Why investors shouldn't overlook Wells Fargo

The 'littlest' big bank is on a tear in 2012.

By InvestorPlace Feb 7, 2012 2:09PM
Image: Piggy bank (© Corbis)By Dan Burrows


Is Wells Fargo (WFC) the Rodney Dangerfield of the nation's biggest banks? It sure seems like the firm gets no respect.


After all, Wells Fargo is the country's fourth-biggest bank by assets, after JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C). Heck, it's larger than high-profile Wall Street titans Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS). And yet too often Wells Fargo seems to fall through the cracks when it comes to consideration of financial sector stocks.


Partly that's because Wells Fargo is really more of a giant regional bank. It's not an international player. And as the nation's largest commercial lender, Wells Fargo's future is tightly tied to the state of the U.S. economy. Indeed, about 95% of it's loans are domestic.


That makes Wells Fargo a less sexy name -- and prevents the firm from cashing in on international economic growth. On the other hand -- and this is no small concern -- it also helps insulate Wells Fargo from the debt crisis in the eurozone.


Whatever the reason, it seems the stock gets too little attention as a bet on big banks. That's too bad, because Wells Fargo has been on a tear ever since the market started rallying around Thanksgiving. The stock is up more than 9% year-to-date, beating the S&P 500 by 3 percentage points. More impressive, going to back to Nov. 24 when the most recent bull run began, Wells Fargo is up almost 30%, clobbering the broader market by 15 percentage points.


Wells Fargo delivered some of the best fourth-quarter earnings among financials this season. The bank's profit jumped 20%, helped by strong deposit and lending growth. Earnings per share beat Street estimates by a penny, and although revenue slipped 4%, the top line also eclipsed analysts' average estimate.


More important, revenue grew quarter-over-quarter, which was one of the biggest overhangs on the stock, notes Guggenheim analyst Marty Mosby, who rates shares a "buy."


"WFC's revenues increased this quarter by $1 billion sequentially," Mosby wrote in a recent note to clients. "The greatest investor worry for WFC has been revenue growth, especially significant net interest margin compression."


The bank also bounced back from a disappointing third-quarter report to show accelerating loan growth, a stronger balance sheet and improved expense leverage, all the while beating "relatively high expectations," notes Todd Hagerman, an analyst at Sterne Agee, who rates shares a "buy."


"Our sense is that WFC's attractive earnings multiple will continue to gain momentum as the company's strong underlying earnings power and top tier profitability metrics once again take center stage," Hagerman wrote in a recent note to clients.


Even after the run-up, shares in Wells Fargo still appear to offer a compelling value proposition. The stock currently trades at a 28% discount to its own five-year average on a forward price-to-earnings basis, according to data from Thomson Reuters. And by trailing earnings, the stock offers a 31% discount to its own five-year average.


Meanwhile, analysts' median price target stands at $35. Add in the 1.6% yield on the dividend, and Wells Fargo has an implied upside of about 18% in the next 12 months or so.


Given its improving fundamentals, attractive valuation and a string of better-than-expected U.S. economic news, Wells Fargo looks like an undervalued -- and underappreciated -- bank stock.


And if you like under-the-radar bank stocks, you might find this play on BB&T (BBT) interesting.


As of this writing, Dan Burrows did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.


Related Articles:

0Comments

DATA PROVIDERS

Copyright © 2013 Microsoft. All rights reserved.

Quotes are real-time for NASDAQ, NYSE and AMEX. See delay times for other exchanges.

Fundamental company data and historical chart data provided by Thomson Reuters (click for restrictions). Real-time quotes provided by BATS Exchange. Real-time index quotes and delayed quotes supplied by Interactive Data Real-Time Services. Fund summary, fund performance and dividend data provided by Morningstar Inc. Analyst recommendations provided by Zacks Investment Research. StockScouter data provided by Verus Analytics. IPO data provided by Hoover's Inc. Index membership data provided by SIX Financial Information.

Japanese stock price data provided by Nomura Research Institute Ltd.; quotes delayed 20 minutes. Canadian fund data provided by CANNEX Financial Exchanges Ltd.

STOCK SCOUTER

StockScouter rates stocks from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best, using a system of advanced mathematics to determine a stock's expected risk and return. Ratings are displayed on a bell curve, meaning there will be fewer ratings of 1 and 10 and far more of 4 through 7.

127
127 rated 1
269
269 rated 2
463
463 rated 3
587
587 rated 4
657
657 rated 5
616
616 rated 6
645
645 rated 7
431
431 rated 8
262
262 rated 9
138
138 rated 10
12345678910

Top Picks

SYMBOLNAMERATING
COPConocoPhillips10
NWSNews Ord Shs Class B10
YHOOYahoo! Inc10
TJXTJX Companies Inc9
AMXAmerica Movil ADR Rep 20 Ord Shs Series L9
More

LATEST POSTS

Scary story: the 2013 market looks like 1987

All hail the bull market, which ended the week with a big rally. But it also is starting to look a little like 1987, which suffered an epic blow-out.

Fidelity Brokerage Services, Member NYSE, SIPC. (c) 2011 FMR LLC. All rights reserved

VIDEO ON MSN MONEY

ABOUT

Top Stocks provides analysis about the most noteworthy stocks in the market each day, combining some of the best content from around the MSN Money site and the rest of the Web.

Contributors include professional investors and journalists affiliated with MSN Money.

Follow us on Twitter @topstocksmsn.