seeing so much commoditizing that it will keep going lower, although a part of Broadcom does well if Cisco does well. Hewlett-Packard(HPQ), not that long ago, was going into networking. I think HPQ is going away. It is the JC Penney (JCP) of tech.

 

Perhaps the best analogue of the moment came Tuesday from Whirlpool (WHR), which missed the quarter. Europe was weak. Brazil was terrible. But the U.S. was strong. Housing is coming back. Automotive in the U.S. is coming back. Oil is back. Chemicals are back.

 

It's just that those are all bad in Europe and some bad in Asia and those two now offset whatever we've got going, which is why the confusion, right now, is so palpable.

 

Random musings: You can always make it easy on yourself. Lilly (LLY) boosts its forec ast even as Zyprexa is diminishing now that it is off patent. Regeneron (REGN) remain the single-best-growth pharma story off that amazing Eyelea number.



Jim Cramer is a co-founder of TheStreet and contributes daily market commentary to the financial news network's sites. Follow his trades for Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust and is long AAPL and BRCM.

 

 

 

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7Comments
Jul 25, 2012 11:17AM
avatar
When it comes to financial institutions, stock brokerage firms, financial analysts, stock brokers, our government etc. DON"T TRUST ANY OF THEM!!  They have a proven track record of lies, manipulation and corruption...so you do your own due diligence and make decisions on what you find out. 
Jul 25, 2012 12:21PM
avatar

most have been warned by us or BURNED by the scamster so soon this site will be reduced to comments from the lonely bots advertising their ripp off whore business......this is how it should be

as cramer is equal to them

Jul 25, 2012 2:34PM
avatar

it really isn't hard cramer........avoid individual stocks because NOBODY can know if they are honest

or if the CEO is going to blunder, or if their product is going to injure or kill someone.

 

own etf's which give you instant diversification and properly hedge these etf's to enhance the returns.........

this strategy beats the market and takes dishonesty out of the equation

OH THAT'S RIGHT YOU HATE ETF'S AND RECOMMEND INDIVIDUAL STOCKS BECAUSE

YOU WANT DISHONESTY  IN THE EQUATION SO YOU CAN PUMP AND DUMP.....

something you can't do with an ETF

Jul 25, 2012 11:51AM
avatar

this scam boy says you can't trust these companies and he will turn right around and say that

homework and rigor can beat the market by buying best of breed..........what a joke this

hack criminal puts on his inane followers

Jul 25, 2012 12:52PM
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life is so lonely ..........i am the great jim cramer..........everyone is onto my scam......

i am the only one left who thinks i am great ..............please please buy my newsletter.....you

can trust me .......really you can........log onto my site jimisgreatinhismind.com and receive free

stock picks...........don't miss this once in a lifetime opportunity

Jul 25, 2012 11:49AM
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who not to trust.............the scamster knows it surely isn't him so he purposely uses this headline

 

Jul 25, 2012 11:28AM
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Suss it out.  Based on David Suskind.  Wow, that makes me feel old.

 

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