Shares of FedEx (FDX) slumped Tuesday after the shipper slashed its profit outlook for the the fiscal year, underscoring investors' growing unease about the slowdown in the worldwide economy.

FedEx expects to earn $6.20 to $6.60 per share in fiscal 2013, down from an earlier forecast of $6.90 to $7.40. That misses the $7.04 expected by Wall Street analysts. FedEx projects earnings to be 1.30 to $1.45 in the quarter, below the $1.67 consensus forecast. The reasons offered by CFO Alan B. Graf Jr. have a familiar ring to them.

"Earnings for the first quarter were below our expectations as weak global economic conditions dampened revenue growth, drove a shift by our customers to our deferred services and outpaced our near-term ability to reduce FedEx Express operating costs to match demand levels," he said in an earnings press release.

Though Graf is making it sound like the world is coming to an end, the reality is a bit murkier. For instance, FedEx's results in the most recent quarter were not great, but they were not godawful either. Net income fell 1.1% to $459 million, or $1.45 a share, from $464 million, or $1.46 a share, a year earlier, beating the $1.40 consensus forecast. Revenue rose 3% to $10.79 billion, ahead of the $10.7 billion Wall Street expected.

Investors should be skeptical about FedEx's claims.

Consider the earnings guidance. The range of the forecast for fiscal 2013 is 40 cents, wide enough to drive a truck through. FedEx is playing the "earnings game," whereby companies place the bar so low that, barring an alien invasion, the company will "make its numbers."

The future for FedEx isn't bright, but its not terrible either. Indeed, though consumer confidence fell recently, economists are expecting an OK holiday season.

FedEx isn't hunkering down in the face of uncertain economic headwinds. The company raised rates on FedEx Freight by 6.9% in July and will increase shipping rates on U.S. domestic, U.S. export and U.S. import services by a net average of 3.9%, effective in January. FedEx is expected to unveil a broad cost-cutting plan in October, which CEO Frederick Smith said will not include layoffs, according to a spokeswoman.   Shareholders will see the benefits of the cost cutting fairly quickly.

Though consumers are using slower, cheaper forms of shipping, they're still going to ship plenty of goods by air. As the holiday season draws closer, more consumers will probably take advantage of next-day shipping, though perhaps not as many as in previous years. The U.S. economy may be showing signs of distress, but unlike Europe, it's still growing.
 
Wall Street hasn't lost faith in FedEx. The average 52-week price target on the stock is $103.67, about 16% higher than where it trades now. FedEx's stock appears to be cheap. It trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.94, near its five-year low, according to Reuters.

FedEx may be a bellwether of the economy, but investors shouldn't read too much into how it manages earnings expectations.

Jonathan Berr does not own shares of the listed stocks. An earlier version of this post said that the company probably would lay off employees. Follow him on Twitter@jdberr.