Is Taco Bell gain causing Chipotle pain?

Chipotle is seeing a slowdown in sales growth. Could that have anything to do with Taco Bell's new momentum?

By Kim Peterson Aug 3, 2012 3:07PM
The chief financial officer of Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) has completely dismissed any suggestion that his company is suffering as Taco Bell's business has surged.

Is he right? Let's look at the facts.

Taco Bell, owned by Yum Brands (YUM), saw same-store sales soar 13% in the quarter ended June 16. Taco Bell's impressive showing was fueled largely by its Doritos Locos Tacos, which launched in March and became the most successful launch in company history. Taco Bell sold 100 million of these tacos in 10 weeks.

Qdoba Mexican Grill has also seen an uptick in sales, though not nearly to the extent that Taco Bell has. Qdoba, owned by Jack in the Box (JACK), said its same-store sales rose 3% in the second quarter.

Compare that with Chipotle, whose stock crashed last month after second-quarter revenue growth came in below analyst expectations. Same-store sales only rose 8% in the quarter ended June 30, which, although still meaningful, wasn't the 10% gain analysts expected.

So can we connect the dots? Can Taco Bell's gain be impacting the slowdown at Chipotle? CFO Jack Hartung dismisses the idea completely.

"The experience we provide is very different from Taco Bell's," Hartung told Jim Cramer Thursday on CNBC's "Mad Money" program. "We don't think our customers are on their way to eat lunch or dinner, and are thinking, 'Gee, should I have Taco Bell or should I have Chipotle?'"

Hartung added that he didn't see any sort of customer tradedown in the Mexican-themed fast-food business. Customers aren't choosing Taco Bell's lower prices over Chipotle.

"Our customers, they don't talk about deciding to go get a burrito and where should they get that from," Hartung said. "They talk about having a meal that they want to enjoy and they think about Chipotle. So they don't think burrito first, and then Chipotle."

So is he right? I don't buy it. I think many customers definitely think about what kind of food they want and then where to get it. Taco Bell is having a great year, ramping up advertising for its new offerings and reinventing itself after a prolonged downturn when a lawsuit last year questioned the quality of its beef.

The second quarter results don't include the new "Cantina Bell" menu from Taco Bell, which launched in July. The Cantina Bell effort is a clear attempt by Taco Bell to attract Chipotle customers, although neither company wants to admit that.

Is it working? So far, the reviews for Cantina Bell items have been fairly positive. "For practically half the price, the Cantina Bell menu is a definite value, but you do get what you pay for, and the overall quality and taste of Chipotle still has a slight edge over Taco Bell," writes reviewers from Zagat.

The third-quarter results from both companies should prove very interesting, and shed more light on this. Yum Brands' quarter will include the new sales from the Cantina Bell menu, and will offer a better look at the contributions from the Doritos Tacos line after the initial hype around the launch has disappeared.

It may be too early to definitively say that Taco Bell is eating some of Chipotle's business, but the signs are there.

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38Comments
Aug 3, 2012 7:10PM
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tried the Taco bell bowl  yuck  not good with lettuce

dont waste your time and money

 

Aug 3, 2012 6:50PM
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Qdoba needs to expande more to other places. For example colleges. I am from Louisville, ky and love Qdoba but there are none in BowlingGreen, Ky where I had to move to go to College the closest Qdoba is about an hr away in nashville and yes me and a few friends have gone to Nashville just for Qdoba. The only other place we have is Moes and it cant even compare to Qdoba in my mind and to a lot of other peoples minds. I really think if there was a better expantion of the market Qdoba would have no problem.

Aug 3, 2012 6:36PM
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The service at Chipotle has gone down hill!! Five years ago they delivered excellent service. Now, it seems you are bothering the staff when you go in and order something. Chipotle needs to get back to its roots.

Aug 3, 2012 6:36PM
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The service at Chipotle has gone down hill!! Five years ago they delivered excellent service. Now, it seems you are bothering the staff when you go in and order something. Chipotle needs to get back to its roots.

Aug 3, 2012 5:56PM
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Chipolte is way overpriced. Food is OK but nothing outstanding. I hate the dining area of their restaurants. Looks like a prison dining hall. Taco Bell at least has booths, and tables. The service is faster and the selection better at Taco. I can get a much tastier meal at several of the local family owned Italian restaurants at the same price as a Chipolte burrito and drink.
Aug 3, 2012 5:29PM
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The cantina bowl at taco bell was disgusting.  Mostly rice & shredded lettuce.  Yuck!
Aug 3, 2012 5:29PM
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Taco Bell= Fat. Chipotle= more healthy and fresh. Of course Taco Bell is doing better. People are too lazy and fat to go into a healthier choice place... better to eat the lard through the drive thru..
Aug 3, 2012 5:28PM
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People don't generally compare Chipotle to Taco Bell. If I want a filling burrito bowl for $6.25 over the same amount of food from Taco Bell for around $8 I'll drive across town to get it. You can ask for extra rice and everything but meat for free, they're more than happy to take care of you. 
Chipotle is like a high end fast food restaurant and, compared to other restaurants like Wendy's Arby's, KFC, etc, have pretty reasonable prices. 

As for quality, comparing Taco Bell to Chipotle is like comparing Little Caesar's to Pizzeria Uno, no comparison. You want quality locally grown produce, rBGH free dairy and steak, food with integrity you go to Chipotle.
If you want m****duced dog food quality "meat substitute" go get some taco bell.

Aug 3, 2012 4:58PM
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Chipotle raised their prices and rarely offer any type of promotion.

The food is good, but I don't value a burrito bowl and drink at $11.00.

For $14.00 I can get a Fajita platter at Pappasitos. 

 

Have not tried Taco Bell's new menu,but it would appear they are attempting to close the quality gap.

Aug 3, 2012 4:50PM
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All I heard that chipotle serves is burritos.  Taco Bell has such a variety of menu items you can decide to have a burrito, taco, crunch wrap, taco salad, cantina bowl, nacho supreme, chalupa, etc.  Sorry, I am not paying for an over priced burrito even if it might be better quality.  I get more variety for my dollars at Taco Bell. 

Aug 3, 2012 4:12PM
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I wonder where I can find some Chipotlaway. Im tired of srubing the stains out my...delicates .
Aug 3, 2012 4:10PM
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Chipotle is expensive and are slow to get your food.They also serve you as if you were bird-sized. Cheapskates in my opinion.  Over-hyped for sure. Taco Bell is just as healthy and cheaper. 
Aug 3, 2012 3:55PM
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There isn't a chipotle within 300 miles of me, in fact stores are few and far between.  I don't normally eat at taco bell, but with their new menu, I'm going to give it a try.  I think with so many restaurants throughout the nation, they will definitely give chipotle a run for their money.  I don't expect it to be quite as good as hipotle, but it will probably beat driving 300 miles.
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